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Brian Rudd evaluates four starting pitchers (SP) who switched teams in the 2021 MLB preseason to determine their fantasy baseball draft value.
It has been a slow off-season to this point, but we're starting to see some moves made, in the form of both free-agent signings and trades going down. There will be plenty of more action over the next several weeks, as there are still a lot of unsigned free agents, and no shortage of trade rumors buzzing.
While a pitcher's skills are the primary driver for determining their fantasy value, the team they are pitching for can also play a large role. The most obvious reason for this is the ballpark, which is obviously a huge factor. However, the coaching philosophy, defense behind them, and offensive support they are likely to get can also add to or subtract from a pitcher's appeal.
In this column, we'll take a look at a few starting pitchers who have already changed teams this off-season. We'll take a quick look at how their 2020 season went, and what the new team and ballpark will mean for their potential value during the 2021 season.
Carlos Carrasco, New York Mets
Carlos Carrasco was recently part of the big deal between the Indians and Mets in which he and teammate Francisco Lindor landed in Queens. He is coming off a 2020 season in which he posted a 2.91 ERA across 12 starts, and joins ace Jacob deGrom atop the Mets' rotation.
Carrasco did benefit from a soft schedule in 2020, as half of his starts came against the Royals, Pirates, and Tigers, all of whom finished in the bottom 10 in runs scored on the year. But he has a long track record of strong skills, and has recorded an ERA of 3.63 or lower in six of the past seven seasons.
Carrasco can miss bats with a variety of pitches. While he didn't generate quite as many whiffs as usual with his slider in 2020, he still got a healthy dose of them. Meanwhile, as you can see below he got more than ever before with both his four-seam fastball and changeup.
Those three offerings have made up at least 83% of Carrasco's arsenal in each of the past two seasons. His success with all three pitches bodes well for plenty of more strikeouts in his future.
Now Carrasco moves from one of the top offensive parks in the league to one that plays heavily in favor of pitchers. His new team did have trouble turning balls in play into outs in 2020, ranking 27th in the league in that regard, while the Indians had finished 11th. However, the addition of Lindor to the infield should help improve the team's defense, as will removing Robinson Cano from the second base equation.
Add it all up along with the switch to the new ballpark with a better offense supporting him and it's more than enough to make up for the concerns listed above. He has been the 23rd starting pitcher off the board in NFBC Draft Champions leagues since the beginning of December, at pick 64 overall. Odds are, that price will go up a bit following this trade, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him pushing the top 50 by the time March drafts are upon us.
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves
Charlie Morton had a disappointing 2020 campaign by his standards, as he ended the short season with a 4.74 ERA across nine starts. After the Rays declined his $15 million option for 2021, he hit the free-agent market and ended up signing an identical deal with the Braves.
Taking a closer look at Morton's 2020 season, he got off to a really rough start, when his fastball velocity was down a couple of ticks. But throw out his first start, a 4 IP, 6 ER disaster, and he put up a 3.71 ERA with a 38:9 K:BB. Morton then followed that up with a postseason in which he recorded a 2.70 ERA and 23:5 K:BB in 20 innings.
All told, Morton's skills are holding up quite well. His 12.1% SwStr% in 2020 was a small step back from his career-best 2019 mark (12.9%), but still right in line with expectations since his 2016 resurgence. He still got a healthy dose of swings and misses on both his four-seamer and curve, recording whiff rates of 12.8% and 16.7%, respectively, according to Brooks Baseball, on the two offerings he relied on the most.
Morton did give up a little more hard contact than usual in 2020, as his Barrel % and average exit velocity were the highest of his career, and his xSLG against was his highest since 2015.
A move to a slightly more hitter-friendly park, though still one that favors pitching, may lead to a few more homers allowed, especially if Morton's career-high 34% fly-ball rate sticks. Even so, the 37-year-old really isn't showing many signs of slowing down and should have at least one more really strong season left in the tank. With an NFBC Draft Champions ADP of 118 since December 1, Morton looks like a rock-solid investment at a reasonable price.
Michael Wacha, Tampa Bay Rays
Michael Wacha hasn't been fantasy relevant for some time now. He pitched a total of 160 2/3 innings over the past two seasons, during which time he posted an ugly 5.15 ERA, and he owns a 4.53 mark during the past five seasons combined. But even in 2020, the worst statistical season of his career, the right-hander showed a few positive signs.
Wacha's fastball velocity and whiff percentage on the pitch slipped to career lows in 2019, but he rebounded to some extent in 2020. He also recorded his highest SwStr% and K% since 2013, as he relied more heavily on his changeup, a pitch that induced whiffs at a 22 percent clip.
Furthermore, while it was a small sample, Wacha did an excellent job of limiting the free passes, walking just seven batters in his 34 innings of work. The end result was the highest K-BB% of his career at 19.2%, well above the league average of 14.3%.
Now Wacha finds himself in Tampa, after signing a one-year, $3 million contract in December. That means he will have a much better defense behind him than he did with the Mets, where he was hurt by an inflated .366 BABIP.
Wacha topped five innings just once in his eight outings a season ago, and shouldn't be expected to work especially deep into games. Tampa is known for frequently using openers, though, and it's not too hard to envision such a scenario for Wacha, where he wouldn't have to last a full five frames in order to qualify for a win. With a Draft Champions ADP of 553 since the beginning of December, Wacha has some appeal as a late-round target, even if he doesn't seem to offer a great deal of upside.
Drew Smyly, Atlanta Braves
Like Morton, Drew Smyly also landed in Atlanta, where he inked a one-year, $11 million deal. He was limited to just seven appearances (five starts) with the Giants in 2020 after missing time with a strained finger, but his results when on the mound were quite impressive. The left-hander added 2.6 MPH to his fastball velocity from his 2019 campaign and whiffed 37.8% of batters faced while walking 8.0% of opposing hitters.
While the sample was certainly small, Smyly's K-BB% of 29.7% put him in rare company, as he ranked behind only Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, and Trevor Bauer. This was quite the leap from his 12.6% mark from 2019, and he also dramatically improved his ERA, from 6.24 down to 3.42.
But digging a little deeper, we can see that Smyly's return to form after two Tommy John surgeries started late in 2019, following his trade to Philadelphia. After posting an 8.42 ERA with 7.2% K-BB% in 13 outings (nine starts) with Texas, he turned in a 4.45 ERA and 17.9% K-BB% in 12 starts with the Phillies. The velocity wasn't all the way up to his 2020, but did go up a tick following the move. If you combine his stats in Philadelphia with his 2020 numbers, he has a 4.15 ERA, 29.7% K%, and 21.4% K-BB% across 17 starts.
Smyly's new home park is pretty neutral in most regards, which is a downgrade from where he pitched his home games a season ago. But note that he made just three appearances at AT&T in 2020, and had a higher K% in his road outings. One thing Smyly will have going for him is a better offense behind him. The Giants did finish last season 8th in runs scored but were 49 off the pace (0.82 per game) of the second-place Braves.
Honestly, it's not the park or the offense behind Smyly that is going to play a huge role in determining his value. Instead, it will be how much of the velocity gains stick, something worth monitoring this spring, and how long the oft-injured pitcher can remain healthy. The latter is impossible to know, but he's an intriguing mid-round target now, and one that will move up draft boards if he's sitting 94 in March.
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