RADIO
Justin Carter breaks down game tape of Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jordy Nelson's recent performance to help fantasy football owners get a sense of his value heading into Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season.
For this week's "Tape Don't Lie," choosing a player to analyze was pretty difficult. There was a rookie wide receiver who caught three touchdowns, but there was also a veteran wide receiver who hauled in six catches for 173 yards and a touchdown, which seemed to come out of thin air after two sub-par games to start the season.
So, let's talk about Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jordy Nelson. Is this the start of something or just a mirage?
Before I get into the analysis, here's a quick list of guys who were considered for this list with my ultimate reason for leaving them off: Josh Allen (because, honestly, I'm not ready to spend time looking at Allen), Calvin Ridley (everyone is already writing about Ridley this week), and Albert Wilson (who I love, but both touchdowns were on trick or trick-adjacent plays, so not much to say about that.)
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Jordy Nelson: Tape Don't Lie
Background Information
Jordy Nelson's NFL history is well documented. As a member of the Green Bay Packers, Nelson was a top fantasy option for years while catching passes from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. From 2011 to 2016, Nelson played a full 16 games four times. In each of those seasons, he finished with at least 1200 yards and eight touchdowns. Included in that is a 1519 yard season and a 15 touchdown season.
But injuries have sapped Nelson of his effectiveness. Last season, he posted just 482 receiving yards in 15 games, posting the lowest catch rate of his career. He ranked 88th among wide receivers in quarterback rating when targeted, 63rd in fantasy points per target, and 84th in air yards. He wasn't being used as a threat down the field but he also wasn't providing a safe option for his quarterback either. It was a classic "this guy might be done" season. Signing with Oakland in the offseason felt like one of those moments when a once-good player goes out in a fizzle of inconsistency.
Through two games, it looked like we were on track for that, with Nelson recording five catches for 53 yards, but in Week 3 he exploded, grabbing six passes for 173 yards and a score. Is this a turning point for Nelson? Or should we stay away from the veteran wideout?
Jordy Nelson's Game Tape
On Sunday, Nelson actually played a season-low percentage of Oakland's offensive snaps, down from 97 percent in Week 1 to 72 percent this week. So, right off the bat we have a negative for Nelson.
Let's look at all seven of Nelson's catches this week and see if the game tape matches what the stats showed.
Nelson's first catch went for 61 yards. He comes from the inside of the formation to catch a crossing route just past the first down marker, avoids the tackle from the defensive back, and then ends up in a footrace with linebacker Jerome Baker. Nelson has regressed as age and injury have caught up, but he can still outrun most linebackers in the open field. He's eventually forced out of bounds as Baker gets a good angle on him, but overall it's a nice play from Nelson, even if it's aided by the missed tackle early. Smart decision to run toward the sideline after the catch.
Jordy Nelson was just wide, wide open in the end zone on his touchdown reception. The Dolphins are going heavy on the zone here -- you can see that the three linebackers barely move on this play -- which allows Nelson to get behind that coverage into an open spot in the end zone. By the time T.J. McDonald realizes that maybe he needs to pick Jordy up, it's too late -- the ball's in his hands and he's celebrating his first touchdown of the season. The coverage really helped make this play possible, but I'm also not going to sit here and completely disregard Nelson's route and how that helped him exploit the zone.
Speaking of Jordy Nelson's routes, let's pause for a second and look at his route tree from Sunday, courtesy of Next Gen Stats, because I'm starting to notice a pattern:
All six completions begin on the left side of the formation; five of those end in Nelson heading right, while the other results in him heading back toward the left sideline. Those routes by Nelson suggest to me that the Raiders saw a soft spot in the middle of the field and used Nelson to take advantage of that. It obviously worked on those first two plays, though it doesn't have the same effectiveness on some of the team's later throws.
Anyway, back on topic. Catch number three:
This is my favorite Jordy Nelson catch of the day. Starting from the outside, Nelson is able to show that he still has speed while beating out defensive backs in a race down the field. This isn't Jordy taking advantage of a slower linebacker; he's holding off faster players long enough to make something happen. Sure, it's set up by a poorly executed dive by Bobby McCain, but that shouldn't take away from how impressive the play is.
This one looks like the plan is to do what happens in the first one -- Nelson will catch the pass and then take off to the right -- but it's spoiled by McCain's tight coverage, so Nelson makes the grab but then immediately goes down. Nelson needs to be used almost exclusively inside/in the slot at this point, because he isn't fast enough to make anything happen after the catch here when there's tight coverage. Still, good hands.
Same situation here. Nelson on the outside, makes the catch but has no separation. As good a linebacker as Kiko Alonso is, I think we can agree that this play as a higher likelihood of producing results if Nelson runs it out of the slot. Again, it's not a bad play -- it gets the Raiders a first down -- but the lack of separation makes it a difficult play to count on on a game-to-game basis.
Nelson's final catch comes out of the slot, though he's guarded by a defensive back here and not a linebacker. Still, moving him inside works here, allowing him to get the ball on another crossing route, turn up field, and get a few extra yards before being tackled. Nelson still doesn't get a huge amount of separation, but he puts himself in a spot where Derek Carr can make a good play.
Final Thoughts
So, what do I ultimately think about Jordy Nelson? The same thing I thought about him before the season: to be an effective weapon both in real life and in fantasy football, the Raiders have to commit to playing him in the slot and getting him the ball in the middle of the field. Nelson doesn't have game-breaking speed at this point. If you put him in single coverage on the outside, you'll end up with an incompletion or a player who goes down immediately after getting the ball. If you let him work over the middle, exploiting the soft spots in teams that play the zone and getting him one-on-one matchups against linebackers, Nelson can still be successful.
Is that chance of success worth a spot in your fantasy lineups? Probably not. Week 3 is likely the best we'll see Jordy play this season. Keep an eye on him and how the Raiders use him moving forward, but don't expect to see Nelson with those huge yards after the catch numbers again anytime soon.
