RADIO
Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.
We've surpassed the quarter mark of the 2018 baseball season and with each additional outing, our starters are becoming a better representation of their true attributes. In other words, they either are who we thought they were, or they're not. At this juncture in the fantasy season, historical ADP becomes less meaningful, and adept managers acknowledge the shifting expectations of player performances. As we discuss risers and fallers this week, we'll try our best to assess a player's value right now.
For Week 8, our focus will be on poor-contact ISO. Every pitcher falls victim to the occasional blooper that drops for a hit. Typically, they're just singles. However, by looking at poor-contact ISO, we can find discrepancies in batted-ball results that don't mesh with the Statcast data. Duck snort doubles occasionally happen, but it's safe to assume they shouldn't occur with reliable frequency. Our argument this week will look at ISO on weak batted-balls and identify pitcher luck that should normalize. For reference, the median ISO for a poorly contacted batted-ball event (BBE) is .024. The median ISO for all BBEs so far in 2018 is .154.
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Bound to Pop
All stats as of May 21 for 94 qualified pitchers with over 750 pitches thrown
Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs (5-3, 4.47 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.38 K/9)
Jose Quintana has the highest poor-contact ISO in the majors at .167, which is 13 points higher than the average ISO of all batted-ball events (.154). That's an outlier. Quintana's been highly inconsistent this season across nine appearances, sprinkling in four quality starts along with three outings allowing six earned runs or more.
Because of the blowup games, Quintana's .184 overall ISO indeed falls in the highest-third for qualified pitchers. With his Hard% up to 37.1% this year, that makes sense. The incongruity occurs in the 14.7% Soft% that's being inexplicably slugged hard. Encouragingly, Quintana's LD%/GB%/FB% are in-line year-over-year, so his batted-ball distribution hasn't shifted dramatically. His 92.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity also isn't egregious. If Quintana can bring the Soft% closer to his career figure of 16.8%, the poorly batted-balls may revert to more acceptable singles or outs.
Quintana's rest-of-season value rests mostly on his consistency. A frustrated owner could be ready to deal. Much of Quintana's struggles are self-inflicted (4.66 BB/9), resulting in excessively laborious outings. Hitters are swinging at only 25.3% of pitches outside the zone, limiting his effectiveness in areas where he's thrived. If Quintana harnesses his control, batters may be more tempted to chase, raising the Soft% mix and inducing more desirable poor contact results.
Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-3, 3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.94 K/9)
Jameson Taillon has a more acceptable poor-contact ISO of .056, but that is still 10th-highest for starting pitchers. After two subpar performances in late April, Taillon has bounced back with three acceptable outings. Despite a high 14.6% HR/FB, Taillon's overall ISO of .138 is bottom-half in the majors.
Taillon's poor-contact ISO could be a product of tough luck. Batters are swinging outside the zone at a 32.4% clip, but his 71.4% O-Contact% falls in the top-20. Looking at exit velocity, he's about average for all different batted-ball types. The issue with Taillon's BBEs is a FB% that's jumped to 31.3%, exacerbating the HR/FB problem. But even with the gopher ball issues, Taillon's overall ISO profile doesn't appear a concern.
It could be worth targeting Taillon in the trade market or claiming him if he's a free agent. He isn't putting up ace-like numbers (4.29 FIP), but a few adjustments could improve his results. Taillon's fastball velocity is stable (95.2 MPH), but he's had issues with a faulty changeup. Lowering the FB% would also diminish the impact of surrendering home runs. If he maintains his below-average aggregate ISO, the poor contact outcomes are likely to follow favorably.
Other possible underachievers: Tyler Anderson (COL, .161 poor-contact ISO), Jose Urena (MIA, .083), Vince Velasquez (PHI, .064)
Due to Drop
Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins (3-2, 3.17 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.17 K/9)
In terms of ERA and strikeouts, Jake Odorizzi is off to the best start of his career. The strikeouts are supported by an 11.4% SwStr%, and his ratios have definitely been helped by a .000 poor-contact ISO. Odorizzi has ridden a five-pitch arsenal to emerge as a quality fantasy asset.
Odorizzi's overall ISO is .216, good for 11th-worst in the league. That figure does not jive well with his perfect poor contact results. He's been able to produce soft contact at a 23.3% rate, almost six points above his career averages. By lowering the Med% and Hard%, Odorizzi's limited the damage from well-hit BBEs. Despite the higher Soft%, Odorizzi is surrendering line drives and fly balls at the highest rate of his career. He's also 22nd-highest out of 129 pitchers with a 94.7 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. Something seems suspicious.
Odorizzi's 4.84 FIP, .257 BABIP and 87.3% LOB% agrees with the fluky translation of his BBEs into headline numbers. He's been a waiver wire gem, but probably not a player worth overpaying for. With the way batters are pulling his balls in the air, the Soft% doesn't seem sustainable. Owners may want to pick his starts instead of placing blind trust in Odorizzi. He might be due for a clunker.
Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers (2-4, 3.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.93 K/9)
Cole Hamels has continued his great career in 2018, allowing three or fewer runs in seven of nine starts. The veteran is getting ahead in counts (60.4% F-Strike%) and has supported the strikeout numbers by lowering his Contact% from 79.2% to 73.9%. However, where Hamels could be unjustifiably benefiting is his 17th-lowest poor-contact ISO of only .012.
Compared to a .193 overall ISO, Hamel's weak contact counterpart is too low. Under the hood, Hamels appears to be doing more with less; the auspicious poor-contact ISO accompanies a low 14.8% Soft%. Hamels is actually giving up the hardest contact of his career (43.7%) which has ballooned his HR/FB to 18.4%. Hamels also ranks top-third in Barrels per BBE (9.2%).
Excluding the poor-contact ISO, Hamels has the feel of a pitcher in decline. His velocity is down, he's issuing more walks than ever and possesses a 4.82 FIP. His high ownership tag suggests Hamel's name brand still holds relevance. He could remain a useful fantasy starter season-long, but faithful Hamels owners should beware. His batted-ball characteristics are deteriorating and the soft contact has generated fortuitous outcomes. Objective owners might consider capitalizing on his trade value after the recent string of successful starts.
Other possible overachievers: Caleb Smith (MIA, .000 poor-contact ISO), Masahiro Tanaka (NYY, .000), Carlos Carrasco (CLE, .009)
