RADIO
As owners prepare for draft day, one strategy many owners will use is drafting pitchers who are returning from significant injuries. These pitchers will likely be undervalued because of their injuries, and if they can return to their pre-injury norm they can end up being a steal in a draft.
For the following starters working back from injury, there's no guarantee that they will perform the same as they did the last time they were on the mound. They have just as a good of a chance of ending up as busts as they do of becoming draft day steals.
That being said, these four pitchers are worth looking at late in drafts because of the potential they have previously displayed.
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All Clear! Pitchers Looking to Bounce Back
RHP Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals - ADP 256
After making his major league debut in 2016, Reyes was set to become one of the key pieces in the Cardinals rotation in 2017 when he tore a ligament in his throwing elbow, requiring him to undergo Tommy John surgery before Spring Training had even begun. What owners are hoping for in 2018 is that Reyes will be able to return to his elite strikeout levels that he had consistently shown in the majors and minors. Over four seasons in the minors, Reyes accumulated an astonishing 12.1 K/9 rate, and once he hit the majors he put up a "career-worst" of only 10.2 K/9. Looking at his advanced numbers, Reyes had an 11.5 swinging strike percentage and a 74.6 percent contact percentage — both of which were better than the league averages in each of the last three seasons.
Reyes is on track to come off the disabled list around the beginning of May, and assuming he makes a few rehab starts in the minors he could be back in St. Louis by the beginning of June. If owners take a chance on Reyes and stash him on their roster for the first two months, they could be paid huge dividends when Reyes returns to action.
RHP Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers - ADP 312
Before tearing his labrum last September, Nelson was having the best season of his five-year career. He set career-bests with a 3.49 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 — shattering his previous career-best of 7.5 K/9. On top of that, he was missing bats at a high rate compared to the rest of his career, as his 11.4 swinging strike percentage and 76.4 contact percentage were both career-bests.
The biggest concern for Nelson heading into 2018 is how he will bounce back from the shoulder injury. Unlike Tommy John surgery where pitchers tend to recover favorably, labrum surgery does not have as high a rate of successful return to form. A 2016 study in the Orthopedic Journal of Sports Medicine showed that in a sample group of 24 pitchers, 15 were able to recover and pitch again and of those 15, 13 were able to return to their previously established level of performance. As of now, Nelson is looking at a return to the mound sometime around mid-to-late June. If he is able to recover fully, he has a good chance of returning to form, and if he does that he can provide a solid boost in the second half of the season for fantasy teams.
LHP Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox - ADP 367
Following the trend of this list, Rodon was also having things click into place and putting up the best numbers of his career when he began dealing with a shoulder injury that eventually led to arthroscopic surgery in September. He was averaging over six strikeouts per start with a career-best 9.9 K/9 while posting a career-low 1.370 WHIP. Rodon was able to do all of this despite missing the first three months of the season with a biceps injury.
Rodon's pitching percentages also show promise that he could repeat his 2017 performance once he is healthy. Batters were making less contact on pitches in the strike zone against Rodon, as his 82 z-contact percentage was a career-best for him. Rodon also had a career-high 56.2 first-pitch strike percentage, and he saw a slight bump in his swinging strike percentage to set a new career-best at 10.3 percent.
The current timetable has Rodon returning some time around May or June, and unlike Nelson's shoulder surgery, he is more likely to not have any issues performance-wise coming off this procedure. Rodon will be 25 this season — making him the second youngest pitcher on this list behind Reyes — and pre-surgery he was trending upwards in value. That potential makes Rodon worth owning and stashing in a DL spot until his return to the mound.
RHP Nathan Karns, Kansas City Royals - ADP 469
Karns is a player that you probably shouldn't draft in standard mixed-leagues. But that doesn't mean you should ignore him. In eight starts last season before undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, Karns had a 4.17 ERA, and his 4.48 FIP suggests he was pitching slightly worse than the defense behind him showed. What Karns was doing though that merits watching is he showed improved command on the mound. He drastically cut down on his walks, posting a career-best 2.6 BB/9, and increased his strikeouts with a 10.1 K/9 rate. It was his second straight season where he increased his K/9 rate, and it was the first time since 2013 in the minors where he posted a double-digit K/9 rate.
Although Karns is the oldest pitcher on this list entering his age 30 season, all of his advanced metrics point to him having turned a page in his career. He posted career-bests with a 31.1 o-swing percentage, 58 first pitch strike percentage and 12.5 swinging strike percentage. Along with that, batters struggled to make contact against Karns, as he posted career-lows with a 53.4 o-contact percentage and 84.7 z-contact percentage.
Karns is the closest of these four pitchers to returning to the mound with an expected return of potentially Opening Day. He is worth looking at as a very late round flier, but owners might want to wait a couple weeks until after he's made a few starts to see how he does. This is a guy who will likely fly under many people's radar, so owners can afford to wait and see if he can repeat his performance, but they shouldn't wait too long lest he get snatched up by someone else.
All four of these pitchers carry some amount of risk with them. They may end up never returning to the level that they were at pre-injury. But it is worth the risk to roster them and see if they can catch that magic once again.
