X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

On the Rebound - Starters Coming Back from Injury in 2018

Starting pitchers looking to rebound from injury in 2018. Michael Grennell looks at starters (SP) who could be undervalued in fantasy baseball leagues.

As owners prepare for draft day, one strategy many owners will use is drafting pitchers who are returning from significant injuries. These pitchers will likely be undervalued because of their injuries, and if they can return to their pre-injury norm they can end up being a steal in a draft.

For the following starters working back from injury, there's no guarantee that they will perform the same as they did the last time they were on the mound. They have just as a good of a chance of ending up as busts as they do of becoming draft day steals.

That being said, these four pitchers are worth looking at late in drafts because of the potential they have previously displayed.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

All Clear! Pitchers Looking to Bounce Back

RHP Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals - ADP 256

After making his major league debut in 2016, Reyes was set to become one of the key pieces in the Cardinals rotation in 2017 when he tore a ligament in his throwing elbow, requiring him to undergo Tommy John surgery before Spring Training had even begun. What owners are hoping for in 2018 is that Reyes will be able to return to his elite strikeout levels that he had consistently shown in the majors and minors. Over four seasons in the minors, Reyes accumulated an astonishing 12.1 K/9 rate, and once he hit the majors he put up a "career-worst" of only 10.2 K/9. Looking at his advanced numbers, Reyes had an 11.5 swinging strike percentage and a 74.6 percent contact percentage — both of which were better than the league averages in each of the last three seasons.

Reyes is on track to come off the disabled list around the beginning of May, and assuming he makes a few rehab starts in the minors he could be back in St. Louis by the beginning of June. If owners take a chance on Reyes and stash him on their roster for the first two months, they could be paid huge dividends when Reyes returns to action.

 

RHP Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers - ADP 312

Before tearing his labrum last September, Nelson was having the best season of his five-year career. He set career-bests with a 3.49 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 — shattering his previous career-best of 7.5 K/9. On top of that, he was missing bats at a high rate compared to the rest of his career, as his 11.4 swinging strike percentage and 76.4 contact percentage were both career-bests.

The biggest concern for Nelson heading into 2018 is how he will bounce back from the shoulder injury. Unlike Tommy John surgery where pitchers tend to recover favorably, labrum surgery does not have as high a rate of successful return to form. A 2016 study in the Orthopedic Journal of Sports Medicine showed that in a sample group of 24 pitchers, 15 were able to recover and pitch again and of those 15, 13 were able to return to their previously established level of performance. As of now, Nelson is looking at a return to the mound sometime around mid-to-late June. If he is able to recover fully, he has a good chance of returning to form, and if he does that he can provide a solid boost in the second half of the season for fantasy teams.

 

LHP Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox - ADP 367

Following the trend of this list, Rodon was also having things click into place and putting up the best numbers of his career when he began dealing with a shoulder injury that eventually led to arthroscopic surgery in September. He was averaging over six strikeouts per start with a career-best 9.9 K/9 while posting a career-low 1.370 WHIP. Rodon was able to do all of this despite missing the first three months of the season with a biceps injury.

Rodon's pitching percentages also show promise that he could repeat his 2017 performance once he is healthy. Batters were making less contact on pitches in the strike zone against Rodon, as his 82 z-contact percentage was a career-best for him. Rodon also had a career-high 56.2 first-pitch strike percentage, and he saw a slight bump in his swinging strike percentage to set a new career-best at 10.3 percent.

The current timetable has Rodon returning some time around May or June, and unlike Nelson's shoulder surgery, he is more likely to not have any issues performance-wise coming off this procedure. Rodon will be 25 this season — making him the second youngest pitcher on this list behind Reyes — and pre-surgery he was trending upwards in value. That potential makes Rodon worth owning and stashing in a DL spot until his return to the mound.

 

RHP Nathan Karns, Kansas City Royals - ADP 469

Karns is a player that you probably shouldn't draft in standard mixed-leagues. But that doesn't mean you should ignore him. In eight starts last season before undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, Karns had a 4.17 ERA, and his 4.48 FIP suggests he was pitching slightly worse than the defense behind him showed. What Karns was doing though that merits watching is he showed improved command on the mound. He drastically cut down on his walks, posting a career-best 2.6 BB/9, and increased his strikeouts with a 10.1 K/9 rate. It was his second straight season where he increased his K/9 rate, and it was the first time since 2013 in the minors where he posted a double-digit K/9 rate.

Although Karns is the oldest pitcher on this list entering his age 30 season, all of his advanced metrics point to him having turned a page in his career. He posted career-bests with a 31.1 o-swing percentage, 58 first pitch strike percentage and 12.5 swinging strike percentage. Along with that, batters struggled to make contact against Karns, as he posted career-lows with a 53.4 o-contact percentage and 84.7 z-contact percentage.

Karns is the closest of these four pitchers to returning to the mound with an expected return of potentially Opening Day. He is worth looking at as a very late round flier, but owners might want to wait a couple weeks until after he's made a few starts to see how he does. This is a guy who will likely fly under many people's radar, so owners can afford to wait and see if he can repeat his performance, but they shouldn't wait too long lest he get snatched up by someone else.

All four of these pitchers carry some amount of risk with them. They may end up never returning to the level that they were at pre-injury. But it is worth the risk to roster them and see if they can catch that magic once again.

 

More Sleepers and Undervalued Players




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF