Are You a Shane Bieber Belieber?

July 6, 2019

Cleveland Indians right-hander Shane Bieber has gotten off to an excellent start in the 2019 season. Andy Patton examines if his numbers are legit and tells you what you should do with him for the rest of the season.

Cleveland Indians right-handed pitcher Shane Bieber has been among the best starting pitchers, both in fantasy and in real life, during the 2019 season. In a year where so many studs are struggling - including Justin Verlander, Blake Snell, Trevor Bauer and Chris Sale - Bieber's consistency has vaulted him into ace territory, and will surely make him a hot commodity over the All-Star break.

If you are a proud Bieber owner - congratulations! The big question now is if you should ride out this amazing season that has seen him post a 3.54 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 31.7% K rate, or if you should be looking to deal him at top dollar, cashing out after a remarkable first half.

Here is a primer on Bieber's history, pitch mix and peripherals from the first half, giving you a better idea of what to expect from the 24-year-old the rest of the way.

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Who is Shane Bieber?

Bieber shot his way through the minor leagues after the Indians plucked him in the fourth round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of UC-Santa Barbara. It only took 28 appearances before Bieber reached Double-A during the 2017 season, and he only needed 14 starts there before he found himself in Triple-A in 2018.

He registered eight starts with Triple-A Columbus, going 3-1 with a 1.66 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP, before he reached the big leagues. He's been with the Indians ever since.

Bieber's minor league numbers definitely give some credence to his success in the big leagues - particularly his control. Bieber's highest walk percentage in the minors was 3.4%, during those eight starts with Columbus. He was under 2% at most of his other stops, demonstrating the elite level control that he has continued to display in the big leagues.

His 4.7% walk rate in 2018 was in the top-6% of the entire league, and his 5.5% this year is elite as well.

While the minor league walk rate may have pointed toward his big league success, his strikeout numbers did not. Bieber sat between a 22-25% strikeout rate all throughout the minors, only reaching up to 26.7% during those eight starts at Columbus.

His first big league season, a 20-game showing in 2018, saw him post a 24.3% strikeout rate - roughly in line with his minor league production.

That number has jumped considerably in 2019. He currently sports a 31.7% rate, giving him a 11.47 K/9 on the year - which ranks in the top-8% of the league.

So the control is real, but what about the strikeouts? For that, let's take a look at his pitch mix:

Pitch Mix

Bieber sports a pretty standard four-pitch mix: four-seam fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. Here's a look at each of those pitches and how he is effectively mixing them to generate strikeout success this season:

Fastball

Bieber's fastball has nearly 10 inches of arm-side run, making it appear more like a two-seamer and serving as an effective set-up pitch for his breaking stuff which goes the other way. He averages 93.4 miles per hour and gets up to 95 with it on occasion. He attempts to live up with the heater while keeping his breaking stuff down in the bottom of the zone, which has helped him remain effective despite league average velocity and spin rate.

Slider

Bieber's slider is his bread-and-butter, generating a wicked 40.6% o-swing rate and a 22.9% swinging strike rate, leading to a 5.1 pVAL at the midway point of the season. It sits 85 miles per hour and has considerable drop, making it look more like a hard curveball than anything.

A look at his chart shows how this pitch has been so effective. Bieber is excellent at burying it low in the strike zone, ensuring he gets a fair share of called strikes and whiffs on this nasty pitch. Pairing that with his high fastball has been a HUGE difference maker for Bieber this season, and is very likely the reason his strikeout numbers have rocketed up this year.

Curveball

Bieber's curveball actually is his best swing-and-miss pitch, with a 46.6% o-swing rate and a 27.2% swinging strike rate. However, an unlucky 40% HR/RB rate on his curveball has ballooned some of his numbers - a sign that this pitch should actually be producing better results than it actually is. Considering how dominant he has been with both his breaking pitches this year, the fact that he is actually getting unlucky is definitely worth noting.

Changeup

Bieber's biggest weapon against left-handers is his runny changeup. Coming in at 88 miles per hour, this pitch has almost the exact same movement pattern as his fastball, helping him generate a ton of swings and misses and weak contact as batters flail out in front. This pitch is his least utilized secondary, and doesn't generate the swing and miss stuff that his breaking pitches do, but a 64.3% groundball rate and a .214 BABIP prove that this pitch can be effectively utilized in conjunction with his fastball and his breaking stuff.

So, a quick recap: Bieber has a league average fastball that he has learned to effectively locate up in the zone, which helps him weaponize his two elite breaking balls. Those two pitches are getting buried down in the zone with regularity, and both are posting elite swinging strike numbers. Lastly, he can effectively sprinkle in his changeup - particularly against left-handers - which generates weak contact.

Verdict

Bieber's numbers on the year are fully supported by most standard peripherals. He has a 3.54 ERA with a 3.40 FIP, 3.09 xFIP and a 3.22 SIERA. His .286 BABIP and 75.9 strand rate are both league average, and he's actually been unlucky in the home run department, hence the low xFIP.

We are looking at a pitcher who has figured out the recipe for success with his arsenal, and who has mastered the ability to generate swings and misses with his pitch mix. His numbers are not only legit, but he is suffering from some bad luck on batted balls, and could be in line for an even better second half.

I think he will finish the 2019 season as a top-25 starting pitcher, and should be valued as such.

So Bieber owners, unless a fantasy owner is willing to heavily overpay for his services down the stretch, you are better off holding onto the budding superstar for the rest of the 2019 season.

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