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Welcome back to the pitching strikeout rate risers and fallers article series! Each week we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. A pitcher can best control their fate by generating swings and misses, so this exercise holds particular importance for fantasy value. Understanding strikeout trends and the stats behind them can help you sort through all the noise and determine which pitchers are legit and which pitchers should be avoided.
The players in this article were chosen using RotoBaller’s K% Risers and Fallers premium Tool. This tool identifies players who are surging and falling in strikeout percentage over the last 30 days. The goal of this tool is to help you find pitchers who are showing improving or declining K%.
We've had enough baseball now to start identifying some relative longer-term trends, but there is still plenty of time to take advantage of those trends before your opponents do. Let's take a look at some risers and fallers to give you the inside edge!
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Strikeout Rate Risers
All stats current as of Sunday, June 2
Kenta Maeda - Los Angeles Dodgers
Season K%: 24.7%, Last 30 Days: 30.9%
Our first K% riser is one who I feel is often overlooked and undervalued in fantasy. Despite pitching in the ever-changing Dodgers' rotation/bullpen, Kenta Maeda always seems to find playing time. It is well-deserved, as he has gone 7-2 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings pitched this season. He has performed even better lately, winning four of his last five starts with a 30.9% strikeout rate. Let's take a deeper look into why Maeda is a valuable fantasy asset.
First, while Maeda has definitely pitched well over his last five starts, he has one blip that helped boost his K rate so much. Maeda took advantage of a favorable Padres matchup (they have the second-most strikeouts as a team in baseball) on May 15, racking up 12 K's in that outing. Eight of those came with his slider, which points to a bigger trend over the past month. Maeda has relied on his slider (39.9% usage, the sixth-most among starters this past month), more than his fastball (32.1%), and the results have obviously been good. In fact, Maeda has generated an impressive 23% swinging-strike rate with the pitch on the season, so it makes sense that he is relying on it more.
Maeda is an overall solid pitcher in addition to his strikeouts. He does a great job at limiting hard contact (84.3-MPH exit velocity, 23.2% hard-hit rate) and at avoiding baserunners (1.11 WHIP). With the way he has pitched this season, the Dodgers will find a way to ensure he gets his innings in. I consider him to be a worthy buy-high candidate, although he could potentially be bought at a slight discount given the worries surrounding the uncertainty of the Dodgers pitching staff.
Kyle Gibson - Minnesota Twins
Season K%: 24.1%, Last 30 Days: 27.3%
Remember how Kyle Gibson came out of nowhere at age 30 last season to be a solid fantasy starter? Well, it looks like it's happening again. Gibson currently owns a 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts in 62 1/3 IP to go with a 6-2 record. His last six starts have been even more impressive across the board and at just 47% ownership, is this a perfect buy-low opportunity?
Gibson's pitches aren't particularly impressive in terms of velocity or spin rates, but his mix of pitches are. Gibson has thrown all of his pitches (sinker, slider, four-seamer, changeup, curveball) at least 10% over the past month, which has kept hitters guessing. However, his slider and changeup have been the best in terms of missing bats (27.1% and 23.4% swinging-strike rates, respectively), and he knows it. 24 of Gibson's 36 strikeouts in May came from those pitches, meaning that he has gone to them more in strikeout situations.
Gibson is a worthy back-end or middle-of-rotation starter that has been overlooked this season. He pitches aren't flashy and his game is straightforward. However, his 3.80 SIERA backs up his ERA, and the fact that he plays on a pretty good Twins team means that he should continue to have chances to pick up wins. He should certainly be owned in more than 47% of leagues, so go and scoop him up if he is on your waiver wire.
Strikeout Rate Fallers
All stats current as of Sunday, June 2
Jose Quintana - Chicago Cubs
Season K%: 21.9%, Last 30 Days: 16.9%
I wrote about Jose Quintana in this column a couple of weeks ago when his K rate over the past 30 days was 16.9%. Well, things haven't improved, as he still sits atop the K% Fallers chart with a 16.9% K rate. Last time I said that Quintana has never been much of a strikeout pitcher but has pitched well, so everything was fine. Do I still feel that way?
To cut to the chase, I unfortunately do not. Quintana has been a strong fantasy asset despite his lack of strikeout potential in the past because of his ability to keep his WHIP and ERA down. That has not really been the case in the past month. Quintana owns a 4.09 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over his last six starts. These are ok numbers, but not the kind you would like to see from a starter who won't really help you in the strikeout department.
What is more unsettling is the sheer lack of strikeouts from Quintana. He has had more than four strikeouts in just two of his last six games with a mere 8% swinging-strike rate. Overall, Quintana is a mediocre fantasy starter that doesn't offer a ton of upside. He won't kill fantasy owners but won't significantly help them either.
Julio Teheran - Atlanta Braves
Season K%: 22.3%, Last 30 Days: 16.7%
Our second faller has been a fantasy disappointment for several seasons but seems to be making up for it in 2019. Julio Teheran has had a great start to the season, going 3-4 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 22.3% K rate. However, Teheran's K rate has dropped to a mediocre 16.7% in the last 30 days. Should fantasy owners be worried?
Despite his success, Teheran has presented conflicting signals throughout the course of the season, and the last 30 days have been no exception. Teheran has a fantastic 0.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last six starts. However, he has 18 walks in that time and a bloated 5.87 SIERA. Teheran does not have overpowering stuff; his fastball sits at just 89.9 MPH and he relies on it heavily (43% usage). His slider, his main secondary pitch, has generated a 19.1% swinging-strike rate, but his others don't have a swinging-strike rate above 13.9%.
Teheran doesn't have overpowering stuff but has managed to be successful despite having a lack of command (11.7% walk rate). His SIERA and BABIP (.241 vs .267 career) suggest that he has been getting lucky, and I would tend to agree. Teheran is a sell-high candidate, as it seems like only a matter of time before he implodes.
K-Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool
Identifying top strikeout rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium K-Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. This tool will soon be active once we have a large enough sample size in the season to be considered reliable.
This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!
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