Hitter Advanced Metrics Risers and Fallers - Barrel Rate for Week 10

It's finally time to roll out the barrels and there will be Brewers involved! Now that qualified hitters have well over 200 plate appearances under their belts, we can dive into the Statcast numbers to see who is making the biggest splash over the wall.

It goes without saying (but here goes anyway) that you could guess the names at the top of the Barrel Leaderboard without having to look - Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Joc Pederson (!!), Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, etc. There is no analysis needed or actionable advice to give there - start them, don't sell high, no questions asked. Instead, I will look at some of the more surprising names on the early leaderboard to determine their fantasy value a quarter of the way through the 2022 fantasy baseball season.

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2022 Barrel Leaders

Gary Sánchez, Minnesota Twins

Sanchez hits the ball hard, what else is new? He's posted a double-digit Barrel% in every one of his seven MLB seasons. His 50.4% Hard Hit% is the best of his career to this point and 10.6 Barrel/PA is second-best. Now the million-dollar question: what's his batting average?

Sanchez is batting .215 with a .237 xBA so actually kinda good for him. That's actually not too bad for a catcher these days. Only 20 backstops are above the .250 mark and it's about the same as Salvador Perez and it's higher than the man he replaced in Minnesota, Mitch Garver.

The other question is playing time and the answer is glowingly positive - Sanchez is tied for seventh among catchers with 189 PA. Ryan Jeffers is getting his share of time behind the dish with 146 PA but he's somehow got a higher strikeout rate than Sanchez and is providing less power. He'll never be perfect but Sanchez is a decent power source in a good lineup and he's not tanking your batting average like he has in the past and not much at all relative to the competition.

Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers

Adames was coming off a massive hot streak when he hit the IL at the worst possible time in mid-May. He returned a week ago and wasted no time picking up where he left off, hitting two homers in the first five games back including a three-run blast on Sunday.

Demostración del poder de Willy Adames. 💥 #MangúPower pic.twitter.com/xhGGgCwnNm

— MLB Dominicana (@MLBDominicana) June 12, 2022

Despite a slow start to the season where he collected just three extra-base hits in his first 16 games, Adames is among the leaders in barrels (17%), xSLG (.581), and xwoBACON (.502). The power has arrived and it's here to stay, as he seems to enjoy playing in Milwaukee. The downside is that his average is right at the Gallo line (.200). His .255 xBA promises some positive regression but he's elevated his flyball rate since arriving in Brew Town so it would seem that he's intentionally trading average for power. That's not the worst thing in this fantasy climate.

Jake Burger, Chicago White Sox

It looks like this former first-round pick and top prospect is here to stay. He is in the 93rd percentile in Barrels and xSLG, putting together a .277/.326/.515 slash line with eight HR, 23 RBI, and 18 runs in 130 AB. A 29.4% K% isn't ideal but he's maintained a decent average thus far. His 94.1 FB/LD exit velocity isn't impressive, ranking 90th, but Burger is similar to Adames in that he's a flyball hitter who gives himself enough chances to leave the yard.

Burger has moved into the fifth spot of the White Sox lineup, which brings more RBI potential to his game. He's holding down the DH spot most days with Gavin Sheets having been sent down. Once Eloy Jimenez finally returns to the lineup, it might complicate things a bit as he or Andrew Vaughn might see time at DH instead. At this point, it wouldn't be a shock if he simply displaced the struggling Yoan Moncada at third base, though. Burger is still available in 75 percent of Yahoo leagues and that's something that should change soon.

Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels

Ward still sits among the leaders because the only thing that has changed with him in the past couple of weeks is the status of his rehab. That and his manager getting fired. Ward has been on the IL due to a hamstring issue but could be set to return for the Dodgers series midweek.

His scorching start to the season includes a .311 ISO and off-the-charts Statcast numbers all around. Given the interruption in his playing time and the state of the Halos these days, it will be interesting to see if he can maintain his previous pace.

Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves

Ozuna hasn't been too productive lately, batting .189 with no homers and one RBI in nine June games. He's starting to become a drop candidate in shallower leagues and was cut in four percent of Yahoo leagues yesterday alone. That might be a mistake because he's simply a slugger going through a midseason swoon.

On one hand, his Sweet Spot% lies at 25.6% which is the bottom-10 among 264 ranked hitters. It's hard to fathom that a batter who rarely squares up the ball in the range required to barrel it could be among the leaders in Brls/PA. This speaks to his exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, which at 95.6 MPH is among the upper ranks. He doesn't have a lot of close calls in other words, so when he does hit the ball in the sweet spot he gets the most of it. That's why seven of his 10 HR were No Doubters. He still has one of the higher barrel rates in the league and it turns out he's one of the biggest underachievers in xISO-ISO (.95) so there could be more power coming soon.

Hunter Renfroe, Milwaukee Brewers

Renfroe has always had massive power, so seeing him on here isn't a huge surprise. He's flown under the radar since going to Milwaukee, though. Renfroe is another slugger who was sidelined due to a hamstring strain (which must be contagious) but he returned the day before Adames and puts the Brewers closer to full strength, at least on offense. He is just 3-for-24 with a solo home run since coming back from the IL so it's hard to recommend putting him back in fantasy lineups until he gets going again. Renfroe makes a living by crushing the fastball which makes him a decent DFS play against fastball-heavy starters.

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