Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Barrel Rate Analysis for Week 11

June 8, 2021

Statcast batter risers and fallers in Week 11 of the 2021 MLB season according to Barrel rate. Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

Believe it or not, this will be our first foray into barrels this season. Certain statistics take longer to become significant, so it made sense to accumulate more data before digging into barrels.

Those familiar with this series already know that the obvious names like Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Nelson Cruz won't be mentioned. The objective is to highlight unexpected names at the top and bottom of the leaderboard in order to determine if they rightfully belong there or not. We'll use 50 plate appearances as the minimum cut-off.

All Statcast metrics are current as of June 7, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.

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Barrel Rate Studs

Mike Zunino, Tampa Bay Rays

13.2% Brls/PA

Would you believe that Zunino has the fourth-highest barrel rate among all hitters and the second-highest exit velocity on fly balls/line drives in the majors behind only Giancarlo Stanton? He isn't barely clearing the fences, posting an average HR distance of 420 feet. Here are some other ridiculous numbers in his profile after two months: .571 xwoBACON (league average is .363), 117.3 Max EV (6th-highest), and an xISO in the 99th percentile. Oh, he also has a 39.7% K% and .197 batting average.

Zunino has always had thump in his bat, but this season he's making the hardest contact ever despite having the lowest contact rate of his career. The average isn't going to get better and the HR surge is likely temporary, so stream before his power-up expires but don't expect a 30-homer season.

Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers

11.2% Brls/PA

Below Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., Aaron Judge, and Rafael Devers sits Garcia at fifth among qualified batters in Barrels per plate appearance. Garcia is the most prominent late-age breakout of 2021, sitting atop the HR and RBI leaderboard.

He may carry his success through the season, but he's definitely slowing down already. It has been 10 games since his last homer and he has just one RBI in that span. At least his average isn't sinking, so it's not a massive slump so much as a power outage. One thing to look out for is pitchers adjusting. He's been an equal-opportunity masher vs righties and lefties, but he's crushing fastballs and struggling against offspeed pitches. If he starts seeing a bigger diet of change-ups and can't adjust back, reality might sink in. It looks like he's already correcting the problem though.

Garcia has to be held for now. We don't truthfully know what he can do for an extended stretch and he occupies a prime spot in the Rangers' lineup.

Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants

10.1% Brls/PA

What is it with the Giants resurrecting these old players' bats? It's hard to believe Crawford is 34 years old, but he is in his 11th season with San Francisco and it's turning out to be his best offensively. He's not only surpassed last year's HR total in three fewer games, his 12 homers are more than he hit across 147 games in 2019. With a career best of 21 bombs over a full season, Crawford is on pace to obliterate that total thanks to a .550 xSLG that is 140 points above his career average.

He has a pronounced L/R split as expected, with eight of his homers coming against right-handers along with a .308/.303/.590 slash line compared to .149/.212/.404 against lefties. It's unclear why Crawford is suddenly powering up in a year where the ball seems to be traveling less than usual, but we'll focus on the results for now. He's getting stronger as the season goes on, so enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Barrel Rate Duds

DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

2.0% Brls/PA

The Bronx Bombers have fallen short of that reputation in 2021. LeMahieu has especially fallen off from his first season in New York when he went deep 26 times and drove in 102 runs. Was it an outlier? He was certainly not a power hitter before 2019 despite dwelling in Colorado, but a power increase the year before made it seem as if he was simply a late bloomer in terms of strength.

We see a steady trajectory of increasing power and then a sudden cliff. Although his HR/PA rate kept climbing in 2020, his barrel rate had already dropped to its current level. The main culprit is a struggle with offspeed pitches, which seems to correlate strongly with his HR rate throughout his career, at least as far back as Statcast can track.

It's tough to expect LeMahieu to rebound completely in terms of power. Instead, we might need to accept that he will be closer to the Coors version which, paradoxically, means fewer long balls.

Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels

3.3% Brls/PA

Rendon hasn't fundamentally changed who he is. He rarely strikes out, gets quality at-bats, and drives in runs when given the chance. The problem is that Mike Trout isn't on base in front of him anymore and it's not certain how long he'll be out. Aside from that, Rendon has a slight launch angle issue. He's popping the ball up 11.2% of the time, which is never good, and is getting under the ball more than at any point in his career, especially on breaking pitches.

Rendon is the type of player you don't think you need to worry about, but a lower exit velocity coupled with quality of contact issues are a bad combination. As long as Trout is out, pitchers can attack Rendon more aggressively. I wouldn't go so far as to recommend selling on him, but he isn't going to be a top-five 3B option the way things are going.

Eddie Rosario, Cleveland Indians

3.3% Brls/PA

File this one in the category of: fuhgettaboutit. Over the last three full seasons (2017-2019), Rosario hit 27, 24, and 32 HR respectively. He then launched 13 HR in the shortened 2020 season over 210 at-bats. He's about to approach that AB total, but has just four long balls in his first season with Cleveland. Is it the new environment to blame or is Rosario past his prime now that he's nearly 30?

His barrel rate is at the lowest point of his career, but not by much. His 35.8% Hard-Hit% is actually higher than last year and more than his career average of 33.6%. A slight launch angle adjustment is all that's needed for Rosario since he's hitting the ball on the ground like he did earlier in his career. There's nothing else in his profile to suggest he's on the decline. He isn't exactly rocking it at home, slashing .172/.198/.204 in Cleveland with no homers yet. It isn't a offense-oppressing park though. It may just be that Cleveland is an offensively-challenged team this year and Rosario has succumbed to that early on. He should still be viewed as a buy-low candidate at this juncture based on his five-category potential, especially now that he's stealing bases again.

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