X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xwOBA Analysis for Week 7

With many hitters finally passing the 100-plate appearance threshold for 2021, we can begin to dig into expected statistics to see who is underperforming or overachieving. A good place to start is xwOBA, or expected weighted on-base average. For those unfamiliar with the term, BaseballSavant describes it thusly: "xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed." It's a bit complicated but let's just say it uses the whole kitchen sink full of Statcast goodies to determine how efficiently a player is performing and should be reaching base.

You'll find the usual studs near the top, so I'll focus on players that you might not expect to see. As always, don't miss out on the pitching version of this series with a look at xSLG risers/fallers.

All Statcast metrics are current as of May 10, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

 xwOBA Studs

Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins

.450 xwOBA in 80 PA

It's so hard to trust Donaldson based on his age and injury history but Holy Toledo look at those early Statcast numbers:

He Who Brings Forth Precipitation has only gone deep three times but he is hitting the ball harder than ever while practically chopping his strikeout rate in half. Donaldson is usually among the leaders in the power categories but early on in 2021 he is posting career-bests in barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, K%, xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA.

It only took one game before Donaldson hit the injured list, so many fantasy managers were immediately scared off of him. Fading Donaldson has proven to be a mistake so far. There's always the chance of another IL stint, so acquiring him right now is too risky and trying to "sell high" might not provide enough in return. If you have Donaldson, ride his hot bat while you can and hope he doesn't fall victim to the injury bug that seems to be going around in Minnesota.

Carson Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

.447 xwOBA in 97 PA

Just below players like Ronald Acuna Jr., Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto, we have good ol' Carson Kelly ranking seventh in xwOBA among all qualified hitters. He is slashing .324/.474/.606 and continues to be the best hitter in Arizona. Statcast says he's earned every bit of it, as there is only a .006 difference between his wOBA and xwOBA while his xSLG is .051 higher than his SLG. This massive leap in production has come with improved plate discipline and a 19.8 walk rate. This is a complete 180 from last season, when his walk rate fell to 4.7% and his xwOBA was among the worst in baseball at .267.

With nearly 100 plate appearances under his belt, we can no longer scream "small sample!" Kelly tops the 100-PA Rolling xwOBA leaderboard with an increase of .184 tracing back to last season. His presence among the best hitters in the league is off-putting but we may be seeing a legitimate breakout. He is alternating between the top of the lineup and the fifth spot on any given night. It would be nice to see him settle in at the No. 2 position given his OBP. Kelly should be universally rostered and started in all leagues by now.

Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants

.420 xwOBA in 104 PA

Gabe Kapler's offseason training regimen must have been something out of the movie "Cocoon." Longoria is one of several veterans in San Fran experiencing a career revival despite being well past their prime. Buster Posey also fits in this column with his .445 xwOBA that ranks right behind fellow backstop Carson Kelly. For his part, Longoria is posting career-highs in barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk rate, and of course xwOBA. The EV stands out most, especially his 100 MPH exit velo on FB/LD that ranks fourth out of all hitters with at least 50 batted-ball events.

Longo has been scorching since the season started and is riding a five-game hitting streak but it should be noted that he hasn't gone deep since April 13, a span of 49 at-bats. In that time, he's hitting a mere .250 with no homers, six RBI, 10 runs, and, shockingly, no steals. His rolling xwOBA shows a steady dip toward league average.

Don't let season-long stats mislead you - he is hitting well this year but his blazing hot April is masking a mediocre May thus far.

 

xwOBA Duds

Elvis Andrus, Oakland A's

.238 xwOBA in 123 PA

It seems there was indeed a reason the Rangers decided to move on from the 13-year vet. He saw a sharp decline at the plate in a short 2020, slashing .194/.252/.330 with a .255 wOBA. He's proving the doubters right, slashing an even worse .158/.203/.211 with a miserable .175 wOBA.

If Andrus was going to deliver anywhere, it would be with speed. He does have three steals on the season but for someone who's played nearly every day on the team with the sixth-highest rate of SB attempts per game, it should be far more. His defense isn't a strong spot to point toward either, as he ranks in the seventh percentile in Outs Above Average. It can't be long before the A's look elsewhere to hold down the shortstop position.

Evan White, Seattle Mariners

.254 xwOBA in 96 PA

White is one of a trio of M's who reside in the bottom-25 along with Taylor Trammell and Tom Murphy. There was some thought that he might break through in his second big-league season based on a strong hard-hit rate (52.5%) and another year of seasoning to improve his plate discipline. That's not happening. Instead, White is again posting a miserable expected slash line of .193/.244/.297 and is near the bottom of the leaderboard in every major category other than max exit velocity.

White has the pedigree and the opportunity to make for a promising fantasy player but he seems lost at the plate more often than not. While his zone contact has improved five points from last year, it's still six points below league average. The same goes for his 31% Whiff% - better but not nearly enough and Mariners' fans are already getting fed up.


It's amazing that Seattle has a winning record despite five lineup regulars batting below .200 these days. White's job is safe but his role on fantasy rosters is simply a bench stash in AL-only or dynasty leagues until he turns things around.

Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds

.263 xwOBA in 90 PA

Another former first-round pick, India's fast start to the season is to blame for the Eugenio Suarez at shortstop experiment. India forced his way into the lineup and earned the second-base job, starting 23 of the team's 31 games so far. Much like Longoria, however, he faded quickly. After collecting 10 hits in his first six games, India has gone hitless in his past five games, dropping his average to .211 and his xwOBA to .261.

What's worse is that his actual wOBA is nine points higher, so we can't hold our breaths for positive regression. He's played worse on the road in particular and is showing a reverse split against lefties. These are the dips we can expect from young players at times, so to some extent we shouldn't hold it against him too much. On the other hand, India has just one homer and no steals, so without a high average we are getting no value from him. Never known as a power-hitting prospect, the best-case scenario is something akin to Jake Cronenworth. India shouldn't be rostered as of now.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Patrick Kane7 mins ago

Notches Two Points In Overtime Win
Blake Lizotte15 mins ago

Suffers Another Injury
Pyotr Kochetkov22 mins ago

Suffers Injury Versus Utah
Caleb Jones33 mins ago

Hurt On Wednesday
Darcy Kuemper40 mins ago

Exits With Injury Wednesday
LeBron James48 mins ago

Makes History With Third Consecutive Triple-Double
Jaxson Hayes57 mins ago

To Be Re-Evaluated In 1-2 Weeks
Walker Kessler1 hour ago

Remains Sidelined On Thursday
P.J. Washington1 hour ago

Considered Doubtful For Thursday
Luka Doncic1 hour ago

Expected To Remain In The Lineup Thursday
DeMar DeRozan1 hour ago

Exits Win With Back Problem
Aaron Rodgers1 hour ago

Leaning Toward Return In 2025
Grayson Allen13 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus Kings
D'Angelo Russell14 hours ago

Suiting Up On Wednesday
Bradley Beal14 hours ago

Unavailable Wednesday
DK Metcalf16 hours ago

Puts In Full Practice On Wednesday
Henrik Norlander16 hours ago

Needs Strong Showing At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Michael Kim16 hours ago

Playing Well Down The Stretch
Nick Taylor16 hours ago

Returns To Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Jhonattan Vegas16 hours ago

Playing Well Heading To Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Matthias Schmid16 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Patrick Rodgers16 hours ago

Heads To Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Mackenzie Hughes16 hours ago

Debuts At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Maverick McNealy16 hours ago

Seeking Back-To-Back Top-10 Finishes In Bermuda
Lucas Glover16 hours ago

In A Groove Ahead Of Bermuda Championship
Andrew Putnam16 hours ago

A Player To Watch In Bermuda
PGA16 hours ago

Nico Echavarria In Top Form Heading To Bermuda
Jusuf Nurkic16 hours ago

Back On Wednesday Night
Anfernee Simons17 hours ago

Won't Suit Up Against The Timberwolves
Robert Williams III17 hours ago

Resting In Rematch With Minnesota
Deandre Ayton17 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Andre Drummond17 hours ago

Out Sick On Wednesday
Paul George17 hours ago

Won't Play Versus Cleveland
Joel Embiid17 hours ago

Sitting On Wednesday
Tage Thompson17 hours ago

Labeled As Day-To-Day
Mattias Samuelsson17 hours ago

Out Indefinitely
Gabriel Landeskog17 hours ago

Remains Without A Timeline
Jonas Brodin18 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Thursday
Tank Bigsby18 hours ago

Listed As DNP On Wednesday
Andre Drummond18 hours ago

Listed As Questionable On Wednesday
Tyreek Hill18 hours ago

Misses Wednesday's Practice
Hampus Lindholm18 hours ago

Expected To Miss "Weeks"
Jani Hakanpaa18 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Tee Higgins18 hours ago

Officially Limited On Wednesday
Marcus Smart18 hours ago

Set To Play Wednesday
Seth Jarvis18 hours ago

Set To Miss A Second Consecutive Game
Michael Pittman Jr.18 hours ago

Practicing In Full
Brian Thomas Jr.18 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Josh Jacobs18 hours ago

Limited During Wednesday's Practice
Mike Conley18 hours ago

Resting Wednesday Versus Portland
Kirk Cousins18 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Najee Harris19 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey19 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
George Kittle19 hours ago

Not Practicing On Wednesday
Brian Robinson Jr.19 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
DK Metcalf19 hours ago

To Be Limited In Wednesday's Practice
Sam LaPorta20 hours ago

Misses Practice, Remains Day-To-Day
J.J. McCarthy21 hours ago

Undergoes Second Knee Surgery
Gardner Minshew II21 hours ago

Will Start In Week 11
Tee Higgins22 hours ago

Won't Practice But Bengals Encouraged With His Progress
Isiah Pacheco22 hours ago

Unlikely To Return In Week 11
Younghoe Koo22 hours ago

Falcons Sticking With Younghoe Koo As Their Kicker
Dalton Kincaid23 hours ago

No Practice For Dalton Kincaid On Wednesday
Nick Hardy1 day ago

Looks To Find Consistency On The Greens In Bermuda
Carson Young1 day ago

Hopes To Carry Recent Form To Bermuda
Brandon Clarke1 day ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Action
Kevin Yu1 day ago

A Name To Watch At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Marcus Smart1 day ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag Ahead Of Wednesday
Connor McDavid1 day ago

Leads Oilers To Victory With Four-Point Effort
Neal Pionk1 day ago

Records Three Assists In Historic Win
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Records First Shutout As Senator
Hampus Lindholm1 day ago

Taken Out By A Lower-Body Injury
Sam Bennett1 day ago

Battling An Upper-Body Injury
Lars Eller1 day ago

Returns To Washington
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

Among NL Silver Slugger Winners
Aaron Judge1 day ago

Headlines AL Silver Slugger Winners
Dante Fabbro2 days ago

Makes Blue Jackets Debut Tuesday
Wander Franco2 days ago

Now Facing Weapons Charges
Spencer Knight2 days ago

Set To Face Devils Tuesday
Travis d'Arnaud2 days ago

Agrees On Two-Year Deal With Angels
Logan Stanley2 days ago

Added To Injured Reserve
Brendon Todd2 days ago

A Hard Sell At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Greyson Sigg2 days ago

May Surprise In Bermuda
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

In For Adventure At Port Royal Golf Course
Mark Hubbard2 days ago

Plays Solid In Bermuda
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Tries To Build Off ZOZO Championship
Daniel Berger2 days ago

Looks To Continue His Consistent Run At Port Royal Golf Course
Justin Lower2 days ago

Looks To Continue His Hot Play At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
2 days ago

Blue Jays, Red Sox To Meet With Juan Soto
Jasson Domínguez3 days ago

Yankees Expect Jasson Dominguez To Have A Big Role In 2025
Carlos Correa3 days ago

Progressing
Carlos Prates3 days ago

Gets Higlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC Vegas 100
Neil Magny3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 100
Cortavious Romious3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 100
Gaston Bolaños3 days ago

Gaston Bolanos Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Joey Logano3 days ago

Holds On At Phoenix To Win His Third Cup Series Championship
Los Angeles Dodgers3 days ago

Dodgers Considered Favorites For Roki Sasaki
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Falls Short Of The 2024 Cup Series Title At Phoenix
Dusko Todorovic3 days ago

Gets TKO'd At UFC Vegas 100
Wander Franco3 days ago

Arrested On Monday After Altercation
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Lacks Speed Of Other Championship 4 Contenders But Drives Well
William Byron3 days ago

Finishes Third In Phoenix Race And Championship
Miami Marlins4 days ago

Marlins Hire Clayton McCullough As New Skipper
Mansur Abdul-Malik4 days ago

Gets First-Round Finish At UFC Vegas 100
Luana Pinheiro4 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Vegas 100
Gillian Robertson4 days ago

Extends Win Streak At UFC Vegas 100
Gerald Meerschaert4 days ago

Gets Finished At UFC Vegas 100
MMA4 days ago

Reinier de Ridder Gets Submission Win In UFC Debut
4 days ago

Rays Have Interest In Juan Soto
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace Is A Top DFS Recommendation With Upside For Phoenix
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Is Expected To Compete For The Title At Phoenix
Joey Logano4 days ago

Is One Of The Favorites To Win At Phoenix
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Could Be A Favorable DFS Option For Phoenix Lineups
Corey Lajoie4 days ago

Corey LaJoie Will Start 20th At Phoenix
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Is A Solid Recommendation For Phoenix DFS Lineups
Erik Jones4 days ago

Will Start 19th At Phoenix This Week
Carson Hocevar4 days ago

Will Compete For A Top-10 Finish At Phoenix
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Should DFS Players Fade Ty Gibbs At Phoenix?
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Is Chase Elliott A Solid DFS Pick For Phoenix Lineups?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

The Championship Favorite Despite Qualifying Blunder
William Byron4 days ago

Will Be Strong In Fight For Championship
Austin Cindric4 days ago

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Is Great At Phoenix
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Looking To Go Back-To-Back At Phoenix After Championship Snub
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Can Be Worth Rostering In Tournaments At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Could Contend At Phoenix
5 days ago

Nick Martinez Expected To Accept Qualifying Offer
MLB5 days ago

Roki Sasaki Will Be Posted, Opens Door For 2025 MLB Debut
Nolan Arenado6 days ago

Could Be On The Trade Block
Zach Neto6 days ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Could Miss Start Of 2025
Mason Miller6 days ago

To Stay In The Bullpen
Shohei Ohtani6 days ago

Shoulder Surgery Could Delay His Pitching
New York Yankees6 days ago

Yankees Exercise Aaron Boone's Option
Carlos Prates6 days ago

Looks For His Fourth Win In A Row
Neil Magny6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
MMA6 days ago

Benardo Sopaj Looks For His First UFC Win

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Sam Darnold - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Superflex 2QB Rankings for Week 11 - Thursday Updates for Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, Bo Nix, Ladd McConkey, Khalil Shakir

Somehow, the fantasy football playoffs are roughly a month away, so if you're in a must-win situation, it's critical to set optimal lineups for the upcoming slate. If you need assistance, our Week 11 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for fantasy football can assist your efforts. Let's get to it! To begin Week 11 preparation, […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

2024 Fantasy Football Rankings (Weekly Rankings)

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.


Ja'Marr Chase - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 11 (2024)

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends Analysis For Week 11 by Kevin Tompkins Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent […]


Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS and Betting Picks, NFL Injury News

Rest-of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 11 Updates for Top 200 (2024)

It's the thick of November with four games left before the playoffs for many of you, which means it's time for an updated rest-of-season rankings chart! We keep sifting through evolving developments, such as key players returning from injuries or dealing with fragile quarterback situations. Let's see who is rising and falling with our Week […]


Video: Week 11 Must-Start Defense (D/ST) Streamers - 2024 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Analysis

Let's get ready for Week 11, RotoBallers! Check out our top 2024 fantasy football must-start Defenses (D/ST) and be prepared to dominate your matchups! LaQuan Jones discusses his top "Must Start" Defense (D/ST) streamers that have the potential to be game-changers in Week 11, as well as some defenses that you might want to avoid. […]


Houston Texans Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Derek Stingley Fantasy Football IDP

D/ST Strength of Schedule Analysis - Fantasy Football Defense/Special Teams Matchups (2024)

Ahh, the good old Defense/Special Teams (DST) position in fantasy football. It is a controversial inclusion in fantasy lineups for some fantasy players, but strategizing around DSTs is one of my favorite aspects of the in-season fantasy football experience. In the article below, I will present the strength of schedule (SOS) for the fantasy Defense/Special […]


Cedric Tillman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 11 (2024)

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 11 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive […]


A.J. Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

Commanders vs. Eagles TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith

After last week's 35-34 edge-of-your-seat matchup between Baltimore and Cincinnati, what can the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles do in Week 11 for some kind of encore for fantasy football managers? This game promises a lot of top-end talent with immense upside, but very little in terms of borderline plays. Will we get an exciting […]


Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS Lineup Picks For FanDuel, DraftKings - Commanders vs. Eagles TNF Showdown (Week 11)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! This will be a solid matchup between two top-tier NFC East teams. The Washington Commanders (7-3) look to bounce back after last week's loss to the Steelers and go on the road to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2). There are only a few injuries that we should keep an eye on; […]


Amon-Ra St. Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 11 Targets and Avoids (2024)

Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do is […]


dawson knox fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start 'Em and Sit 'Em For Week 11

The tight-end position has never been easy to navigate. This year was supposed to be where tight ends returned to glory, with a deep group of players ready to take the position to new heights. Unfortunately, that didn't come to pass, and fantasy managers have been left with one of the more depressing groups in […]


Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 11 Fantasy Football Sleepers - Alexander Mattison, Russell Wilson, Elijah Moore, Jonnu Smith

Zeroing in on the right sleepers each week can be the secret to fantasy football success. Some players come out of nowhere, ready to save your lineup when you least expect it. It could be a quarterback with a soft matchup, a running back stepping in, or a receiver getting extra looks. The challenge? Deciding […]


Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Sneaky Starts, Pivot Plays, and Post-Waiver Pickups for Week 11 - Russell Wilson, Audric Estime, Dawson Knox, and more

There are just four weeks left of the fantasy football regular season. Enjoy it while it lasts because before you know it, it’ll be gone. It also means you have four weeks to get your team into the playoffs. In many of my leagues, the last playoff spot is around .500. In some, a team […]