Statcast Hitter Analysis - xSLG Risers/Fallers (Week 20)

August 13, 2018

Statcast batter risers and fallers for week 20 of the 2018 MLB season, sorted by xSLG-SLG (expected slugging). Pierre Camus looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

We've looked at expected slugging numbers in comparison to actual slugging percentage before, so I'll spare you the full explanation. In this edition, we'll look at the last month's worth of data only to find risers and fallers for possible buy, sell, add or drop possibilities.

Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we do for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.

This week, we'll again look at xSLG - SLG since the beginning of July to see who is outperforming their expected slugging numbers and could be due for negative regression as well as the other side of the coin to find positive regression candidates.

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of Aug. 13, 2018 and display leaders among hitters with at least 50 PA for each split

Mallex Smith (OF, TB) .187 xSLG-SLG since July 1

The word "slugging" rarely appears in conjunction with an article related to Smith, yet here we are. I just advocated for him as a must-add or buy-low based on his stolen base potential alone since moving to the leadoff spot in the lineup, but to see his average at .300 is the kicker here. Smith laced his ninth triple of the season on Friday and followed with a double on Saturday. If he starts producing more than singles alone, he will be more valuable in points leagues, where steals aren't quite as valuable.

Matt Chapman (3B, OAK) .148 xSLG-SLG since July 1

Chapman has seemingly been a buy-low candidate all year since he's underperformed his ADP, but time is running out. Chapman is at 16 home runs and owns a .226 ISO, which are very similar to his rookie numbers, albeit with roughly 100 more plate appearances at this point. Where he's improved the most is plate discipline, namely striking out five percent less, but that's not what we care about. The big news is that his hard hit rate is at 44.3%, up eight points from his rookie year, and his line drive rate went from a lowly 16% up to 22.1% this season. Although his 0.98 GB/FB has ballooned because those line drives are taking away from his fly ball rate, this is good in the long run for his batting average and, believe it or not, his slugging numbers. Long fly ball outs don't help, after all, whereas doubles and sharp singles do. Chapman might not be a 30-HR guy in the near term, but he is a solid corner infielder who is learning to play A's baseball rather than simply swing for the fences.

Nick Ahmed (SS, ARI) .110 xSLG-SLG since July 1

Where did this Nick Ahmed come from? For a guy who had never reached double-digit homers in his professional or minor league career, 16 HR is a pleasant surprise to say the least. Of course, he completely sacrificed all his speed from those MiLB days, but the D-Backs aren't known for their prowess on the basepaths. Ahmed's hot start to the season, particularly the first week, quickly faded over the next couple of months, but he was scorching in July and wound up driving in 20 runs. If you're concerned about the power being fluky, don't be, as it appears to be a matter of prime age development instead. Ahmed's 15.8% HR/FB isn't much higher than last year's 14.6% rate and his Hard% numbers have gone up for four straight seasons, now at 39.7%. He won't be the next Francisco Lindor, but Ahmed could be a 20-HR middle infielder for the next couple of seasons.

Yoan Moncada (2B, CHW) .094 xSLG-SLG since July 1

It's been a mostly busty season for the top prospect, whose average sits at .220 with a 35% strikeout rate. Moncada has gone 15/11 to help roto owners, but that's not enough to offset the disappointing stats everywhere else. If you were hoping for a second-half surge or took a chance on him before your league's trade deadline, you may be cringing at his .139 average since the break. The good news is that his xSLG shows some hope for an uptick in production, while his .318 BABIP proves that he could be a really good hitter if he didn't swing and miss so damn much. Also, his 46.9% O-Contact% is a full 20 points below league average, even though he swings at pitches outside the zone less than most hitters. He'll need to expand his hitting zone to more hittable pitches while taking fewer strikes in the zone, which is a bit of reverse thinking for an impressionable young slugger. Developing a better eye will take time, so don't wait for the light bulb to turn on any time soon.

Other notable chart-toppers: Jonathan Schoop (2B, MIL) .102 xSLG-SLG, Johan Camargo (2B/3B, ATL) .091 xSLG-SLG, Steven Duggar (OF, SF) .080 xSLG-SLG, Ronald Guzman (1B, TEX) .080 xSLG-SLG

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

Kendrys Morales (1B, TOR) -.199 xSLG-SLG since July 1

His plate discipline was back to 2016 levels, his walk rate is the best of his career, he's hitting the ball harder and in the air more often. So what gives? Morales was on point in July, batting .338 and posting a 15/13 BB/K rate, but the power numbers weren't there with just four homers and 10 RBI and now he's swooning in August. His exit velocity and launch angle are consistent with his four-year average while his hard hit rate is even higher, so it's curious that the production isn't there. Morales no longer appears to be a huge power threat, so even an uptick in slugging to match expected numbers isn't enough to make him worth relying on at this point in the season.

Nicholas Castellanos (3B/OF, DET) -.139 xSLG-SLG since July 1

Throughout the first half, he delivered on last year's promising peripherals as one of baseball's hard-hit leaders. This was especially impressive without any lineup support from the likes of Miguel Cabrera. It's been a rough go since July as he's delivered 10 extra-base hits in the last 125 at-bats with a .216 average. It could be fatigue or simply a bad stretch, but his recent foot bruise won't help things. As a 26-year old former top prospect who's been quietly tearing the cover off the ball for over a year now, it's best to err on the side of talent and bet that he comes back strong to finish this season.

Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS) -.137 xSLG-SLG since July 1

The Red Sox parted with Hanley Ramirez because they had faith that Moreland could handle the first base job full-time. He hasn't shown any negative splits toward lefties, but he also hasn't provided as much power as expected and the career year that many projected hasn't come to fruition. In fact, Moreland has just three HR in the past six weeks and may not reach the 20-homer mark. His slugging percentage is a healthy .477, partly on the strength of four triples, which are one more than his career total entering 2018. Go figure. His doubles numbers are down from last year and his .261 average is nothing to write home about, so it's not as if he's a massive help in points leagues. Moreland is nothing more than bench depth and can't really be used as a strong daily play against righties due to his balanced profile.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, STL) -.117 xSLG-SLG since July 1

We know it's been a struggle for Ozuna to generate anything close to last year's All-Star numbers in Miami, but there was always the hope that he'd find a comfort zone. A new manager could do the trick. Shaking up the lineup might work. Maybe the break will do him some good. Not really. The truth is that Ozuna hasn't been bad all year, he just hasn't been last year's version. That might not ever happen again, especially since Ozuna himself admitted he felt at home with his former team and has found himself pressing to fit in and earn his huge contract in St. Louis. Sounds very Dexter Fowleresque, no? Last season, Ozuna enjoyed a superb .548 SLG and 23.4% HR/FB. According to Statcast, his exit velocity is actually up a bit to 91.3 and his hard hit rate is only down by two points (although Fangraphs has it as six points higher this season). The bottom line is that he isn't underperforming as much as we think, but he may never again perform as well as we expect.

Other notable bottom-dwellers: Joe Mauer (1B, MIN) -.153 xSLG-SLG, Jed Lowrie (2B/SS, OAK) -.132 xSLG-SLG, Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) -.128 xSLG-SLG, Kyle Schwarber (OF, CHC) -.117 xSLG-SLG

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