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Michael Cecchini examines the new Steamer projections to find fantasy value and surprises at each position for fantasy baseball in 2025.
Welcome back to The Lookahead; this week, we take an early look at the first projections of 2025.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year… No, this isn’t yet another column decrying the perpetually accelerating Christmas creep phenomenon.
Instead, we fantasy baseball fanatics have two events to celebrate. First, drafts for 2025 are open over at the NFBC. Second, Steamer just released their projections for 2025 on FanGraphs. MLB calls Steamer “one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.” (Steamer | Glossary | MLB.com). Even if you don’t use projections when drafting, there’s no denying they perform well in the aggregate.
We don’t need projections to tell us Aaron Judge will be great, but they can help us by confirming or highlighting the performance of lesser-regarded players. Let’s take a deeper look at the bigger “Steamer surprises” for 2025.
Catcher
Steamer says: 12 HR, 51 runs, 52 RBI, 4 SB, .249 (507 PA)
Value: C 17
Early ADP: 436 (C 35)
You’d be forgiven if you forgot about Rodriguez, a Pirates catching prospect who FanGraphs ranked second in Pittsburgh’s system and eleventh overall in the 2023 class. He debuted that season, but Tommy John surgery following a winter ball injury caused him to miss nearly all of 2024.
Endy is healthy now and has added muscle during his rehab. He’s a switch hitter who fields well and has always made good contact (90% z-con in his 2023 MLB stint). He should be a productive hitter, but the question will be playing time.
The Pirates GM mentioned recently that Joey Bart showed enough to get ample run at catcher, but also said Endy will be in the mix. They also need help at first base, a position Rodriguez played intermittently coming up through the minors, and especially recently.
Steamer assumes Rodriguez will play a fair amount by giving him 507 plate appearances, seventh among catchers in their projections. That may be a bit aspirational, but there’s a path to 400 PAs here.
Remember, he was their “catcher of the future” two short years ago and was treated as such when they brought him up in 2023. (Also, are we sure Joey Bart is just a stud now?). His top-line numbers were not great in that MLB sample, but under the hood, a 9% swinging strike rate and 36% hard hit are more encouraging.
Verdict: With plus hit and fielding grades and the ability to bat from either side and play multiple positions, Endy has a chance to play more than the typical catcher. He should hit for a decent average, and the added bulk could mean we see more power upside. Yet he’s going off the board 35th at the position. We like this pick as a late second catcher or backup in two-catcher draft and hold leagues.
First Base
Steamer says: 25 HR, 63 runs, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .231 (542 PA)
Value: 1B 27
Early ADP: 327 (1B 31)
Due to geographical factors, I get to watch a lot of A’s games (or did, anyway—in 2025, John Fisher’s team has neither an MLB park nor a local TV deal). So, for me, this projection is no surprise. Soderstrom is another well-regarded prospect from the 2023 class (A’s No. 1, 24th overall) with legit 70-grade power and a hit tool solid enough to get to it in games.
With his disastrous 34 wRC+ rookie season behind him, in 2024, Sodey—as the team (and Dallas Braden) call him—ripped 10 homers in just 33 Triple-A games before being elevated and placed smack dab in the 4/5 spots in the majors. He knocked nine homers in 61 games while improving his contact (84.5% z-con from 81%) and especially strikeout rate (24% from 31%):
The contact quality was elite, too: 14.6% barrel and 49% hard hit, both of which would’ve ranked top 20 in MLB among qualified hitters.
Soderstrom didn’t play against every lefty, but he actually maintained the same walk rate (9%), a lower strikeout rate (18%), and a better wRC+ (125) against southpaws in limited chances.
Verdict: If he gets a full-time run, we could see 30-plus homers from Sodey, especially given what should be a decent park upgrade. Also, in the minors, we saw 20%+ line drive rates; if he can turn some of his 50% ground balls in MLB into line drives, maybe we can get closer to a .240 average, too.
Second Base
Steamer says: 6 HR, 42 runs, 41 RBI, 14 SB, .275 (422 PA)
Value: 2B 32
Early ADP: 353 (2B 29)
Despite displaying a strong hit tool at every level, MLB teams treated Lopez like a virus they couldn’t wait to shake. He was traded from the Blue Jays to the Giants, who designated him for assignment before the penurious Marlins swooped in to claim him. After a short stint at Triple-A, Lopez came up in mid-April, and over 117 games, he hit .270 with six homers and 20 stolen bases.
Steamer thinks he can do even better, and it’s easy to see why: Lopez posted a .277 xBA and 91% zone contact. He’s also really fast, turning 86th-percentile sprint speed into 20 stolen bases in 24 attempts. To top it off, his fielding range was elite (98th percentile), and his 11 outs above average were second in the position, behind only Andres Gimenez.
Verdict: This all looks repeatable. Lopez’s ground ball lean (54%) paired with the speed buoys the batting average. There is no imminent threat in Miami to bother Lopez for playing time. Steamer is projecting just 105 games played here; extrapolate a little, and the numbers really pop this late in drafts. The power is limited, but a .275 average with 20+ steals from a cheap middle infielder? Sign me up.
Third Base
Steamer says: 29 HR, 77 runs, 90 RBI, 5 SB, .262 (643 PA)
Value: 3B 6
Early ADP: 108 (3B 8)
Obviously, with Caminero, we aren’t surprised by a good projection but rather by how good it is. Recall this was a consensus top-2 prospect in 2024 (Baseball America and FanGraphs No. 1). Based on hype alone, one could argue Caminero should go even higher in drafts; now we have projections backing up the optimism.
https://x.com/baseballamerica/status/1831136345772695781?s=46&t=SSwkggOgzQqQr05k34eyUA
Despite his high-end prospect pedigree, Junior didn’t play quite at a major level in 2024. He was solid across the board (105 wRC+) but not awesome: 6 HR, .248 BA, .724 OPS in 177 PA. That’s more like a 25-homer pace, although the quality of contact implies more thunder brewing in his bat (12% barrel, 46% HH, 116 max EV).
Caminero avoided massive strikeouts (21%), but what about that 14% swinging strike rate, which implies closer to 27-28% strikeouts?
Well, it turns out Caminero knows when to swing to maximize damage: his 22.7 score in Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric (evaluating swing decisions) ranked tenth in MLB between Kyle Tucker and Juan Soto. That combination of power and plate control is why Junior sat at the head of his prospect class.
Verdict: Right now, Caminero is being drafted in a mini-tier with Mark Vientos, below the elites at third base (Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley) and ahead of the Burgers and Chapmans of the world. That makes him an easy pick in our view: Caminero’s profile looks a lot like Riley’s but at a discount of four or five rounds.
Shortstop
Steamer says: 22 HR, 79 runs, 72 RBI, 22 SB, .231 (664 PA)
Value: SS 20
Early ADP: 268 (SS 23)
Fitzgerald burst onto the scene for the Giants in July at the age of 26 and did it in high style, hitting .359 with 11 homers in just 71 plate appearances over a five-week period (1.416 OPS). That didn’t last, of course: Fitzy hit .253 with just three homers in the season’s final six weeks—with a 32% strikeout rate.
Fitzgerald’s breakout does have a bit of Zach Gelof to it. His contact rates (80% zone, 70% overall) are below average, and he was never labeled a can’t-miss prospect. But those contact rates are not quite Gelofian bad. And Fitzgerald is much faster, with literally 100th percentile sprint speed—when his hot bat slowed last season, he still provided 11 steals over the final 44 games.
That’s a 40-steal pace. Fitzgerald also pulled the ball in the air at an elite rate (16% pulled flies/BBE). While not a top-100 prospect, he has two 20/20 seasons in the minors to his name.
https://x.com/ericcross04/status/1842224439003316309?s=46&t=SSwkggOgzQqQr05k34eyUA
Verdict: Steamer says Fitzgerald will more than return value. If he meets this projection, he’s a $7.7 player, the 20th-best shortstop, and he’s being drafted 23rd at the position. The Giants are shopping for a shortstop but have also said they won’t increase payroll drastically.
This tells me Fitzgerald will play a lot of second base and probably some outfield; that added eligibility is more valuable than the risk he’s platooned at times. At this ADP, he makes for a solid middle infield option with intriguing upside.
Outfield
Steamer says: 22 HR, 64 runs, 71 RBI, 10 SB, .255 (532 PA)
Value: OF 48
Early ADP: 274 (OF 48)
Sanchez has long been a data darling, but he put it all together on the field in 2024, going 18/16 with some top-of-the-scale batted ball quality: 12% barrel rate and 51% hard hit (95th percentile).
Despite the underlying studliness, Sanchez’s game power has been constrained by too many ground balls (50%) and not enough flies (22%). He has maintained a 24%+ line drive rate the past two years, which implies we could see improvement on the .250ish averages he’s sported lately (.267 xBA last season).
The other limitation for Sanchez is playing time versus southpaws. He didn’t start every game against them in 2024, though those opportunities ticked up a bit in September. That may have been due to roster constraints, however, as Sanchez posted just a 35 wRC+ versus lefties (42 wRC+ career).
Verdict: Yes, Sanchez is a strong side platoon player, which Steamer recognizes. But the projections also bake in a step forward for the 27-year-old. His projected value on the auction calculator comes out to OF 48. In fact he’s calculated to be worth as much as Heliot Ramos, a player I prefer but who is being drafted five rounds earlier.
Jesus’ ADP reflects the platoon risk, too: Brendan Donovan, Evan Carter, and Wilyer Abreu are similarly situated outfielders. I prefer Lars Nootbaar, who’s going in that range, too, but Sanchez has more upside than most of those players.
Starting Pitcher
Steamer says: 11-10 W-L, 187 SO, 3.76 ERA (3.76 FIP), 1.17 WHIP (176.1 IP)
Value: SP 25
Early ADP: 188 (SP 61)
Woodruff’s Steamer projections make him the 25th most valuable starting pitcher by their numbers. Now, of course, if he’s healthy—and if he’s pitching like peak Woodruff—that projection is not only reasonable, but it’s far too modest. Remember, Woodruff pitched to a 2.70 ERA, .98 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9 from 2021-23.
The problem is we don’t know exactly how healthy Woodruff is, as he’s returning from surgery to repair the anterior capsule of his throwing shoulder. He had thrown at least one bullpen as of late August 2024 but afterward said he “still had a long way to go” to be ready to make an MLB start. Yet Steamer projects 29 starts and 176.1 IP, which seems highly optimistic.
The other piece to the puzzle is skill-related. As late as he’s going in drafts, we can live with under 150 innings if Woodruff is his old ace-level self.
However, we have no velocity readings yet for this version of Woodruff, nor is there a robust historical roadmap for capsule returnees. I found a National Institute of Health meta-study from 2013 that looked at the rate of return and performance levels for college or pro pitchers returning from all shoulder surgeries.
The review found that 68% of pitchers returned and that performance was better post-surgery than it had been leading up to injury, but in general, “did not improve to pre-injury levels.” (Based on ERA, WHIP, and K/9).
Furthermore, while shoulder surgery returnees increased innings in each of three successive seasons post-op, “pitchers still pitched significantly fewer innings” compared to healthy, pre-injury levels. One of the studies found that velocity decreased by up to four MPH.
On the other side, there is a 2023 study specifically regarding shoulder capsules that concluded that 10 of 11 players returned to play at a high level, but that was based on their subjective reporting and did not compare statistical performance before and after.
Anecdotally, Johan Santana, Chris Young, and Dallas Braden are a few examples of pitchers who were never the same after shoulder capsule repairs.
Verdict: Are both prongs of this Steamer valuation—a return to very good skills and the durability to go 6+ innings per start—achievable? In theory, yes. One could argue medical procedures are more efficacious now, the Steamer numbers are debiting Woodruff somewhat, and the Brewers, who know the situation best, decided to pay him through 2026.
But there is clearly a lot of risk and uncertainty here. That is somewhat reflected in the price (206 ADP), but the discount may not be steep enough for the risks. We might take the gamble once if playing in multiple leagues. Might.
Relief Pitcher
Steamer says: 4-3 W-L, 25 Saves, 87 SO, 3.12 ERA (3.22 FIP), 1.29 WHIP (70 IP)
Value: RP 13
Early ADP: 252 (RP 28)
If you’ve ever seen J Mart pitch, you know that he’s absolutely electric. He throws both a four-seam and sinker, which each sit around 100 MPH, and pairs them with one of the best splitters in the game (27% SwStr) and a slider that isn’t too shabby either (17% SwStr).
It’s not just the velocity or whiffs with Martinez. He is one of the best pitchers in MLB at suppressing hard contact, with a 60% ground ball rate (97th percentile) and just 2.8% barrels allowed (99th). He’s just dominant.
As for the downside, like many freaky stuff relievers, Martinez walks too many hitters (11.7%)—the resulting 18% K-BB% ranked 118th among relievers last year. He’s also not the best reliever in his own bullpen. A.J. Puk posted an outrageous 30% K-BB rate, walking just 5% of opponents. There’s some probability we will see the Diamondbacks mix and match closer duties.
Verdict: I really like Martinez. One answer to the Puk issue is matchups and past practices: as a righty, J Mart received the lion’s share of the save opportunities in 2024. Puk was used in a fireman role that only saw him garner two saves with Arizona to J Mart’s eight.
We only have two months of usage to go on, however, so I’d probably assume 20 rather than 25 saves. Even then, J Mart looks like a major value as a second or third closer.
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