Starting Pitchers With Bad Fastballs to Avoid for Fantasy Baseball Drafts (2024)

March 7, 2024

Thunder Dan Palyo takes a look at several fantasy baseball starting pitchers who could struggle in 2024 due to having a bad fastball. Could these pitchers still offer any fantasy value?

There's one pitch that every pitcher in baseball throws -- and that's a fastball. Some are faster than others, and some pitchers throw their fastball far more often than others. But unless you're a relief pitcher (and we are talking starters here), you can't get away from throwing a fastball to set up the rest of the pitches in your arsenal.

So in this piece, we are looking for starting pitchers who had "bad fastballs" in 2023. That doesn't have anything to do with their velocity, but has a lot to do with their command, lack of movement, or even just how they were used situationally (for example, if a pitcher always defaults to their fastball when down 2-0 in the count).

Last year, my buddy Eric Samulski wrote a similar piece and I thought it was a good idea that he used three different metrics to come up with his list. So I will be following suit and using the same measurements in this article. They are -- FanGraphs' "pitch value" (PV) for 4-seam fastballs, Statcast's "run values" (RV) for 4-seamers, and Eno Sarris' Pitching+ metric for 4-seamers (also found on FanGraphs). Now, let's see who tops the list of bad fastballs from last season.

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Pitcher Fastball Stats

The table below features the 15 pitchers whose fastballs ranked the lowest on those three metrics. For reference, 0 is the baseline (average) for both PV and RV, while 100 is the average for Pitching+. The color coding helps a little, I hope, as the darker the red -- the worse the pitch was.

We don't need to review every pitcher on this list, as I highly doubt you were targeting Chris Flexen, Austin Gomber, Patrick Corbin, Luke Weaver, or Joey Wentz in your drafts this year. But let's focus on some of the bigger names and more relevant fantasy baseball players instead.

Just for comparison, here's a list of the pitchers with some of the best-rated fastballs using Statcast run values. These are pitchers who can often get away with leaving fastballs in the middle of the zone due to their velocity or movement (Cole) or have pinpoint control with their 4-seamer (Gallen) and are less dependent on offspeed pitches or breaking balls to generate whiffs.

1. Gerrit Cole (+29)
2. Zac Gallen (+27)
3. Luis Castillo (+19)
4. Zack Wheeler (+17)
5. Kevin Gausman (+16)
6. Jesus Luzardo (+16)
7. Justin Steele (+15)
8. George Kirby (+14)
9. Joe Ryan (+13)
10. Freddy Peralta (+12)

Charlie Morton - Atlanta Braves

I have enjoyed watching Charlie Morton pitch tremendously during his incredibly long and productive career. I still remember when he was a ground ball pitcher who only threw his fastball in the low 90s while in Pittsburgh. While he was effective, he didn't transform into a dominant pitcher until he went to Houston and then Tampa Bay, where he became a power pitcher with a 95+ mph fastball and devastating curveball.

At 40 years old, he's set to take the mound for his fourth season with Atlanta and has been incredibly reliable, making 30+ starts in three straight seasons for the Braves. His average fastball velocity held steady right around 95 mph and he threw it 32% of the time. His curveball was rated as the best in baseball, according to FanGraphs PV, and he used it 43% of the time.

Morton's fastball had only a 9.6% SwStr%, which isn't far from where it was in 2022 (9.9%), but it was up around 12-13% during his days in Tampa. His velocity and spin rates haven't changed much, but he has lost vertical movement on his fastball now for three consecutive years -- meaning it's flattening out and getting easier for hitters to make quality contact with. What is impressive, however, is the 18.9% CSW on the 4-seamer last year, which shows us that he can still locate his fastball effectively and the difference in velocity from his curveball (82 mph) keeps hitters off guard.

I do have Morton circled as a pitcher not to draft too early this season, but it's not really because of his fastball, which was "bad" by the same metrics in 2022 and he still had a solid season. My concerns have more to do with his increased walk rate and the amount of innings on his 40-year-old arm.

Jon Gray - Texas Rangers

Jon Gray is coming off a World Series title in Texas, but he saw an uptick in his ERA, WHIP, and BB% in his second season with the Rangers while also seeing his K% drop a full 4.1% to just 21.6% (which happens to be the exact league average). So, how can a pitcher with a fastball that sits around 96 mph and a vicious 87 mph slider only finish with an average K rate and an ERA over 4?

Gray's fastball got hit hard. The good news was that he kept a lot of that contact on the ground (48% GB%), but the fastball did allow a .346 batting average and a massive 24.5% HR/FB%. The spin rate on his four-seamer was only in the 5th percentile and he has below-average vertical movement on the pitch with very little horizontal movement, too.

Gray threw his four-seamer just 42% of the time last year, the lowest percentage of his career, and went back to his gyro slider as his main breaking ball instead of the sweeper. Like Morton, Gray has an elite second pitch in his slider as it rated as the top slider among starters who threw at least 100 innings last season in FanGraphs PV.

As a pitcher who now has five pitches, he doesn't have to rely on his fastball as much, and therefore the fact that it was such a bad pitch matters a bit less than with other pitchers who throw their fastballs more often. His ADP is way down at 324 and I don't have an issue with drafting Gray this late. If he stays healthy for the entire year, he could eat plenty of innings and provide some wins with that powerful Texas offense behind him.

Hunter Greene - Cincinnati Reds

This is going to be the most controversial player on the list as the opinions of many smart baseball people are split on whether or not we see a breakout from the talented young Reds hurler this season. I am not going to tell you not to draft Greene, because, with a few adjustments, he has all the talent to become an elite major-league pitcher. But he still seems very much like a work in progress to me. I think we have to acknowledge that at age 24, with only 237 innings in the majors under his belt, he has a lot of work yet to do.

Greene had an incredible finish to his rookie season down the stretch that had many of us (myself included) excited about a breakout last season. However, he made just 22 starts while dealing with an injury that kept him out for two months and struggled with run prevention, finishing with a 4.82 ERA. The good news is that his ERA indicators suggested he should have been better and he posted a 30% strikeout rate for the second straight season. He did, however, allow 19 home runs and now has given up 43 long balls over his first two seasons.

One of the biggest criticisms of Greene thus far is that he lacks a third pitch to keep hitters off balance and from being able to lock in on his fastball and slider. He has reportedly been working on a curveball and/or a splitter as a potential third pitch, which would certainly help. But my biggest concern would be his command and his ability to locate all three (or four) pitches consistently.

Pitch Repertoire Update! ⚾️‼️🔊 Hunter Greene (CIN) has swapped out his changeup for a splitter this spring AND added a curveball, so his repertoire is now FF / FS / SL / CUhttps://t.co/AGv9of4w2o

— MLBPitchClass (@MLBPitchClass) March 4, 2024

Not many guys have an average fastball velocity of 98 mph, but Greene had just a 48.2% Zone% last season. And while his 13.2 SwStr% is well above average for a fastball, his CS% (called strike percentage) was only 14.2% and among one of the worst among qualifying starters.

In layman's terms, he's getting swings and misses on his fastball, but not nearly enough called strikes because he hasn't been able to control it well enough. And with only two speeds for hitters to worry about (98 mph fastball and 87 mph changeup), he's not catching guys looking for offspeed pitches with that fastball, as hitters are sitting dead red on the fastball and adjusting to the slider.

For now, I will wait and see on Greene. He comes with an ADP of 154 and our RotoBaller rankings agree that's 20-30 picks too high for a pitcher that carries as much risk as he does reward.

Conclusion

As for the rest of the guys on my chart...JP Sears is probably the only guy that I would consider drafting this year as he has a really solid sweeper and a plus changeup to accompany his 93 mph fastball. His fastball also rated much higher in Pitching + and Statcast values than the FanGraphs rating, which could have been a bit of an outlier. He's looked great this spring and could be ready to round into form this year.

At the same time, Miles Mikolas was another guy who rated much better in two of the three metrics and I have no interest in drafting him whatsoever. In the interest of being as inclusive as possible without writing a 10,000-word article, here are a few other "bad fastballs" that didn't quite make the cut for the graphic up above. They are mainly guys who had a poor rating in one of the metrics, but not across the board.

• Connor Seabold: -19 RV
• Kyle Muller: -18 RV
• Luis Severino: -14 RV
• Ryan Weathers: -11 RV
• Patrick Sandoval: -11 RV
• Tommy Henry: 83 P+
• Josiah Gray: 84 P+
• Dane Dunning: 84 P+
• Anthony DeSclafani: 84 P+
• Carlos Carrasco: -18 PV
• Brady Singer: -17 PV

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