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Matt Garon discusses starting pitchers returning from season-long injury such as Jack Flaherty, Lance Lynn, and Shane Baz, to determine whether these SP should be held or sold in fantasy baseball.
Over the last couple of weeks, we have seen the returns of some big-name starting pitchers that fantasy baseball managers have been stashing all year. Lance Lynn, Jack Flaherty, and Shane Baz have all come back from lengthy IL stints.
While there was a considerable amount of excitement for these returns, the results haven’t quite lived up to the hype. Each of them has had their struggles, but what should you do with them now? Do you sit them? Is this the level they are likely to remain at? Should you be looking to sell based on name value?
Let’s dig a little deeper into each of them and find out.
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Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox
Lynn has been a top-tier starter for a long time now, going back to the latter half of 2018 when he was traded to New York and made an adjustment to become more of a strikeout pitcher and less of a pitch-to-contact guy. The change has made Lynn one of the best fantasy pitchers over the last few years, and he’s seemingly only gotten better as he’s managed to reduce hard contact against him while keeping a steady strikeout and walk rate, resulting in an xERA that has lowered in each of the last three seasons coming into 2022.
Here are his tremendous improvements in all their glory:
All the underlying numbers support his fantasy success and had he not gotten injured, he would’ve been a top-20 pitcher at worst coming into the season. That’s the upside, and Lynn sure has a lot of it. But, of course, there’s also the downside.
Although Lynn has continued his upward trend in recent years, he’s not exactly a spring chicken. At 35, he is likely to start regressing naturally pretty soon. Exacerbating that is his recent injury history, the latest of which was a slight tear in a tendon in his right knee that has kept him out for the first two months of the season. This also includes two trips to the IL in 2021, one of which was due to inflammation to the same knee that he hurt this spring. Because of the nature of tendon injuries, they could very easily flare up again or cause performance issues.
Speaking of performance issues, Lynn’s rehab assignment didn’t go very well for him. In 10 innings, he allowed 15 hits and 10 runs. Now, this is just a short stint that was meant to build Lynn up to pitch at an MLB level, so we shouldn’t take too much from this. It is notable, though, especially considering how his first start went right after the rehab assignment.
The circumstances around Lynn’s first start couldn’t have been better, as he matched up against the league's worst offense in the Detroit Tigers. Fantasy managers were pumped up for this one, but… it didn’t quite work out. Lynn got hit hard, allowing 10 hits and three runs over just four and one-third innings. These were mostly singles, yes, but Lynn didn’t exactly get unlucky. He had a .369 xBA against and an xERA of 6.17 in the start.
His second start went a little bit better, and it was against a good Toronto Blue Jays offense. He managed a 31% whiff rate and was looking solid until the sixth inning, where he gave up three runs. That being said, he was hit pretty hard throughout the contest and was a bit lucky to only give up four hits. This start could’ve easily gone the same way as his first if the balls dropped in as they did in that start.
Another worrying sign has been Lynn’s velocity, which was down 1.4 mph on his fastball in both starts. His velocity has actually been closely aligned with his pre-2018 breakout, and if he can’t get that velocity back, we could end up seeing similar results to his early years. This would be less than ideal and significantly drop Lynn’s stock.
So how much weight do we put into the recent results for Lynn? It’s a very small sample and he could easily pick up the lost velocity in his next start. But there’s also the possibility he doesn’t get it back, and then what is he? Certainly not the same pitcher we’ve come to know.
All that being said, Lynn’s track record speaks for itself. He can be one of the best pitcher’s in fantasy when he’s at the top of his game, and there simply isn’t enough data to say he won’t return to that level. Yes, he’s older, but we have no idea when he will start to decline, and we shouldn’t guess on things like that. His next start could be a gem, and then there will be no need to worry.
The Verdict: If you’re worried, sit Lynn for now. If you’re going to sell him, don’t sell him low. His track record is too good and there is too much upside to give up on him for less than he’s worth. Even if he isn't what he once was, he can still be a good fantasy option.
Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals
Flaherty’s case is an interesting one. His first few years in the league made it look like he was going to be an ace, with great numbers backed up by solid underlying metrics. Then 2020 happened, but the poor season was mostly written off as a small sample size. He bounced back in 2021 before his first shoulder injury, but his underlying numbers remained similar to his ugly 2020 season. His value was hard to determine before he injured his shoulder again this spring, and now it’s even harder.
The first thing to determine might be whether or not Flaherty is even good anymore. This may sound crazy, but it’s worth a look. His underlying statistics have been pretty bad for the last few seasons and the contrast to his first few seasons is stark. Here’s a look at his last four seasons:
As you can see, it’s worse across the board. Allowing harder contact, a lessened K%, and a higher BB% will never lead to better results. As for why this is happening, it appears as though his slider and fastball have both been much more hittable. Both pitches had whiff rates way below his norm in 2021, and the xwOBA on each was much higher than his norm. Although his surface numbers were good in 2021, it’s hard to say he’s been a good pitcher for the last few years.
All this said, Flaherty is still a young pitcher who has shown brilliance at the big league level. There is an easy path that sees him return to being a Cy Young contender. He was hyped as a prospect and early in his career, he delivered on that hype. Maybe he has been derailed a bit by injuries the past few seasons and just needed to have a chance to fully heal to return to his normal self. So let’s see how he’s looked so far this year.
During his rehab assignment, Flaherty was very good. He allowed only two runs over a combined eleven innings in double-A and triple-A. He also struck out 15 and didn’t walk a batter. These are excellent signs for Flaherty, and if he is able to pitch as he did during his rehab assignment, the questions about his performance will quickly dissipate.
Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to repeat that success during his first start of the year in the majors. Like Lynn, it appeared Flaherty had a nice matchup against the Pirates in his first start back. Alas, he allowed two runs, walked two, and struck out three over his three innings while throwing 60 pitches. It wasn’t a terrible start, but that’s a ton of pitches for only three innings. He clearly didn’t have his best control.
That would be an issue again in his second start. This time though, Flaherty walked five batters and only managed one strikeout. The lack of control and strikeouts are very concerning given his regression in those areas last year. He once again threw a bunch of pitches (71) in just three innings. He also put up an abysmal 17% whiff rate. It makes you wonder if Flaherty is fully recovered from his shoulder injury, as he just doesn’t seem to have his usual stuff right now.
Another bad sign for Flaherty was his fastball velocity, which was down in both starts - 1.4 mph from last year and 2.1 mph from his dominant 2019. You’ll notice this is similar to Lynn, and there is something to be said about these guys still building up. This could be considered their spring training, where many pitchers notably lose some of their velocity from the year before and then gain it back once the season start. Like Lynn, if Flaherty can’t get that velo back, it’ll be a problem. And it showed in his first two starts, where he only had an 11% whiff rate on the heater. It’s something to keep an eye on in his coming starts.
Flaherty scares me more than Lynn, as he doesn’t have the recent track record that Lynn has and his injury is to his shoulder, which is normally tougher for a pitcher to recover from than a lower-body injury. The upside is greater for Flaherty, but the likelihood he returns to that level this season is lower.
The Verdict: Flaherty shouldn’t be trusted until he shows us something more. If you have other options, go with them. If you can get good value back for Flaherty, consider selling him on his high pedigree while you still can. If you hold and he has a good start where his underlying numbers are still poor, it could be the ideal time to sell him. That being said, make sure you aren’t giving him up for nothing, as the guy has elite potential and we could see that come to fruition at any point.
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
Of the three pitchers outlined here, Baz has to be the most intriguing. Many fantasy experts are high on the young righty, and for obvious reasons. Baz has electrifying stuff and prospect pedigree and has shown out so far in the majors. You see his numbers in the majors, check his underlying stuff, and think, man, this guy is guaranteed to be a stud. But is he?
Baz becoming a bonafide ace wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest, but it isn’t as cut and dry as it appears to be. There are a few things that could hold Baz back, the first of which is something that is out of his control.
Pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays makes things complicated for Baz, especially with him coming off elbow surgery. The team is known to be extremely conservative with their starters in terms of innings pitched, and Baz has never thrown over 100 innings in a season. Coming back in mid-June will help his cause out, but the Rays still aren’t going to throw him out there for seven-plus innings every start. In his six Major League starts, he has thrown a maximum of 82 pitches. That isn’t likely to increase by much this season. He can still be effective with the shortened starts, but his wins and strikeouts could suffer as a result.
Although he has lessened the concern with a very good walk rate in his last two seasons, another issue for Baz is his control. Before 2021, he had never had a season with a walk rate below 10%. He may be over this issue, but it’s certainly not out of the question that those control problems rear their ugly head.
If Baz can keep the walks under control, though, he certainly has all the makings of an ace. His fastball, slider, and curveball are all excellent pitches that produce whiffs as well as weak contact. Here is his absolutely insane pitch data from his first five Major League starts (and yes, it is a small sample size, but it’s still nutty):
So yeah, Baz is pretty good. And he showed it during his rehab outings this year, where he threw 13 innings with a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He only walked four hitters, which is a solid number for a guy with his stuff. Then came his first start back in the majors, where he got torched for five runs over just two and two-thirds innings pitched. It was a strange one for Baz, who had four of seven balls in play hit at over 100 mph. Baz also walked three, which compounded the issue.
Coming off that start, some managers may have panicked. It looks a bit like Flaherty, with the rehab assignment going well and the first start not living up to that. But Baz’s second start would be arguably the best of his short Major League career thus far. In six innings, he struck out seven and did not walk a batter. He gave up only two hits, and his batted ball data against suggests he wasn’t lucky in doing so. His slider produced a 41% whiff rate and his curveball, his supposed third-best pitch, had a stunning 83% whiff rate.
Then in his third start, he was somewhere in between. He was great through four, allowing only one run on three hits. But then he walked a pair and loaded the bases before being pulled from the game in the fifth. He still seems to lose his control at times and it can turn a great start into a mediocre one like it did here. He still managed a 31% whiff rate, and this time it was the slider that really popped out.
So what do we make of this? Which game will better predict who Baz is this season? Well, the first game appears to be a bit of an anomaly in Baz’s career so far, so it’s easy to write it off. But what it shows is that a pitcher as young as Baz who has extremely limited big-league experience may struggle at times. He could flash brilliance in one game and then come back and walk a bunch of batters while not making it through four innings in the next. Or, as in the third game, he could look dominant and suddenly lose it in one inning. There is the chance that growing pains occur and fantasy managers have to grind through that. But we also know Baz is capable of truly outstanding starts.
Baz is more dynamic than either Lynn or Flaherty, and of the three he might have the highest potential, which is saying something considering Lynn and Flaherty both have a season where they finished in the top-five of Cy Young voting. On the flip side, he is the least proven of the three and is in an organization that is going to manage his workload extremely carefully.
The Verdict: Get Baz in your starting lineup. He’s proven that he’s ready to roll, and he looks as dynamic as ever. The only reason you should be selling him is if you get a proven impact player back who has more certainty than Baz does, and some managers might be willing to do just that. Just know that if you trade him, you could be kicking yourself by the end of the year.
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