Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for xFIP (Week 17)

July 17, 2023

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose xFIP could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 17.

Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! The second half of the season is now underway, and I will return to my standard format for this article series. Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance.

With a lot of baseball left to be played, I am going to take a look at an expected metric this week: expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP). FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over: strikeouts, unintentional walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. It does not consider balls hit in play. xFIP calculates a pitcher's FIP, but it uses the projected home run rate instead of the actual home runs allowed. The home run rate is determined by that season's league average HR/FB rate.

The main difference between FIP and xFIP is that xFIP is based on the notion that pitchers have more control over how many fly balls they allow than how many of those fly balls leave the park. The specific calculation can be found on the MLB's website. The trade deadline is right around the corner for the MLB and fantasy leagues. Let's take advantage of that time to analyze some Studs and Duds!

xFIP Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 16, 2023.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

8-7, 3.14 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.91 xFIP

Logan Webb has been a solid fantasy starter once again this season, compiling a 3.14 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 25.3% strikeout rate through 19 starts while averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. Further, his 2.91 xFIP is currently the third-lowest among qualified starters. Are there any doubts about him being a second-half stud as well?

Webb's 3.22 FIP and xFIP are both so low because he is a groundball pitcher. His sinker, changeup, and slider have led to a 2.7-degree launch angle. He has also seen his strikeout rate jump back up from 2022 due to throwing his changeup more. This has been his best swing-and-miss pitch with a 16.9% swinging-strike rate and he has thrown the pitch six percent more this season at 36.9% usage.

The one thing to note about Webb's profile is that he has allowed very hard contact this season. Hard groundball contact is not as damaging as hard contact in the air, but Webb's exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom 17 and eight percent of baseball, respectively.

Consequently, his 16% HR/FB rate is a good deal higher than his career 12% mark. This is still a low mark, but the contact he has allowed in the air has been more costly.

Overall, Webb's profile under the hood supports his strong peripherals. He keeps the ball on the ground, doesn't walk hitters, pitches deep into games, and has tweaked his pitch mix to get more strikeouts. His FIP and xFIP are both strong, suggesting that the hard contact he has allowed shouldn't turn into poor results. As such, fantasy managers should feel confident in Webb serving as a high-floor fantasy option for the second half of the season.

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

6-6, 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.00 xFIP

While he has certainly been a serviceable fantasy option this season, Hunter Brown hasn't been quite what fantasy managers had hoped for. His 4.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP are mediocre, but his 28.1% strikeout rate and 3.00 xFIP are much better. What should fantasy managers make of these discrepancies?

Like Webb, Brown is a groundball pitcher with a 4.4-degree launch angle. Consequently, his 0.86 HR/9 rate and 17% HR/FB rate help his xFIP. He does have a more overpowering pitch arsenal than Webb, giving him better strikeout numbers. His 8.4% walk rate isn't as stellar as Webb's, but it isn't high enough to negatively impact his xFIP.

Despite the positives, there is a main reason his ERA has not matched his 3.34 FIP or xFIP. FIP and xFIP don't take balls in play into account, which has not been kind to Brown. Like Webb, he has allowed hard contact. However, despite keeping the ball on the ground, the contact he has allowed has led to a lot of baserunners.

This is partly reflected in his WHIP and is definitely reflected in his .349 BABIP. Given the hard contact and a career .339 BABIP, I would take this at face value rather than attributing it to bad luck.

Brown's ERA hasn't aligned with his xFIP to this point but there are some reasons to explain that. The main one is that he hasn't found success on balls in play. Brown's 3.78 xERA and 3.42 SIERA, which consider batted-ball profile, do suggest that there may be slightly better results ahead for him. However, his current BABIP is not out of line with his career average.

Given the team he pitches for and his strikeout prowess, I think Brown should serve as a useful middle-to-back-of-the-rotation fantasy starter for the second half of the season. There may be a bit of positive regression for him, but I don't think there is as much as his ERA-xFIP comparison may suggest.

xFIP Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 16, 2023.

JP Sears, Oakland Athletics

1-6, 3.97 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4.95 xFIP

JP Sears has been a surprise fantasy option this season, compiling a 3.97 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate in 18 starts with the Athletics. However, his 4.95 xFIP is one of the highest in baseball among qualified starters. Should fantasy managers expect him to continue to be useful?

The main issue for Sears is the amount of home runs he allows. He actually allows below-average hard contact, as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 72nd and 65th percentiles of baseball, respectively. However, he is an extreme flyball pitcher with a 24.4-degree launch angle and a 57.2% flyball rate. Consequently, while his 12% HR/FB rate is actually lower than the previous two pitchers, he has a much higher 1.72 HR/9 rate.

Sears has gotten pretty good results overall, but his pitching style and xFIP suggest there could be worse results on the way. He doesn't really allow hard contact, but he allows so many flyballs that there are many more opportunities for the ball to leave the yard.

Considering this and the team he pitches for, I wouldn't expect Sears' second half to be as strong as his first half. That being said, I don't think fantasy managers necessarily expect him to perform this well anyway. I think it makes sense to roll with him until regression finally starts to hit (if it ever does).

Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals

6-7, 3.41 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4.70 xFIP

Josiah Gray has had quite the surprise season to this point, earning himself an All-Star appearance with a 3.41 ERA in 18 starts. However, his 1.44 WHIP and 4.70 xFIP suggest that he may still be the underperformer he was the past several seasons. Should fantasy managers trust him for the second half?

First, it is worth noting that Gray has really improved in not allowing home runs. He has managed a career-low 13.5-degree launch angle. This has led to fewer fly balls, an improved 13% HR/FB rate, and a much-improved 1.26 HR/9 rate. He has always avoided hard contact but struggled to keep the ball out of the air, so this has been an encouraging development.

On the flip side, there are a number of reasons his xFIP is so high. First, Gray has put too many runners on for free. He currently has a career-high 10.8% walk rate, which has led to a poor 4.22 BB/9 rate. Second, his 21.1% strikeout rate is a career-low and below-average overall.

One final thought is that, despite the decent batted-ball profile, Gray has incurred an inflated .297 BABIP, which isn't accounted for in xFIP. His career average is .268, so it does appear that Gray has experienced some bad luck to this point on balls in play.

Gray presents a mixed bag of encouraging and alarming signs. He has avoided runs and has cut down on home runs, but has seen a drop in strikeouts, a rise in walks, and an increase in damaging contact on balls in play. Gray was once a fantasy prospect but has a career 4.62 ERA and 1.38 WHIP despite his strong first half. All in all, I am not comfortable believing in what Gray has done and would try to sell high on him for the second half of the season.

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