X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Stop That Hype Train! - Terrelle Pryor

Chris Moore explains why Washington Redskins wide receiver Terrelle Pryor is overhyped and could be an ADP bust at WR for 2017 fantasy football drafts.

Last year, in his first full season playing wide receiver, Terrelle Pryor finished 18th overall at the position. Catching 77 balls on a ridiculous 140 targets, Pryor finished with over 1,000 yards playing for a Cleveland Browns team that ranked 28th in the NFL in passing, with a total net of just 3,264 yards through the air.

The pupu platter of Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown, Cody Kessler, and Kevin Hogan conspired to keep Pryor’s catch rate at a pedestrian 55%, with an estimated 25% of the balls thrown his way deemed uncatchable. Fast forward to 2017 and Pryor has signed on to be the presumptive WR1 for the juggernaut that is the Washington Redskins passing offense. Pro bowl signal caller Kirk Cousins led his unit to a second best finish among all NFL teams in net air yards at 4,758, trailing only Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.

With such a pronounced difference in quality of supporting cast, it’s no wonder Terrelle Pryor has earned a long look as one of 2017’s biggest breakout candidates at WR. Has it gotten out of control, though? With Pryor going as high as the second round in some fantasy drafts, it may be time to step back and take a look at Pryor's value through a more objective lens.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Terrelle Pryor - Expectations Out of Hand?

It’s easy enough to see where this hype machine originated, as fantasy owners have spent much of the summer hopping from forum to forum planting the seed, painting a vivid picture of what a Pryor breakout would look like. Imagine a 1,400 yard season as a dynamic playmaker in a prolific air attack for an up and coming QB on a team that racked up almost over 90 more yards per game compared to the unit Pryor left during the offseason.

As is so often the case in fantasy football, the echo chamber got control of a narrative, and rode it full steam ahead, turning justified June optimism into understandable August caution. Terrelle Pryor wasn’t even a consensus top 20 selection at the WR position only a few short weeks ago, but the fantasy community has mobilized, the mock drafts have spoken, and now the sight of Terrelle Pryor slipping as far as the fourth round has become a thing of the not so distant past. Pryor’s ADP is now firmly in the third round. Notable experts are more and more commonly ranking him inside their personal top 30s, and he’s turning into a player who is ranked more for what he *could* do as opposed to what he *should* do.

This piece is being penned with some degree of caution. The upside is undeniable. The range of outcomes is wide. The possibility that Terrelle Pryor authors the dream season that some envision for him is probably just as good as it was a month ago. The problem seems to be that our collective love affair with Pryor has gone too far. Before you go spending your third round pick on a still relatively unproven commodity, it would be foolish not to first consider the risks involved.

Volume: Pryor’s 140 targets from 2016 are probably not repeatable. Despite the fact that Jordan Reed missed 4 games a season ago, the target distribution for Kirk Cousins’ favorite weapons went as follows: Pierre Garcon 114, DeSean Jackson 100, Jamison Crowder 99, Jordan Reed 89. Captain Kirk likes to spread the wealth, and he’ll do so again in 2017. Granted the two most heavily targeted WRs from 2016 have left the equation, but a healthy Reed, a healthy Doctson, and a steadily improving Crowder will stake their claim to a very healthy share of Cousins’ attempts. Furthermore, the Redskins’ running game from a year ago finished just 21st in the league. It stands to reason that Head Coach Jay Gruden will try to improve that balance, so 600+ attempts for Cousins aren’t necessarily a foregone conclusion either. The quality of Pryor’s offerings from Cousins as compared to the four-headed Griffin-McCown-Kessler-Hogan monster will help, but will this be enough to more than offset a dramatic reduction in overall targets? That remains to be seen.

Chemistry: The Redskins’ preseason has been one to forget. The Cousins to Pryor connection simply has not yet gotten off the ground. Will the early part of the season see Cousins lean more on Crowder and Reed than he does on his shiny new toy receiver? We seem content enough to anoint Terrelle Pryor as the undisputed #1 WR in Washington, but make no mistake, this regime is very high on Crowder, and the fantasy community has rightly pegged him as a dark-horse candidate for a 100 catch season. There remains some non-trivial possibility that it’s Crowder, not Pryor, who finishes the year as the Redskins best fantasy WR, and this is especially true in PPR formats. Do you want to use your early third round pick on Pryor or your early seventh round selection on Crowder. Hey- it’s your team, but I think the value is better with Crowder.

Growth: There’s no doubting Terrelle Pryor’s athleticism. He’s 6’4”, 230 lbs., and runs a 4.38 40 yard dash. It’s fair to wonder if the splash he made in 2016 was a product of a great athlete being in the right place at the right time. Does he have the mental game to add that measure of polish and professionalism necessary to really take that next step and make a leap in year two? While we should be careful not to ignore the possibility, it remains to be seen if this was a player who is truly in the process of mastering his craft, or whether he was able to coast on physical measurables and volume in a lost season for a dismal franchise.

In summary, this article is itself a risk. There’s a chance that Pryor will parlay his freakish athleticism, pro-bowl QB, and silver-platter opportunity into a fantasy season for the ages. He has that kind of upside. But bear in mind that this is precisely why his third round ADP exists in the first place. It seems a bit too heavy on the ceiling and a bit too light on the floor. In the fantasy sports world, some of our rankings are “aspirational,” where we rank a guy expecting him to do something we’ve never seen before. Even if Pryor’s rank is a fair one in the final analysis, it is certainly aspirational, and his rank is more about hype at this point than any other player going in the first three rounds. You’re swinging for the fences if you draft Pryor in round three because the home run potential is there. Just don’t be too surprised if you strike out.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Draft Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF