X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xwOBA Analysis for Week 7

Statcast batter risers and fallers in Week 7 of the 2021 MLB season according to xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average). Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

With many hitters finally passing the 100-plate appearance threshold for 2021, we can begin to dig into expected statistics to see who is underperforming or overachieving. A good place to start is xwOBA, or expected weighted on-base average. For those unfamiliar with the term, BaseballSavant describes it thusly: "xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed." It's a bit complicated but let's just say it uses the whole kitchen sink full of Statcast goodies to determine how efficiently a player is performing and should be reaching base.

You'll find the usual studs near the top, so I'll focus on players that you might not expect to see. As always, don't miss out on the pitching version of this series with a look at xSLG risers/fallers.

All Statcast metrics are current as of May 10, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

 xwOBA Studs

Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins

.450 xwOBA in 80 PA

It's so hard to trust Donaldson based on his age and injury history but Holy Toledo look at those early Statcast numbers:

He Who Brings Forth Precipitation has only gone deep three times but he is hitting the ball harder than ever while practically chopping his strikeout rate in half. Donaldson is usually among the leaders in the power categories but early on in 2021 he is posting career-bests in barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, K%, xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA.

It only took one game before Donaldson hit the injured list, so many fantasy managers were immediately scared off of him. Fading Donaldson has proven to be a mistake so far. There's always the chance of another IL stint, so acquiring him right now is too risky and trying to "sell high" might not provide enough in return. If you have Donaldson, ride his hot bat while you can and hope he doesn't fall victim to the injury bug that seems to be going around in Minnesota.

Carson Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

.447 xwOBA in 97 PA

Just below players like Ronald Acuna Jr., Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto, we have good ol' Carson Kelly ranking seventh in xwOBA among all qualified hitters. He is slashing .324/.474/.606 and continues to be the best hitter in Arizona. Statcast says he's earned every bit of it, as there is only a .006 difference between his wOBA and xwOBA while his xSLG is .051 higher than his SLG. This massive leap in production has come with improved plate discipline and a 19.8 walk rate. This is a complete 180 from last season, when his walk rate fell to 4.7% and his xwOBA was among the worst in baseball at .267.

With nearly 100 plate appearances under his belt, we can no longer scream "small sample!" Kelly tops the 100-PA Rolling xwOBA leaderboard with an increase of .184 tracing back to last season. His presence among the best hitters in the league is off-putting but we may be seeing a legitimate breakout. He is alternating between the top of the lineup and the fifth spot on any given night. It would be nice to see him settle in at the No. 2 position given his OBP. Kelly should be universally rostered and started in all leagues by now.

Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants

.420 xwOBA in 104 PA

Gabe Kapler's offseason training regimen must have been something out of the movie "Cocoon." Longoria is one of several veterans in San Fran experiencing a career revival despite being well past their prime. Buster Posey also fits in this column with his .445 xwOBA that ranks right behind fellow backstop Carson Kelly. For his part, Longoria is posting career-highs in barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk rate, and of course xwOBA. The EV stands out most, especially his 100 MPH exit velo on FB/LD that ranks fourth out of all hitters with at least 50 batted-ball events.

Longo has been scorching since the season started and is riding a five-game hitting streak but it should be noted that he hasn't gone deep since April 13, a span of 49 at-bats. In that time, he's hitting a mere .250 with no homers, six RBI, 10 runs, and, shockingly, no steals. His rolling xwOBA shows a steady dip toward league average.

Don't let season-long stats mislead you - he is hitting well this year but his blazing hot April is masking a mediocre May thus far.

 

xwOBA Duds

Elvis Andrus, Oakland A's

.238 xwOBA in 123 PA

It seems there was indeed a reason the Rangers decided to move on from the 13-year vet. He saw a sharp decline at the plate in a short 2020, slashing .194/.252/.330 with a .255 wOBA. He's proving the doubters right, slashing an even worse .158/.203/.211 with a miserable .175 wOBA.

If Andrus was going to deliver anywhere, it would be with speed. He does have three steals on the season but for someone who's played nearly every day on the team with the sixth-highest rate of SB attempts per game, it should be far more. His defense isn't a strong spot to point toward either, as he ranks in the seventh percentile in Outs Above Average. It can't be long before the A's look elsewhere to hold down the shortstop position.

Evan White, Seattle Mariners

.254 xwOBA in 96 PA

White is one of a trio of M's who reside in the bottom-25 along with Taylor Trammell and Tom Murphy. There was some thought that he might break through in his second big-league season based on a strong hard-hit rate (52.5%) and another year of seasoning to improve his plate discipline. That's not happening. Instead, White is again posting a miserable expected slash line of .193/.244/.297 and is near the bottom of the leaderboard in every major category other than max exit velocity.

White has the pedigree and the opportunity to make for a promising fantasy player but he seems lost at the plate more often than not. While his zone contact has improved five points from last year, it's still six points below league average. The same goes for his 31% Whiff% - better but not nearly enough and Mariners' fans are already getting fed up.


It's amazing that Seattle has a winning record despite five lineup regulars batting below .200 these days. White's job is safe but his role on fantasy rosters is simply a bench stash in AL-only or dynasty leagues until he turns things around.

Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds

.263 xwOBA in 90 PA

Another former first-round pick, India's fast start to the season is to blame for the Eugenio Suarez at shortstop experiment. India forced his way into the lineup and earned the second-base job, starting 23 of the team's 31 games so far. Much like Longoria, however, he faded quickly. After collecting 10 hits in his first six games, India has gone hitless in his past five games, dropping his average to .211 and his xwOBA to .261.

What's worse is that his actual wOBA is nine points higher, so we can't hold our breaths for positive regression. He's played worse on the road in particular and is showing a reverse split against lefties. These are the dips we can expect from young players at times, so to some extent we shouldn't hold it against him too much. On the other hand, India has just one homer and no steals, so without a high average we are getting no value from him. Never known as a power-hitting prospect, the best-case scenario is something akin to Jake Cronenworth. India shouldn't be rostered as of now.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP