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Nick Ritrivi identifies five National League starting pitchers who could be fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued draft targets in 2021.
Looking at early mock and seasonal drafts results, we see the huge trend of starting pitchers falling off of draft boards at a furious pace in the early rounds. As a result, managers who miss out on rostering the top-tier starters must identify value sleepers they can target in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts.
Below are five starting pitcher sleepers that stand to return substantial value to managers in mixed and/or N.L.-only leagues. Each of these pitchers currently has an ADP of 175 or higher.
Each pitcher mentioned should return a value far greater than their ADP. They will help managers round out rotations, particularly where managers have targeted offense in lieu of rostering the top N.L. starting pitching talent.
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Taijuan Walker, New York Mets
ADP: 288
New York Mets starting pitcher Taijuan Walker, who is still only 28 years old, has a 3.84 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over his eight-year career. In 2020, over 11 starts and 53 1/3 innings pitched between the Mariners and Blue Jays, Walker posted an impressive 2.70 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 50:19 K:BB.
Due to the shortened 2020 season, and a torn ulnar collateral ligament of the elbow suffered in 2018 resulting in Tommy John surgery, Walker has been limited to just 67 1/3 IP over the last three seasons. Now healthy, Walker slots into the Mets’ starting rotation as their fourth starter and should remain in the rotation when Noah Syndergaard (elbow) returns to action mid-season.
In his first Grapefruit League start of 2021 against the Cardinals on March 9, Walker looked solid. He struck out the first two batters he faced and his fastball sat at 94 mph and touched as high as 95 mph. If Walker can remain healthy, he has the chance to outperform his ADP.
He will need to get his 2020 walk rate of 8.4% down below the MLB average (8.3%) and rely a little more on his slider which produced a higher whiff rate, lower launch angle, and lower exit velocity than his fastball in 2020. A sub-4.00 ERA, an 8.5 K/9, 140-150 IP, and a decent number of wins pitching for a competitive Mets ball club, with the potential for more, is not an unreasonable expectation.
Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 175
Adding Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Tyler Mahle to this list is somewhat dubious. He is not necessarily a “sleeper” given his rising ADP with managers clued in on his potential. In 2020, Mahle posted a 3.59 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 60:21 K:BB in 47 2/3 IP. Mahle saw his strikeout rate increase to 29.9% from 23.2% in 2019, and he generated a whiff rate in the 86th percentile in all of MLB. His strong 2020 season appeared to be the result of a move toward his slider usage which generated a 41.5% whiff rate and .180 xBA against.
On the downside, Mahle did have issues with walks. Specifically, he posted a 10.4% walk rate which was in the bottom third of MLB. Additionally, his 32-degree launch angle allowed on his fastball (as opposed to 13 degrees in 2019) and overall 32.8% fly-ball rate in 2020 does raise a red flag pitching in the Great American Ball Park.
Of course, the signs are there for continued improvement if he can build on his much improved 2020 chase and zone contact percentages. Additionally, if Mahle can generate a higher ground ball rate in line with his 43.5% career average, get his FB rate under control, and limit the walks, he will far outperform his current ADP and provide some nice strikeout totals.
Tejay Antone, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 382
Cincinnati Reds pitchers Tejay Antone is an exciting inclusion on this list. Of all of the pitchers mentioned, he has the highest potential to truly break out and provide managers with top-20 pitching returns in 2021….provided he breaks camp in the Reds’ rotation.
In his first start in Cactus League play on March 3, he struck out five of his first seven batters faced and hit 98 and 99 mph on his first two pitches. Over four total IP of spring training work thus far, Antone has allowed no runs, only three hits, and seven strikeouts. Yes, the sample size is ridiculously small, but it does reveal his potential and shows he is building off of his successful 2020 campaign.
In 2020, Antone was impressive over 35 1/3 IP in which he posted a 2.80 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a 45:16 K:BB primarily out of the Reds’ bullpen. His curveball and fastball spin rates were elite, as was his xBA allowed. Much like Walker and Mahle, the biggest issue with the 27-year old last season was his 11.3% walk rate. If Antone can limit the free passes, he has the chance to exceed his ADP and serve as a potential SP2/3 on fantasy rosters.
With Wade Miley recently suffering a hamstring injury in camp, it is likely Antone will start the season in the rotation. If, however, he does not, he should still provide managers with elite ratios and strikeout totals in a late-inning role for the Reds, albeit with a limited IP total. Of course, if Antone is relegated to the pen, managers could have a stealth option for saves if Amir Garrett and/or Lucas Sims struggle.
Spencer Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
ADP: 427
Philadelphia Phillies right-handed pitcher Spencer Howard isn’t assured of a rotation spot in 2021. Draft him anyway if you’re in the market for a late-round sleeper who could be a potential league-winner. Although Howard struggled after his 2020 call-up, his pedigree (Philadelphia’s 2017 second-round draft pick) and consistent success in the minors is evidence he has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starter in real life and fantasy.
Yes, he posted an unimpressive 5.92 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and a 23:10 K:BB in 24 1/3 IP in his first taste of MLB action in 2020. Don’t let this small sample size fool you. Howard’s talent is not a question. His biggest issue has been his health. In 2019, injuries limited him to only 71 IP. When he did pitch, he was impressive. For instance, over 30 2/3 IP in Double-A in 2019, he posted an 11.15 K/9, to go with a 2.35 ERA and 2.62 FIP.
Prior to that, in 2018, in his first full season as a professional, he posted a 3.78 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, struck out 147 batters in 112 IP, and threw a playoff no-hitter with the Single-A Lakewood Blue Claws. Howard has a live fastball that can reach the high-90s and he has an impressive changeup. Both of these offerings were showcased in his most recent Grapefruit League start on March 10. In that game, Howard generated 13 swings-and-misses and his fastball averaged 94.3 mph topping out at 96 mph in two IP in which he struck out four.
Even if Howard begins the season in the minors, he should be pushing his way into the rotation quickly. If he can remain healthy and limit walks, Howard could reward managers with ratios and strikeout numbers that will far exceed the value of his current ADP.
Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
ADP: 514
Miami Marlins left-handed starting pitcher Trevor Rogers is a very low-risk, high reward option heading into 2021. Much like Spencer Howard, Rogers’ cup-of-coffee in the majors in 2020 was one to forget. He posted a brutal 6.11 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and allowed five home runs and 13 walks in 28 IP. That said he still impressively fanned 39 batters.
Looking at his 2020 numbers, which include a 4.18 BB/9, managers may be quickly inclined to ignore him in redraft formats. This would be a mistake. Rogers’ 2020 metrics tell a different story.
He posted a 46.1% groundball rate to go with a high strikeout rate of 30%, which supported a 2020 xERA of just 3.53. Additionally, his fastball spin and barrel rates were both in the top-70% in all of MLB in 2020. Rogers has the pedigree (the 13th overall 2017 MLB draft pick) and a history of success in the minors, including a 3.92 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and 235 strikeouts in 209 IP over three levels in two seasons.
The question is whether he will break camp in the Marlins’ rotation or begin the year in the minors. If Rogers does begin the season at Triple-A Jacksonville, fantasy managers should expect him to push his way into the rotation by May or June. If given the opportunity to erase the poor, small 2020 MLB sample size, it is likely that Rogers will succeed and vastly outperform his ADP of 514.
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