Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for Exit Velocity (Week 4)

April 19, 2023

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose exit velocities could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 4.

Welcome to the second edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. With plenty of home runs being hit and high-scoring games, I will investigate average exit velocity (EV) this week.

EV is a more telling stat for hitters, as they have a greater influence on the measure than pitchers. However, pitchers who can avoid hard contact generally see better results. EV in combination with several other metrics can provide pretty compelling insights for pitchers.

This week, I will be taking a look at pitchers whose average EV has been great or poor in the early going. Hopefully, this will help fantasy managers get a better idea of some interesting players. It's never too early to start targeting fantasy trade candidates and giving yourself an edge for the season, so let's get going!

Exit Velocity Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 16, 2023.

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

1-0, 3.57 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 82.9 MPH EV

Mitch Keller was once a high-end fantasy prospect. While he has yet to deliver, there have been some positive signs over the course of his career. He has started off strong, compiling a 3.57 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 29.3% strikeout rate in his first three starts.

His early success could be attributed to the lack of hard contact he has allowed, with an 82.9 mph EV that is in the top five percent of baseball. Could the 27-year-old finally be putting it together?

The main change for Keller seems to be the introduction of a cutter. He has thrown the pitch the most at 23.9% and has allowed an impressive 75.8 mph off of it. Keller has also done a good job mixing his pitches and has not allowed more than 83.6 mph off each of his four main pitches.

Mitch Keller, Nasty 92mph Cutter. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/fiaRholO4I

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 11, 2023

It will be interesting to see if Keller can keep things up by throwing fastball variants 63.1% of the time. His four-seamer, sinker, and cutter all have different movements and he has generated above a 15% swinging strike rate on both his four-seamer and cutter.

Keller has fooled fantasy managers before, but he has looked good to start 2023. The reliance on his cutter has helped Keller avoid damaging contact despite relying heavily on fastballs. He is rostered in just 28% of leagues and is worth keeping an eye on. I am reserved for now, but we will see how Keller fares in his next couple of starts.

Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals

0-3, 4.32 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 84.1 MPH EV

Josiah Gray is another pitcher who started as a fantasy prospect but has not been able to put it together. The 25-year-old has lost his first three starts with a 4.32 ERA, but his 84.1 mph EV is in the top eight percent of baseball. Could his batted-ball profile lead to better results in his next few starts?

Gray has made some encouraging changes. He has relied on his slider and curveball more than his fastballs this season, which have been his weakest pitches historically. His batted-ball profile looks better as well, with the low EV and a respectable 7.1-degree launch angle.

Unfortunately, the issues that have plagued Gray in the past still persist. Home runs have been a problem, with a 2.16 HR/9 rate and a 22.2% HR/FB rate. Further, his fastball has still been a poor pitch, yielding a .500 batting average and .500 slugging percentage. This does seem a little odd to me since he has done a better job keeping the ball out of the air and hasn't allowed hard contact, but it is hard to overlook given his track record.

I do think there may be some positive regression for Gray given his batted-ball profile, but I need to see it before even thinking of trusting him. It remains to be seen if his changes will continue to reflect in his batted-ball profile, and then if those improvements will translate to better results.

Exit Velocity Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 16, 2023.

Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox

0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 92.6 MPH EV

Nick Pivetta seems to always be a late-round fantasy target given his strikeout upside. He turned in two decent starts before getting clobbered yesterday, but the strikeouts have been there with a 25% strikeout rate. The hard contact has also been there, with an EV in the bottom 11 percent of baseball. Is this enough to turn fantasy managers away?

The 30-year-old relies mainly on a four-seamer, curveball, and slider. While his pitch locations have been alright, he has allowed very hard contact on both the four-seamer and curveball. His batted-ball profile is similar to that of previous seasons and his results have been similar, so there isn't much surprising here.

Nothing seems to have changed for Pivetta and his numbers reflect that. He has gotten the strikeouts due to a moving fastball and curveball, but the rest of his Statcast profile leaves a lot to be desired.

I personally have not trusted Pivetta for some time now, and the underlying numbers suggest fantasy managers should not either. They do support his strikeout prowess, but he has continued to allow hard contact in the air. Overall, this is not a sustainable profile for a pitcher trying to be successful.

Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants

0-0, 1.17 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 92.8 MPH EV

While Alex Wood has endured injuries throughout his career, he has had flashes as an above-average starter. His tenure with the Giants has had ups and downs, but he has managed a stellar 1.17 ERA through his first two starts. However, he has allowed a lot of hard contact, so what should fantasy managers expect going forward?

Nothing really stands out so far in terms of things Wood has done differently. His pitch mix of sinker, slider, and changeup has stayed the same and his pitch locations are similar to where they have been in previous seasons. His batted-ball profile is the most different, with an EV and launch angle much higher than the rest of his career.

I would be concerned if Wood's batted-ball profile continues to look this much worse than it has historically, but he has only pitched 7 2/3 innings. As such, I would not put much stock into his current EV. The Giants have been finicky with their rotation to this point, but Wood is worth keeping an eye on in deeper leagues at this time.

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