February 18, 2023

Eric Samulski reviews the Statcast leaderboard to identify top hitters for expected batting average (xBA) that could be draft sleepers for 2023 fantasy baseball.

While the fantasy baseball prep work has been ongoing for months for some, many fantasy managers are turning their attention over in more earnest as the calendar flips to February and the NFL season winds down.

While there will be many prep strategy articles, the most basic starting place is to familiarize yourself with the player pool and the current ADP and start putting together projections.

Even if you download built-in projections like ATC, which you can find on RotoBaller, it's important to see if those numbers align with your views on the players. In order to do that, you need to have your own thoughts on who's in for a bounceback or letdown season, and then manually tweak the projections if need be.

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Statcast Review Series

One of the best ways to get a feel for player performance is to use Statcast metrics. While they're not perfect, Statcast metrics enable us to look beyond just what the result on the field was and start to see the quality of contact or pitches and get a sense of who was performing at a consistently high level, whether the results were there or not.

In this offseason series, I'll dig into a few of the Statcast leaderboards to see which players should be worthy of our attention, even if the season-long numbers may not jump out. My goal is not just to give you the Statcast numbers but explain how I believe those numbers impact the projections I have for the given player heading into 2023.

We'll start by looking at xBA or Expected Batting Average, which looks "looking at the exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball" to assign a "Hit Probability based on the outcomes of comparable historic balls in play." Thus, xBA would suggest what the player's quality of contact would have historically led to. Therefore, while we can't say, "Oh, he should have hit .280 he just got unlucky," we can say "The quality of contact he made was on par with a .280 hitter" and that can still be useful if a player performed well below that.

xBA Leaderboard

Jose Abreu - 1B, Houston Astros

2022 Stats: .304/.378/.446, 15 HRs, 85 Runs, and 75 RBI in 679 plate appearances

Eric's 2023 Projection: .281, 22 HR, 81 Runs, 84 RBI

If you listen to a lot of preseason podcasts, you'll know that a lot of people are off of Jose Abreu. In part, because he's 36 years old and there's a chance his skills are eroding, and also because of his struggles against the fastball. However, I think these concerns are a bit overblown.

Abreu hit .297 against fastballs last year with an xBA of .311 and a 20.2% whiff rate. He hit .279 against fastballs in 2021 with a .338 xBA and 24.2% whiff rate, so in many ways, he was just as good, if not better, against the fastball in 2022. What happened is that he hit fewer home runs. So, while Abreu may not punish fastballs the way he did in 2018 and 2019, we're not really expecting him to if all we're doing is marking him down for 22 home runs. That number of long balls, plus his batting average consistency, an average of 699 plate appearances over the last two seasons, and moving to Houston have me confused as to why Abreu is being drafted just inside the top 100 and right around the same place as Vinne Pasquantino.

His being on the xBA leaderboard shouldn't be a surprise since Abreu actually hit .304. A big part of that was him cutting his strikeout rate from 21.7% to 16.2%. Abreu became slightly more selective, cutting his O-Swing% and overall swing rate while increasing both his zone contact and O-Contact%. While I think a .290 average is more attainable, these are legitimate changes to his approach, and I think some projections having him at .260 are missing that.

I also wanted to highlight him because I think we're discounting his power profile. For starters, despite hitting 15 home runs last season, Statcast gives him 22 home runs in Houston, which is his new home park. Secondly, Abreu's contact profile was fairly similar to his 30-home run season in 2021. His barrel rate dropped just 0.7% in 2022, but his HardHit% was up and was actually in the top 3% of the league.

He also had a 38% pull rate, which is only slightly down from the 40.4% in 2021. Since he's hovered around 40% for most of his career, I think we can see a little increase again back towards that with the Crawford boxes in Houston calling his name. Abreu also saw his flyball rate drop from 34.9% to 31.7% but much of that went to an increased line drive rate which is not as "sticky" year over year.

Given that he is still making hard contact and has improved his patience at the plate, I think projections are missing on his batting average, and I think we could see mid-20s home run power in a much better park for power. Also, why are we projecting him for fewer runs now that he's slated to hit in the middle in a better lineup? I just don't understand these projections.

ADP: 88th overall

Eric's Ranking: 59th overall (this doesn't mean I'm drafting him 54th if I can get him rounds later)

Alec Bohm - 3B, Philadelphia Phillies

2022 Stats: .280/.315/.398, 13 HRs, 79 Runs, 72 RBI, and two SBs in 631 plate appearances

Eric's 2023 Projection: .275, 15 HRs, 73 Runs, 71 RBI, four SBs

Heading into last season, I wrote a deep dive on the changes Alec Bohm was making to his swing. That article got me an FSWA nomination for Best Fantasy Baseball Article and also a soft spot in my heart for Bohm. However, the changes also worked. Bohm hit .280 last year, cutting his strikeout rate by almost 10% and increasing his flyball rate by almost 8%. He also pulled the ball more and was a little bit more aggressive, which saw his contact rate go up over 5%.

If we remember that he's 26 years old and is a former top prospect with tons of pedigree, then we should begin to feel a bit more confident that these changes are a sign of actual growth for Bohm.

Yes, his barrel rate wasn't great, and his max exit velocities will never jump off of the page, but he had 71st-percentile max EV and 67th-percentile HardHit%, so he isn't below average in terms of pop. He also had a top 2% xBA, which jives with the high batting average player he was in the minor leagues.

While Bohm did struggle in September and October, this was also the first season he had more than 480 at-bats, so I think it was more a case of him simply fading down the stretch than a flaw in his skills. I think another season that pushes a .280 batting average with 15+ home runs in a deadly lineup is achievable, which makes Bohm a good fantasy bargain as a corner infield target who could help provide a batting average cushion with chip-in counting stats.

ADP: 180th overall

Eric's Ranking: 109th overall

Bryan De La Cruz - OF, Miami Marlins

2022 Stats: .252/.294/.432, 13 HRs, 38 Runs, 43 RBI, and four SBs in 355 plate appearances

Eric's 2023 Projection: .271, 15 HRs, 50 Runs, 52 RBI, six SBs

Sometimes the boring picks at the end of drafts can be the most beneficial ones. I'm not sure anybody is going to look at your selection of De La Cruz and be wowed, but that's OK.

In his first year as a semi-regular starter, De La Cruz finished with an 84th-percentile barrel rate, 82nd-percentile exit velocity, 94th-percentile xSLG, and 96th-percentile xBA. His zone contact rate is essentially the same as Xander Bogaerts and J.T. Realmuto, two players known for high batting averages, and while he swings out of the zone around 34% of the time, that's the same rate as strong batting average hitters like Cedric Mullins and Jeff McNeil.

He had a rough strikeout stretch in the middle of the summer but adjusted to MLB pitching, which is what you want to see, and caught fire down the stretch, hitting .310 in the second half with a .535 SLG and seven home runs.

You can see clear improvements in both the xSLG and HardHit% as the season went on.

De La Cruz didn't handle lefties well, hitting just .184/.253/.253 off of them in 2022 with two home runs and a 32.3% strikeout rate, which is a bit surprising for a right-handed hitter. However, he did hit .347 off of lefties in 50 at-bats in 2021, so perhaps he will settle somewhere in between in 2023. Regardless, he should push 500 at-bats for the Marlins this season, and given his barrel rates and second-half improvements, I think the projections that have him down around a .250 batting average are selling him short.

After writing this, the Marlins said that Jesus Sanchez is currently slated to start in the outfield, which means De La Cruz will need to wrestle the job away from him. This could be more of a timeshare than people want to believe.

ADP: 233rd overall

Eric's Ranking: 239th overall

Oscar Gonzalez - OF, Cleveland Indians

2022 Stats: .296/.327/.461, 11 HRs, 39 Runs, 43 RBI, and one SB in 382 plate appearances

Eric's 2023 Projection: .273, 18 HRs, 62 Runs, 70 RBI, two SBs

It's not a surprise to see Oscar Gonzalez on a batting average leaderboard since he was a career .280 hitter in the minor leagues. He is certainly a bit of a free-swinger, only once posting a walk rate above 6% in the minors; however, he also makes a bit bit of contact, striking out 23% of the time during his minor league career.

While his strikeout rate spiked a bit as he reached the high minors, he has proven able to adjust, striking out 24.9% of the time in his first taste of Triple-A but then just 14.3% in his time there in 2022. This is relevant because he showed the same ability in the big leagues. He posted essentially a 23% strikeout rate in July and August but then lowered that to a 15.9% rate in September and October.

Given all of that, I find it hard to believe Gonzalez posts a strikeout rate much above 20% and his 88th-percentile sprint speed will help him keep a safe batting average floor because he hits the ball on the ground or on a line around 70% of the time. This generally helps players hold a higher BABIP than you might normally expect to see.

However, another thing I liked to see from Gonzalez was an increase in his flyball rate over the course of the season. After registering a 24% fly ball rate and 13% infield fly ball rate in 32 first-half games, he finished with a 30.6% flyball rate and a 6.8% infield flyball rate in the second half. That's tied to a slight launch angle adjustment, which helped cut down the infield pop-ups and raise his HR/FB% almost double, which is why he hit nine second-half home runs. More specifically, he hit six home runs in the final 34 games of the season.

Thus, while I don't see him hitting 20+ home runs, I think he can push 18 as a full-time player in Cleveland with a relatively safe batting average floor. However, I'm a little lower on him than where he's going now.

ADP: 184th overall

Eric's Ranking: 191st overall

BA Under-Performers Leaderboard

This leaderboard shows us which players had an xBA much higher than their actual batting average. Meaning, which players "should" have produced a much better average and might have sneaky value. 

Corey Seager - SS, Texas Rangers

2022 Stats: .245/.317/.455, 33 HRs, 91 Runs, 83 RBI, and three SBs in 663 plate appearances

Eric's 2023 Projection: .278, 28 HRs, 84 Runs, 82 RBI, two SBs

Corey Seager was a huge batting average under-performer last year and it sapped a lot of his fantasy value; however, much of it looks like a fluke. Last year, Seager posted a .242 BABIP despite rocking a career .317 rate.

Not much else really changed in his profile to suggest the BABIP regression was earned.

He had a slightly higher FB% than in 2021 but almost identical to his rates in 2019 and 2020. He barreled the ball slightly less than in 2021 but still better than every season prior to 2020. He also pulled the ball 5% more than in 2021 but that was just 1.5% more than in 2020, and his O-Swing was 3% higher than in 2021. Those are changes to take note of but nothing that would suggest hitting .245.

The other major change was moving to Globe Life Field from Dodger Stadium. In 2022, Dodger Stadium was the eighth-ranked park when it comes to producing hits while Globe Life Field ranked 18th. So while Dodger Stadium is much better for home runs and a better hitter's park overall, when it comes to not accruing base hits, it's not so much better that we should expect this kind of decline.

One thing to consider is that Seager continued to pull the ball more as the season went on and still hit the ball on the ground close to 50%. That's relevant since Seager was shifted against the 10th-most of any hitter in baseball.

Without the shift, it would be safe to assume a portion of those pulled groundballs start to find their way to the outfield. That plus natural regression to the mean makes it seem far more likely Seager reverts back to being around a .270-.280 hitter.

ADP: 58th overall

Eric's Ranking: 57th overall

Rowdy Tellez - 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

2022 Stats: .219/.306/.461, 35 HRs, 67 Runs, 89 RBI, and two SBs in 599 plate appearances

Eric's 2023 Projection: .235, 29 HRs, 71 Runs, 82 RBI, two SBs

Like Seager, Rowdy Tellez is another hitter who seemed to get a little unlucky. He posted a .215 BABIP despite having a .275 mark in each of the prior two seasons. What also strikes me as unlucky about that is that Tellez hit the ball harder than the year before (1.3% barrel increase) and hit the ball in the air more (7.3%) increase but had fewer infield flyballs, which suggests he wasn't just popping up.

He did raise his groundball rate, but I'm not so sure the shift is a cause for Rowdy's poor average. He was shifted against 78.4% of the time last year (75th in baseball) but had a .318 wOBA against the shift and .338 wOBA without the shift. Even though there is a difference there, it's not something astronomical.

A bigger culprit is likely his performance against offspeed pitches. In 2021, he hit .254 against offspeed pitches even though he whiffed 27.9% of the time. Meanwhile, in 2022, he hit .164 on offspeed pitches with a 22.7% whiff rate. What also stands out is that the PutAway% against offspeed pitches jumped almost 7%, which tells me that even though he wasn't swinging and missing at offspeed pitches more overall, pitchers were attacking him with the offspeed when they were ahead, leading to the poor performance.

Yet, since his O-Swing% actually improved, it seems like his regression came on breaking balls in the zone. If you look at the images below, you can see the Whiff% for Tellez in 2022 on curveballs (top) and changeups (below) in two-strike counts.

You can see that Tellez has an over 50% whiff rate in multiple areas within the strike zone on both the changeup and curve. That was not the case in 2021 or 2020. Since the highest league average Whiff% within the zone on two strikes on either of those pitches is 24%, it means that Tellez was twice as bad as the league average on curves and change-ups in the zone in multiple areas. That's a problem for his batting average.

Since Tellez didn't have these issues prior, it's hard to say whether or not that regression sticks, but I feel safe in assuming that we won't see Rowdy get to his .245 projected average. The .219 rate he put up last year still feels like a rare low point, but I think we might see something closer to .235 in 2023. Still, even with that lower average factored in, he appears to be WAY under-drafted right now.

ADP: 160th overall

Eric's Ranking: 101st overall

Keibert Ruiz - C, Washington Nationals

2022 Stats: .251/.313/.360, seven HRs, 33 Runs, 36 RBI, and six SBs in 433 plate appearances

Eric's 2023 Projection: .271, 10 HRs, 52 Runs, 56 RBI, five SBs

Keibert Ruiz was once a big-time prospect for the Los Angeles Dodgers, so when he failed to meet expectations in his first major league season, it became easy for people to say, "If the Dodgers got rid of him, there must be an issue." However, I think that's an oversimplification.

Ruiz was a career .301 hitter in the minor leagues. He has an elite contact profile with just a 10.6% career minor league strikeout rate and just an 11.5% strikeout rate so far in the majors.

However, Ruiz doesn't make loud contact. He had just a 3.7% barrel rate and 11th-percentile HardHit%. He pulls the ball 50% of the time, which we like to see, and has a 40% groundball rate, which isn't overly concerning. In fact, Statcast says the most similar hitter profile to Ruiz is the 2022 season from Steven Kwan, which saw Kwan hit .298/.373/.400 and become a fantasy darling.

One reason Ruiz likely didn't match Kwan's batting average is that he lacks the same speed to beat out groundballs, but another reason could be the shift. Ruiz was shifted against 82.3% of the time, which was good for 54th in all of baseball. The shift was particularly impactful against Ruiz, likely because he didn't see it nearly as much in the minor leagues. He had just a .300 wOBA against the shift but a .355 wOBA in non-shifted situations.

Ruiz's batting average also dipped in June and July, hitting .216 and .230, respectively. If you use the rolling graphs on Statcast, you can see an inverse relationship between his HardHit% and his launch angle. In June/July, his launch angle spiked, perhaps trying to hit for more power, but his batting average and HardHit% plummeted. When the launch angle fell in August and early September, the batting average rose again.

To me, that's just a young player figuring out how to succeed at the next level. Ruiz is not going to hit for power. In fact, I don't feel comfortable projecting him for more than 10 home runs; however, I do think the batting average will be a plus for fantasy managers and my .271 projection is conservative in my eyes. He will benefit from another year in the majors and the banning of the shift and should get all the at-bats he can handle in Washington.

ADP: 181st overall

Eric's Ranking: 150th overall

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