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Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher trade deadline risers and fallers to identify how they may perform in the rest of the season for Week 19.
Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance.
There are still a few days left before the MLB trade deadline but a lot of interesting moves have already happened. As such, I thought I would use this week's article to analyze a few pitchers who are on the move to identify how their performance may change and what that could mean for fantasy.
MLB trades can have a significant impact on players' fantasy values and there is still time for fantasy managers to make trades of their own. However, time is running out, so decisions have to be made. Let's take a look at how several real trades could impact fantasy leagues for the rest of the season!
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Trade Deadline Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 30, 2023.
Lucas Giolito, Los Angeles Angels
6-7, 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25.7% Strikeout Rate
Lucas Giolito was one of the first big names moved, leaving the underachieving White Sox for the seemingly invigorated Angels. While he took a loss in his first start with his new team on Friday, Giolito has overall righted the ship this season with a 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 25.7% strikeout rate in 22 starts. Should the improved team context provide an extra boost for the rest of the season?
For starters, the park move is more or less lateral from Guaranteed Rate Field to Angel Stadium. Statcast's overall park factor for both is 101, with a 113 home run park factor in the latter and a 111 HR park factor in the former. This shouldn't really change much in terms of Giolito's output, as both are slightly hitter-friendly overall and more prone to allow HR than other stadiums.
The HR proclivity does not favor Giolito, who has allowed harder-than-average contact this season with a career-high 18.5-degree launch angle. This has led to a career-high 45.6% fly ball rate and, while his 14% HR/FB rate is in line with his 14.3% career mark, the total number of HR allowed has increased to 1.57 HR/9.
His pitch location may have to do with this. Giolito does a good job mixing up his fastball, slider, and changeup, but only his slider has been located well overall. While he has left his changeup in the middle of the plate too often for comfort and has experienced contact in the air with his fastball and changeup, he has only allowed hard contact on the fastball. His pitch mix has worked in keeping hitters off-balance.
On the plus side, his success on balls in play has increased from last season. Giolito clearly got unlucky on balls in play in 2022 with a career-high .340 BABIP, but his current .279 mark is exactly in line with his career average.
The overall team context switch is obviously a win for Giolito and he should be able to earn a few more wins with the Angels. It is worth noting that he may not make quite as many starts the rest of the way due to the implementation of a six-man rotation, but fantasy managers will take that with the much-improved offense backing him.
In terms of personal performance, Giolito has performed well enough to be a consistent fantasy option this season. The hard contact in the air is a slight cause for concern, but his luck on balls in play has returned to normal. Overall, I think the change benefits Giolito, although I still consider him to be a slightly above-mid-tier fantasy option for the rest of the season.
Jordan Montgomery, Texas Rangers
6-9, 3.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 21.2% Strikeout Rate
The first Rangers acquisition in this article is Jordan Montgomery, who was traded from the selling Cardinals on Sunday. Montgomery has quietly put together another solid season with a 3.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 21.2% strikeout rate in 21 starts. What does the trade mean for his future performance?
First, while the Rangers are a much better offense than the Cardinals, the Cardinals have hit surprisingly well overall despite their poor record. Further, Montgomery does not give up many HR. Statcast's HR park factor for Globe Life Field is hitter-friendly but not nearly as much as Busch Stadium.
In terms of analysis under the hood, not a ton stands out either way for Montgomery. He isn't a huge strikeout pitcher but allows softer-than-average contact and has a respectable 11.4-degree launch angle. He has relied heavily on his sinker this season and has gotten a decent .270 average and .416 slugging percentage with the pitch and a five-degree launch angle.
The Rangers' infield is not as good as the Cardinals, which could hurt his .297 BABIP slightly and could bring his ERA closer to his 4.30 SIERA. However, Montgomery has found success throughout his career with the same general pitching approach, so this should not be a huge issue.
Montgomery does not often receive a ton of attention from a fantasy perspective because he isn't flashy, but he has now been a solid contributor for three consecutive seasons. His upside is not as high as Giolito's, but he should produce more consistent outputs for the rest of the season. The team move may hurt him a bit defensively but should provide a greater benefit in offensive support.
Trade Deadline Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 30, 2023.
Lance Lynn, Los Angeles Dodgers
6-9, 6.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 26.9% Strikeout Rate
While Lance Lynn has been quite a frustrating player from a fantasy perspective this season, his name still caused a splash in the trade market. The veteran has left the White Sox for one of baseball's best teams in the Dodgers. While this seems exciting in general, Lynn's 6.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP are hard to find confidence in. Could this move finally help him get back on track?
As I have mentioned previously in this article series, the weird thing about Lynn is that there isn't much in his underlying numbers to indicate why his results have been so poor. Lynn's pitch movements and velocities have been pretty much the same as last season as well as his batted-ball profile. He has allowed middling hard contact throughout his career but has found success, so this doesn't seem to be a culprit.
The obvious culprit in terms of results has been the huge number of HR. Lynn has experienced a career-high 20.6% HR/FB rate compared to a 10.9% mark and has endured a devastating 2.11 HR/9 rate. Unfortunately, Dodger Stadium's 123 Statcast HR park factor is even worse than Guaranteed Rate Field's 111.
Lynn still presents a fantasy conundrum. There isn't anything to explain why he has started allowing so many HR, but the fact remains that he has. The Dodgers are clearly a better team, but their home stadium has been more friendly to hitters in the longball department.
The fact that the Dodgers are better may actually put a tighter leash on Lynn, who was averaging almost 5 2/3 innings per start with the White Sox. Ultimately, it wouldn't really matter which team Lynn played on if he were pitching like his old self, and the opposite may be true. It would be a great move fantasy-wise if he can figure things out, but I don't think the move matters much if he can't.
Max Scherzer, Texas Rangers
9-4, 4.01 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 27.3% Strikeout Rate
The second Rangers acquisition is someone who has been a top-notch fantasy option throughout his career. Max Scherzer's season has not gone as well as many had hoped, much like the Mets' season as a whole. While he has still pitched well, his 4.01 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 27.3% strikeout rate are not reflective of what he has turned in for the majority of his career. Will the switch to a playoff contender help Scherzer find himself?
Like Lynn, Scherzer's issue has been too many HR. His overall Statcast profile looks like it has over the past several seasons and he has always been a fly ball pitcher, so this is not new. He also hasn't allowed any harder contact this season. Despite this, his HR/FB rate sits at 16.2% compared with a career 10.6% mark with a 1.92 HR/9 rate.
Unlike Lynn, Scherzer does have an identifiable culprit: his slider location. He has thrown the pitch 17.6% of the time compared to 23.4% last season, but he has allowed nine HR on the pitch compared to none last season. Scherzer was able to pinpoint the pitch low and away to righties consistently in 2022, but this season that location has drifted to the middle of the plate. Consequently, the pitch has gotten hit a lot harder and has seen a launch angle jump from 13 degrees to 21.
This is another case where the shift to a different team may not end up making a big difference in terms of Scherzer's fantasy performance. Citi Field did have a pitcher-friendly HR park factor compared to Globe Life Field, but the main issue of Scherzer's slider location would do him in regardless of where he pitches.
The veteran has had a fantastic career and could very well make the adjustment needed to regain top-tier form, but it is hard to believe until you see it. I still think Scherzer is an above-average fantasy option, but his ceiling will remain limited if he cannot keep the ball in the park, even with the Rangers.
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