Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 12: Buy or Sell?

June 18, 2018

Strikeout rate risers and fallers based on RotoBaller's premium tool. Matt Wilkes identifies some starting pitchers (SP) whose changes in K rate could make them worth adding or dropping in fantasy baseball leagues.

Due to a combination of harder throwers and hitters focusing on hitting for power, strikeouts are at an all-time high in baseball. For pitchers, this is an ideal trend. The ability to generate swings and misses is the most important skill to possess, as it's the only true way to control what happens after the pitch is thrown and eliminate the randomness that the ballpark, fielders, weather, and luck can play.

The stat is equally important for fantasy players. Not only are strikeouts a category in every league, but K-rates are often indicative of overall production. A pitcher with a 4.50 ERA with a 25.0 K% may see some positive regression in the future. On the other hand, a hurler with a 3.00 ERA and 16.0 K% may not see the ball continue to bounce their way.

In this column, we'll review two strikeout rate risers and fallers to determine if their performance will improve, hold steady, or worsen as the season moves along.

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Risers

Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs

2018 K-Rate: 23.4%; Last 30 Days: 28.8%

Quintana got off to a rough start in his first full season with the Cubs, with a 5.23 ERA (4.38 xFIP) through his first eight starts and 41 1/3 innings. It wasn't just a stroke of bad luck, either. After posting a career-best 26.2 K% in 2017, his strikeouts were down (20.2%) and his walks were way up (11.2%). While the latter hasn't improved in his last five starts (10.8 BB%), the strikeouts have returned in a big way.

That his strikeouts were down in the first place isn't terribly surprising. Most pitchers sporting an above-average K% don't have a below-average swinging-strike rate as Quintana did last year (8.4%). Through his first eight starts of the year, he held an 8.0 SwStr% and his strikeouts came down. Through his last five outings, however, he's raised that number to 9.8%, and he's getting hitters to chase outside the strike zone 31.7% of the time as opposed to a horrific 24.6% in his first eight starts. The lefty's off-speed pitches — the changeup and curveball — have been much more sharp in this stretch, particularly the latter.

In addition to raising his whiff rate on the pitch from 8.0% in his first eight starts to 14.8% in his last five, the slugging percentage against it has dropped from .419 to .179. The difference is fairly easy to explain: he's keeping the ball down in the zone more regularly:

Apart from the additional swings and misses, there are other encouraging results for Quintana, too. His average exit velocity is down to 86.4 mph in the last 30 days, and his hard-contact rate has fallen to 31.3%. Compared to the 90.6 mph and 40.3 Hard% in his first eight outings, that's no small feat.

However, there are still troubling trends keeping him from recapturing his 2017 form. Quintana's walk rate remains high, and he's actually hitting the strike zone even less over his last five games (40%) than he did in the first eight (44%). He's still having trouble throwing first pitch strikes (62.5%) compared to his career average (65.8%). The recent success is also buoyed by a .203 batting average on balls in play and 84% strand rate; neither figures to continue forever. While the increase in strikeouts are nice, Quintana still has work to do, which limits his fantasy upside at the moment.

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles

2018 K-Rate: 22.6%; Last 30 Days: 26.5%

Gausman has long been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball since his days as a top prospect in the game despite decent peripheral numbers. This season hasn't been much different for the 27-year-old. His walk rate is a career-low 5.6%, but his ERA still sits at 4.48. Gausman has mostly been all or nothing, with four starts of six or more runs allowed and 10 of three or fewer. However, his increasing strikeout rate continues to demonstrate his potential.

Over the last month, Gausman has begun to fan hitters the way he did in the second half of 2017. In the last 30 days, only Max Scherzer and Domingo German have a higher SwStr% than Gausman (15.9%), and he trails only four other pitchers in O-Swing% (38.5%). The main reason behind it all: the splitter. It's an elite pitch, registering a ridiculous 24.7 SwStr% and 54.0 O-Swing% on the season. It gets a groundball 69.7% of the time hitters put it in play, which isn't often; they're hitting just .155/.198/.291 against it this season. In the last month, the pitch has gotten even more filthy, as hitters are swinging through it 28.4% of the time it's thrown.

Many pitchers in baseball have started to throw their best pitch more often even if it isn't a fastball, and Gausman seems to be joining the "pitching backwards" movement recently. Take a look at the sharp increase in splitter usage and the drop in fastball percentage:

Gausman has used the splitter 35.0% of the time in his last five started compared to 21.9% in his first eight, which largely explains his recent uptick in strikeouts. His slider, which he incorporated in the middle of last season, is also getting more whiffs recently (15.3%), giving him two solid pitches to go to when he needs a punch-out.

Why, then, does he still have a 5.74 ERA in his last five starts despite this progress? Luck has certainly not been in his favor, allowing a .436 BABIP and 22.2% HR/FB despite maintaining a superb 23.2 Soft%. However, as good as his splitter is, his four-seam fastball is equally bad. It can hit 99 mph on the radar gun, but that hasn't prevented it from being obliterated. Batters are hitting .370/.424/.619 against it with 10 home runs and an average exit velocity of 91.9 mph. Only Stephen Strasburg and Matt Moore have given up harder contact against the four-seamer this year. Among all qualified pitchers, Gausman's fastball is dead last in pitch value (-15.9).

Gausman's recent performance is a microcosm of his career to this point. His splitter is one of the best swing-and-miss offerings in the game, but his horrendous fastball continues to hold him back. Still, the recent uptick in strikeouts and the sudden increase in splitter usage makes Gausman someone fantasy owners should continue monitoring.

Fallers

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

2018 K-Rate: 22.7%; Last 30 Days: 18.0%

Despite peripherals that again say he should be a worse pitcher than he is, Gonzalez is enjoying another solid season in the nation's capital with a 3.01 ERA. His walk rate still remains elevated (9.8%), but he's able to offset that with an above-average groundball rate (49.8%) and average strikeout rate. Lately, however, the strikeouts have been slipping, and the results have worsened as well. The southpaw owns a 4.06 ERA in his last five starts and has struck out only 23 batters in 31 innings after boasting a 25.2 K% in his first nine outings of the season.

Gonzalez's mediocre 10.3 SwStr% and 29.5 O-Swing%, along with his career marks, indicated that number would likely come down and it has. He's registered just an 8.9 SwStr% in the last 30 days while his O-Swing% has remained steady. Command is a large part of the problem for Gonzalez. He's throwing a first-pitch strike only 51.6% of the time, second-to-last in baseball in the last 30 days. The southpaw's curveball has also been far less effective, getting far less vertical movement as the season wears on:

The pitch is getting blasted for a .600 slugging percentage in the last month, and its whiff rate has dropped to a poor 6.5%. As a result, he's stopped using it as much, instead making his changeup his primary off-speed pitch. Normally his best pitch for whiffs, however, the change has a mediocre 12.5 SwStr% in that time. Free passes aren't the only thing hurting Gonzalez, as he's leaving entirely too many pitches over the middle of the plate, too.

Not all hope is lost, though. Gonzalez is one of the many pitches intentionally going up in the strike zone with his four-seam fastball, and it's paying dividends despite his below-average velocity (89.8 mph). Only four pitches in baseball who've thrown the pitch 250 times have a better whiff rate on the pitch than Gonzalez, who has a career-high 14.1 SwStr% when utilizing it.

Being a groundball pitcher (49.8%, 15th in baseball) helps Gonzalez limit damage from his walks, and his 16.7% HR/FB over his last five starts will stabilize. He's also not allowing much more hard contact than he did before (33.0%). But he's never been a high strikeout pitcher, and his early-season rate was bound to come down, especially when his curveball stopped dropping as much. When that's paired with erratic control, it's clear that Gonzalez isn't going to out-pitch his so-so peripherals forever.

Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels

2018 K-Rate: 22.8%; Last 30 Days: 17.1%

With injuries knocking Heaney off the radar over the last two seasons, he was largely not talked about coming into 2018. The southpaw seemingly hasn't skipped a beat, becoming a much-needed stabilizing force in the Angels' rotation behind Garrett Richards and Shohei Ohtani. With those two pitchers injured now, though, Heaney is being counted on even more. While he's still pitching well overall, his recent dip in strikeouts leaves some room for concern for fantasy players. Just how much concern should there be, though?

In the last five starts, Heaney has only 21 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. On the surface, that's not a promising trend. But Heaney hasn't seen a significant drop in SwStr%. In fact, he hasn't seen a drop at all. He's actually getting slightly more whiffs (11.8% vs. 11.4% in his first six starts) despite getting far fewer strikeouts. That's a healthy number, as the league average is currently 10.6%. Heaney's O-Swing% also remains unchanged and sits at 31.4% for the season, more than a percentage point above the league average (30.3%). So why on earth is he getting fewer strikeouts?

One potential explanation is he's throwing more strikes early in counts, and hitters are being more aggressive. Heaney's first-pitch strike rate sits at 70.9% in his last five starts. He's throwing just 3.7 pitches per at-bat compared to 3.8 earlier in the season. That's not a huge difference at all. However, hitters are putting the ball into play within the first three pitches of a plate appearance 12.3% of the time in his last five games, an increase from 9.7% in his first six outings.

All that said, the whiffs are still there, and the strikeouts figure to return for Heaney. His curveball is a strong swing-and-miss offering (17.9 SwStr%, 38.7 O-Swing%), and his changeup offers a solid third pitch (12.8 SwStr%, 44.1 O-Swing%). While his sinker is meh at best and his pitches don't have crazy movement, Heaney's deceptive delivery makes him tough to hit. Only 11 pitchers in the game hold the opposition to a lower average exit velocity (85.6 mph), and only nine others — including the likes of Jacob deGrom and Scherzer — have a higher infield-flyball percentage (16.4%). Heaney should continue to be a strong option across all fantasy formats.

All stats as of Sunday, June 17.

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