Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for BABIP (Week 6)

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose BABIP could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 6.

Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Over the last two weeks, I looked at different components of pitchers' batted-ball profiles: exit velocity and launch angle. This week, I investigate an outcome of batted-ball profile: batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

BABIP measures a player's batting average on balls hit into the field of play, removing outcomes the defense cannot affect, such as home runs and strikeouts. BABIP is not something the pitcher completely controls. For instance, faster hitters are more likely to beat out slow ground balls for hits, and better defenses may allow fewer hits compared to weaker defenses. That being said, pitchers who are pitching well will likely have lower BABIPs compared to those who are not.

BABIP in relation to batted-ball profile is particularly interesting because it can help identify over and underachievers. We would expect to see pitchers with strong batted-ball profiles have lower BABIPs in general, and vice versa. Any discrepancies may be opportunities to buy low or sell high on pitchers. For reference, the league-average BABIP is typically around .300. Using the underlying metrics can help fantasy managers identify winning moves before their opponents, so let's start looking!

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BABIP Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 30, 2023.

Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs

4-0, 1.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .205 BABIP

Justin Steele emerged as a decent fantasy option in 2022 and has gotten off to a stellar start in 2023. He has gone 4-0 through five starts with a 1.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 25.2% strikeout rate. He has also benefited from an excellent .205 BABIP. Can he keep it up as the season progresses?

Steele's batted-ball profile certainly backs up his BABIP. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 92nd and 89th percentile of baseball, respectively. He has paired soft contact with a decent 9.7-degree launch angle. This has led to solid results despite having a lackluster defense behind him.

Further, Steele has managed his success with essentially two pitches. His fastball doesn't have a ton of velocity but has an above-average spin, and his slider has a ton of horizontal movement. It is good to be wary of starters who only have two pitches, but Steele has been getting the job done since last season.

Justin Steele, 93mph Fastball and 85mph Slider, Overlay pic.twitter.com/ngRWIMM5aw

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 26, 2023

I don't think it is reasonable to expect Steele to continue to have such a low BABIP given his career value is .287. However, he has been one of the few starters who has been reliable to start the season. As such, I would continue to rely on Steele.

Domingo German, New York Yankees

2-2, 5.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .211 BABIP

Domingo German has had a much more muddled start to the season than Steele. In a way, he has encapsulated the entire pitching landscape. His ERA has been high, but he has posted a strong 1.08 WHIP and 30.8% strikeout rate. He also has a solid .211 BABIP. What should fantasy managers make of him?

German's profile is full of contradictions. His batted-ball profile is middle-of-the-road and is similar to his career marks. However, he has done much better on balls in play compared to a career .269 BABIP. Further, he hasn't necessarily allowed a lot of contact in the air but has a massive 2.42 HR/9 rate, which is excluded from BABIP.

He has done a good job mixing his pitches as per usual, but nothing stands out in terms of the strikeout jump. The one thing that does stand out is that German's four-seam fastball has been by far his worst pitch. This has been the culprit for the home runs. While he has primarily relied on his curveball, I question if German can perform well long-term without a good fastball.

German has presented a murky case through his first five starts. He has gotten great results on balls in play, has gotten crushed on balls out of play, has gotten a lot of strikeouts, and has yielded a poor ERA despite a 3.46 SIERA. At this point, I am not sure what to expect from him going forward. The strikeouts make him a decent play in points leagues, but I would avoid him in roto leagues until we get a clearer picture.

BABIP Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 30, 2023.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

2-1, 6.31 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, .471 BABIP

Nick Lodolo came into the season as a starter that fantasy managers were hoping would take another step forward. He looked good in his first three starts, but two consecutive awful starts have ballooned his numbers to an unsightly 6.31 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 29.6% strikeout rate, and .471 BABIP. What's going on, and should fantasy managers be concerned?

Ultimately, Lodolo hasn't been great, but I do think this can be chalked up to some bad luck. He has given up harder contact but has a respectable 7-degree launch angle. He does work in the top of the zone but did not have a home run issue last season compared to a current 2.10 HR/9 rate. Nothing stands out as to why his BABIP has or should be this poor.

Lodolo looked like the pitcher fantasy managers were hoping for early on and has continued to strike hitters out. He has gotten hit hard but not hard enough to support a .471 BABIP as he allowed five home runs in a two-game span. While it is frustrating, I would suggest that fantasy managers take a deep breath and allow for a bit of time for some regression toward normal results.

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox

0-4, 7.16 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .354 BABIP

Lance Lynn is one of the many starting pitchers fantasy managers were hoping to be reliable who has been anything but. Through six starts, Lynn has amassed a poor 7.16 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 28.4% strikeout rate. Further, his bloated .354 BABIP could be a cause of his lack of success. Like Lodolo, what should fantasy managers do with Lynn?

Simply put, Lynn has gotten hit very hard this season. He traditionally has been successful relying mainly on different fastballs. However, only his cutter and sinker have yielded passable results to this point. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 36th and 17th percentiles of baseball, respectively. Combine this with a 13.9-degree launch angle, and it will be difficult to succeed.

Lynn has a long track record of being an effective fantasy asset working with what he has, but that hasn't translated this season. He has given up hard contract in the air throwing mainly fastballs, which have led to poor results both in and out of play. His 3.96 SIERA suggests he may be getting a bit unlucky, but there isn't a ton to be excited about.

I am somewhat hesitant to give up on Lynn this early, but I do not blame fantasy managers for sitting him until he can put forth a decent start.

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