Hitter Advanced Metrics Risers and Fallers - Sprint Speed for Week 11

Enough with the hitting stats, let's turn to something a little different this week and measure running. Steals are still an integral part of the fantasy baseball universe but it can be hard to determine who is capable of helping out in that category on a regular basis. That said, I'll provide some analysis on the fastest runners in the league based on their speed and opportunity.

For those unfamiliar with Sprint Speed, it is Statcast’s way to analyze how fast a player runs on average on what it deems "competitive" runs. The technical definition is “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window on individual plays." The Major League average on a competitive play is 27 ft/sec, and the competitive range is roughly from 23 ft/sec (poor) to 30 ft/sec (elite).

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Team SB Attempts Per Game

Before we get to the talent portion of the contest, let us reflect on an equally important part of the equation for stolen bases - opportunity. Some teams just don't run much while others are prone to let runners go wild on the basepaths.

Stats taken from Teamrankings.com

Last year's top two teams in SB attempts, Kansas City and San Diego, have dropped toward the bottom of the list in 2022. That can be attributed to the absences of Adalberto Mondesi and Fernando Tatis Jr. It goes to show that talent often determines offensive context.

Texas, Tampa, St. Louis, Cleveland, Miami, and the Chicago Cubs are all consistently high on the list. The Rangers have a whole new lineup this year and don't have one player who stands out as a pure burner so it clearly ties to team philosophy.

Don Mattingly seemingly gives every player the green light before the season starts and that extends from the top of the order down to the bottom, including catchers. Anyone who steps on the field wearing a Marlins uniform is a threat to steal, which is why Jon Berti has gone from waiver wire fodder to one of the steals leaders in a matter of weeks.

Jon Berti has literally lapped the field in steals the last 30 days pic.twitter.com/i1dPw9jjEV

— Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) June 19, 2022

Meanwhile, don't expect steals anywhere in Minnesota or Boston. Even speedy players like Byron Buxton (28.9 Sprint Speed) and Nick Gordon (28.2 Sprint Speed) have one and three SB, respectively. The Red Sox have one player with more than three steals - Trevor Story with eight.

Bear in mind that speed only speaks to a player's ability but it can be suppressed due to a lesser offense, a low lineup spot, or a conservative manager. Inversely, a player without elite speed can compile steals if he is given ample opportunity. Ideally, you'll find a combination of both such as Myles Straw in Cleveland. It's hard to identify a player like that midseason but we'll do our best.

2022 Sprint Speed Leaders

Jorge Mateo is second in the majors in steals behind only Julio Rodriguez. Consistent playing time has been the key. He earned the starting shortstop job on a (perenially) rebuilding club and accumulated 221 plate appearances already - the most of his MLB career. Don't expect the steals to stop coming. The tradeoff is a batting average that currently sits at .202 but hey, you can't have it all.

Jo Adell has always had the power/speed combo that fantasy managers drool over. A 99th percentile sprint speed and 70-grade raw power. If only it could all come together... Adell is still striking out at a 35% clip and has been a liability defensively. Until that changes, he won't be a fixture in the lineup, especially with Taylor Ward back off the IL.

Derek Hill could be an intriguing name given his skill set and placement on a team that ran a lot last year. When he was called up initially, I briefly thought he could be this year's Akil Baddoo. Sadly, a .270 on-base percentage and 30.4% K% are holding him back. If Hill starts reaching base more frequently, there could be streaming value for those hard up for speed.

Ezequiel Duran is known to be more of a power bat, grading out at 45 Speed on Fangraphs' Prospect Report. Luckily, he's a Ranger so he'll be running more than expected. Duran has already swiped two bags and gone deep twice in 55 at-bats since being called up. He looked good in the Arizona Fall League, slashing .278/.333/.611 but he didn't steal a single base across 19 games. This is one of those sneaky sources of steals that we look forward to during the dog days of summer.

Harrison Bader is up to 15 stolen bases on the year. That ties him with Cedric Mullin and teammate Tommy Edman for fifth in the majors. He will continue to get the chance to run in St. Louis but he's also helped his own cause by improving his plate discipline. His approach has changed quite a bit over the years, in fact. His walk rate keeps dropping but so does his strikeout rate.

His more discerning eye has led to a career-best .271 average. He's not hitting for power much and his exit velocity is pretty low but that's intentional, as his pull rate keeps dropping. It's working for him and could keep him as a valuable fantasy outfielder.

Jeremy Pena is a strong contender for AL Rookie of the Year. His stolen base total won't have much sway in that respect but it helps his fantasy value. Pena's total of six SB isn't overwhelming but it keeps him worthy of being a starting SS on fantasy teams. Curiously, he only has six Bolts on the year, matching his six steals. It seems he only uses those wheels when he really needs them.

Mike Trout showing up on this list is slightly infuriating. Although he still has one of the best sprint speeds around, he just doesn't steal anymore. Get used to it - he hasn't reached double-digit SB since 2019 and has a total of three in the past three seasons.

Jon Berti doesn't belong on waivers anywhere. I don't even care if you're in a four-team league - if it's roto, you need him. He now has an everyday role with Marlins infielders Joey Wendle, Jesus Aguilar, and Brian Anderson sidelined. He could just hold onto that job with the way he's playing lately. Aside from stealing like crazy, Berti is batting a respectable .283 and scoring enough runs to be startable on fantasy rosters.

Chris Morel jumping onto the scene with seven steals in 30 games makes sense now that we see how frequently the Cubs run. He's basically been a better version of Jonathan Villar and could make the veteran utility man expendable by the trade deadline. It would be nice to see Nico Hoerner improve his anemic 2.8% BB% so that he could see more opportunities to run and show off his plus speed.

Michael Harris is starting to flash those tools. He stole his first two Major League bases on June 10 and 11 and has hit three homers in the past week. He is now slashing .321/.346/.538 on the year. For someone with 94th percentile sprint speed, the fact he's only had two SB chances, both coming against Pittsburgh in a two-day span, is disappointing. Don't expect elite stolen base numbers in an offense that doesn't struggle to manufacture runs.

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