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Statcast batter risers and fallers for week 10 of the 2018 MLB season, according to launch angle. Pierre Camus looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.
Besides being a fancy analytics term that baseball broadcasters can spit out on a Sunday afternoon, launch angle plays a big part in determining how other advanced metrics play out, such as HR/FB, FB/LD, and Hard%. Launch angle doesn't dictate how good a player is hitting, but is meant to be more descriptive of the type of hitter he is. Bigger is not necessarily always better for launch angle, as anything above 50 degrees becomes a pop-up and fly balls don't always equate base hits to begin with. In general, you'll see the biggest sluggers near the top of the leaderboard, but as always there are some surprises out there that you might take note of.
Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we've done for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.
Each week, we'll take a look at some key Statcast offensive metrics in order to assess risers and fallers. This time, we'll look at the potential usefulness of home run distance in identifying power risers or fallers.
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Higher Angle = More Power, Right?
If only it were that simple. Without going into too much detail, you do need a high enough angle to lift the ball over the outfield wall, but you also need enough exit velocity. Here's a league-wide comparison of Average Launch Angle for all hitters in conjunction with their HR totals.
There are few batters above the 20° mark and even those aren't all racking up home runs. Exit velocity is just as important. For all the gritty details, simply refer back to Rick Lucks' Statcast Primer for Batters.
Now, let's see who has taken the computers and fantasy owners by surprise early on this season.
Surprising Chart Toppers
All stats current as of June 4, 2018, counting batters with a minimum of 100 Batted Ball Events
Christian Villanueva (3B, SD) - 22.1° Avg. Launch Angle
We got a brief taste of Villanueva's power at the tail end of 2017, when he ripped four homers in his first six starts for the Padres. He simply carried that over to the early part of this year, launching three homers in the second game of the season and 15 over the first two months. His average launch angle is third in the majors, behind only Joey Gallo and Brandon Belt. He is 10th in the league in Barrels/Plate Appearance, ahead of Gary Sanchez, Manny Machado, and Giancarlo Stanton. Simply put: he's for real. To call him a poor man's Joey Gallo isn't fair - he should be able to eke out a batting average around .250, although the R+RBI production could be slightly lower due to a lesser lineup.
Daniel Descalso (1B/2B/3B/OF, ARI) - 21.5° Avg. Launch Angle
Last year, Descalso's launch angle averaged 12.1 degrees. The year before, it was at 10 degrees. It would seem he's making a conscious effort to lift the ball, as his fly ball rate has also jumped 17 points from 2016. It's working, but mainly because he's coupling that with a 41.5% Hard Contact rate. His exit velocity isn't great (89 mph), but it's been good enough to lift him to a career-best .257 ISO. His "success" has been somewhat limited, as seven HR with a .257 average doesn't make him a must-add. Still, his numbers don't appear to be outliers, but rather the continuation of a trend. His multi-position eligibility is enticing enough that we should buy into him as a cheap power option at middle infield.
Leonys Martin (OF, DET) - 19.9° Avg. Launch Angle
It used to be that you only added Martin as a streamer for stolen base potential, not power. It was eye-opening when he jacked 15 homers in 2016 for Seattle, but an injury-riddled 2017 made him fall of the fantasy radar altogether. After launching his seventh homer of the year on June 3, Martin ranks among the launch angle leaders at 12th overall. He now boasts a 52.6% FB% after never previously reaching as much as 40% in a season. It's helped Martin improve his power, but the question remains whether it's better for his overall value. He once stole 36 bases for the Rangers, followed by 31 the next year. This year, he's swiped two bags and been caught three times.
Home run hitters are ever more common, whereas steals are at a premium in today's game. If he could strike the balance to become a 20/20 threat, there would be a legitimate case for him as an OF3 in standard leagues, but alas that is not the case. Martin's position at the top of the order helps him score an adequate amount of runs, but a few homers at the expense of speed sap his overall worth in the fantasy realm.
Other Surprising Leaders in Launch Angle: Eduardo Escobar (20.7°), Francisco Cervilli (19.8°), Kurt Suzuki (18.5°), Wilmer Flores (17.8°), Scott Kingery (17.3°)
Alarming Bottom Dwellers
Eric Hosmer (1B, SD) - 0.3° Avg. Launch Angle
Trust me, I triple-checked the numbers here to verify this was true. Hosmer has six homers and 17 doubles on the year, so it is hard to swallow the fact that his launch angle is practically zero. As proof, here are more fancy charts courtesy of BaseballSavant:
Hosmer simply drives the ball into the ground quite a bit. In fact, he's third among all qualified batters with a 57.2% ground ball rate. Is this cause for panic? Not at all. Other members of the All Worm Burner Club include Nomar Mazara (14 HR, 11 doubles), David Peralta (10 HR, eight doubles), Trey Mancini (seven HR, nine doubles), Trea Turner (seven HR, 11 doubles) and Ian Desmond (10 HR, eight doubles). While some of those players could surely stand to see some of those grounders turn into line drives, it isn't a death knell for fantasy purposes. The best news is that an uptick in launch angle is all that's required.
Hosmer himself has a career 53.6% ground ball rate, yet managed to jack 25 homers each of the last two years. He's hitting .289 this year and finished at .318 last year. When he makes good contact, it's usually going for a hit. Not all players can get away with that batted ball profile, but it clearly works for Hosmer.
Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX) - 4.1° Avg. Launch Angle
Speaking of Mazara, it should be no shock then to see his launch angle numbers so low. This doesn't jive with his 14 long balls that place him just outside the top 10 in all of Major League Baseball, does it? Some numbers that stand out from Mazara's profile, aside from the 55.5% GB%, are an inflated 35% HR/FB and a Soft% that is down to 15.6%. Not an overly speedy player, Mazara has turned several hard grounders into well-placed base hits and is making the most of his home runs, with an average HR distance of 414. He may be getting a touch of luck on some grounders, but the homers are no fluke. Like Hosmer, it appears Mazara is always seeking out hard contact and doesn't need to constantly lift the ball to generate extra base hits because when he squares up a ball, it's a no-doubter. Some power regression is likely, but it would be shocking if Mazara didn't finish with 30+ HR this year.
Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) - 5.2° Avg. Launch Angle
We don't expect Yelich to top the home run leaderboards and we don't need him to either. Yelich is slashing .298/.373/.473 with seven HR, seven SB, and 36 R. He is more valuable in points leagues and 8x8 or 10x10 roto formats, but he is a tremendous all-around asset anywhere. He too knows how to make the most of his power, averaging 407 feet per home run, tying him with sluggers Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion. Astute sabermetricians noticed before the year that his GB/FB ratio has steadily gone down every season; he's currently posting a career-low 51% GB% and career-high 25.5% FB%. While he's still an extreme ground ball hitter, he's growing into his power stroke and should benefit from friendlier dimensions at Miller Park, as opposed to Marlins Park. It was overly optimistic to expect a power explosion from someone who doesn't consciously try to lift the ball, but he is still on pace to surpass his career best 21 home runs this season while contributing OF2 numbers in all other categories.
Other Surprising Stragglers in Launch Angle: Ian Desmond (-1.8°), Joe Mauer (4.6°), Jose Martinez (5.9°), Scott Schebler (6.3°), Shin-Soo Choo (7.1°), Justin Bour (8.5°)
