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It's another tough week to finding pitching on the waiver wire, but I will say it might be a little bit easier than the last two. It's possible we are seeing some of the course correction we were expecting last week with some more interesting rookies getting to the Majors, and some of our opponents not paying as much attention.
At this point in the season, I think it's more or less fine to ignore the April stats for pitchers. It was a short Spring Training, with some weird stuff going on with the baseball and pitchers having to adjust early on - so the May through July stats might be a little bit more telling in this specific case.
Let's get to it - here are your starting pitcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups recommendations for Week 14 of the fantasy season (July 11 - July 17). Let's get to it.
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Waiver Wire Pickups for Shallow Leagues
Pitcher pickup recommendations for leagues of any size
David Peterson, New York Mets (42% Rostered)
The masses still haven't quite gotten there on Peterson, as he remains under 50% rostered. He has gone four straight starts now with double-digit whiffs and has 32 strikeouts in that time. He did run into some serious trouble in his last start, walking five Reds and not even getting out of the fourth inning.
We knew that Peterson would have some of these starts, as his walk rate has been in the double-digits for much of the year. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be willing to start him moving forward though, because the strikeouts (25.6% for the season, 31.4% since June) and ground-balls (54% for the year) have been so good. He will have some dominant starts when he avoids the free pass, and he should be on your fantasy team when that happens.
Aaron Ashby, Milwaukee Brewers (28% Rostered)
The field has really given up on Ashby after his IL stint. I was pretty surprised to see a guy with a 28% K and a 63% GB% rate this low. He didn't have a great go of it on Friday night, and now he has struggled in both of his starts since returning from the IL (both against the Pirates to boot).
I am willing to forgive these two starts because we saw Ashby be absolutely dominant for a while there. He has struck out eight or more hitters on three occasions with a total as high as 12. His stuff is very, very good - and he is quite deceptive with the delivery as well. He's an exciting arm, and I would be taking a shot on him right now if he becomes available.
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds (23% Rostered)
Unfortunately for us, we have seen Lodolo toe the rubber just four times this year. His Major League debut was unimpressive as he gave up five earned runs to the Guardians, walking three and giving up two homers. Since then, however, Lodolo has thrown 16.1 innings, giving up just four runs on 14 hits and striking out 21. He has walked five and given up one homer, so these are encouraging marks.
His 32.6% CSW% and 14.8% SwStr% on the year put him in a really nice company, but of course, we need to see more than 20 innings from him to really believe he can maintain these numbers. The arsenal is impressive, and he was a very well-hyped prospect, so I'm buying into Lodolo.
Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels (25% Rostered)
It was a really impressive return from Detmers on Friday night after he had been dominating in the minor leagues. He racked up 13 whiffs against the Orioles, striking out seven hitters in six scoreless innings. This start was probably even better than his no-hitter earlier this year. He got nine called strikes + whiffs on his fastball, nine on the slider, and even added five on the curveball. He has a deep arsenal, and a high prospect pedigree - so we should be forgiving of the mediocre beginnings of his big league career. Give the young lefty a look.
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox (29% Rostered)
It was not an encouraging debut for Bello, having very little command of his stuff and giving up six hits and three walks over four innings. He only struck out two in that time and there were very few redeeming data points from that start.
One start should not overshadow what he's done in the minor leagues, however, and those numbers are insane. He led the minors in FIP, and had a strikeout rate above 33% with a ground ball rate above 63%. I've never heard of any pitcher doing that kind of stuff at any level, which has me pretty fascinated with Bello. The walk rate has always been a problem (10% this year), and it does appear that he just doesn't command his changeup very well (he was all over the place with that pitch specifically last week). So we aren't going to get a great WHIP out of him, but I think he could have some really dominant starts even against Major League hitters, and I would expect a strikeout rate between 25% and 28% moving forward - which could play just fine if the ground-balls keep coming.
Waiver Wire Pickups for Deeper Leagues
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners (49% Rostered)
Edit: Kirby was demoted to AAA on Saturday for workload management reasons. He should be back with the Major league club in late July, but probably not worth an add right now - wait until after the All-Star break.
The rookie gave up 10 hits on Friday night but gave up just two runs while striking out four and walking one. That was in a tough matchup with the Blue Jays, but all-in-all things haven't been overly positive for Kirby. He hasn't gotten a ton of whiffs (12.3%) and that has kept the strikeout rate around league average (23%). What we have to mention again is the elite walk rate (3.2%), and that is really the only thing keeping me holding on to him.
Giving out so few free passes brings up your floor a ton, and we can believe this is the real thing from Kirby as it's what he's done his whole professional career. Only Jameson Taillon has a lower walk rate with at least 10 starts under his belt. The pitchers with a walk rate below 5% and a strikeout rate above 23%:
So this is a good list of pitchers, but Kirby is the low-man on strikeout rate of the bunch, which will certainly keep him away from greatness. There's no reason to think someone this young can't improve the strikeout rate, but I wouldn't be expecting that to happen this year. I'm still probably holding on to Kirby in redraft, and he makes for a great streamer option if you're in a really shallow league where nobody else wants pitchers like this.
Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants (46% Rostered)
Everybody is bored with Wood, and his numbers don't look all that great this year. He has a 4.83 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP on the year. If we take out April and May, his ERA doesn't change but his WHIP comes down to a very competitive 1.16.
He is another pitcher that really doesn't walk many hitters with a season walk rate of just 5.7%. Given that he also has a low 5.6% Brl%, it's pretty surprising that the numbers aren't better. His strikeout rate is far from terrible (22.6%), and he is still sporting a strong 50% GB%. For whatever reason, the results haven't been coming - but I think he's due for positive ERA regression (his FIP stands at 3.44), so Wood is a guy to pick up if someone in your league has given up hope due to the bad ERA.
Keegan Thompson, Chicago Cubs (42% Rostered)
The Cubs righty went out and threw 5.2 scoreless innings against the Dodgers on Friday night, lowering his season ERA to 3.16. He has been up and down this year, but right now he's on a major UP. He has a strikeout rate above 30% and a walk rate below 7% over his last five starts, an elite pairing. For the year, the strikeout rate is below 25%, and the SwStr% is just 11% - which suggests that he's probably not actually a 30% K% guy. I think he can be a 26% K%, 7% BB% guy for the rest of the year, which gets it done for our purposes.
He is not a ground ball pitcher, and hitters have barreled him up at a rate above the league average, so there will probably be some bad starts when one or two swings of the bat really hurt him, but all things considered, I think we can buy into Thompson for the second half.
Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh Pirates (26% Rostered)
The young Pirate had his best outing of the season last week, striking out seven Reds over six innings while giving up just one run on four hits. His 22% K% had me pretty discouraged on him prior to that start, but there were signs of upside with the strong 30% CSW% and 13.1% SwStr%. Now after that start his K% has come up to 23%. The walk rate is still at 10% for the year, which we know is an issue - and that's been an issue for him in his career.
The reason I still believe in Contreras is the 10% SwStr% on his four-seamer and the 23.4% mark on his slider. Not many pitchers have a double-digit mark on the fastball and a mark above 20% on a secondary pitch. That gives him tons of ceiling, even if the walks do keep his floor down for 2022.
Jose Quintana, Pittsburgh Pirates (16% Rostered)
Nobody wants the boring old veteran, but Quintana has put together four pretty darn good starts in a row, putting up a 2.82 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over that time. He's not a strikeout pitcher at this point in his career, but there are pitchers worse than him and his 21.7% K%. The walks are fine at 7%, and he gets a fair amount of ground-balls at 45%. Over these last four positive starts, he has a 26% K%, a 5.4% BB%, and a 43% GB% - so things are generally moving in the right direction.
I wouldn't expect the 26% K% to sustain, but PNC Park does fit his pitching style pretty well so I think he'll continue to have some good starts down the stretch. He's an option if you're really in a pinch and don't care about strikeouts so much.
Other Waiver Wire Options
- Kyle Gibson, Philadelphia Phillies (34% Rostered)
- Zach Plesac, Cleveland Guardians (45% Rostered)
- Aaron Civale, Cleveland Guardians (21% Rostered)
Alrighty, hope you enjoyed the piece and I hope some of these starting pitcher picks change your life forever and ever, for the better. So long!
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