X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Starters WAR Studs and Duds: Week 25

Connelly Doan examines the Fangraphs leaderboard to identify starting pitchers whose impressive and poor WAR could make them worth adding or dropping in fantasy baseball for Week 25.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s pitchers advanced stats and StatCast studs and duds article series! Each week we will select an advanced stat, choose two studs and two duds, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. At this point in the season, I will focus on an all-encompassing stat for starting pitchers; wins above replacement (WAR).

WAR is an interesting metric that was developed as an attempt to measure a player's relative value compared to a replacement-level player, or a readily-available player (think free agent). The calculation is rather complicated and is broken down with further explanation here for those who are interested.

I will take a look at two players with an impressive WAR and two with a disappointing WAR to see which pitchers have been reliable and which have been difficult to trust. For reference, the highest WAR among qualified starters is Gerrit Cole's 6.5. I will take a look at some interesting names to help fantasy players make tough decisions about who to start with a fantasy title on the line.  

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

WAR Studs 

All stats current as of 9/16/19

 

Lance Lynn - Texas Rangers

(14-10, 3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.2 WAR)

Our first WAR stud has had a solid season and has a WAR higher than many better-known fantasy names. Lance Lynn has rebounded after a poor 2018 season, posting solid numbers across the board. Let's take a look under the hood and see how Lynn has found his success.  

The first thing that stands out has been Lynn's solid control. His 1.25 WHIP is much more in line with his career 1.31 mark than 2018's 1.51. Consequently, his batted-ball profile has been great. Lynn's 87.2-MPH average exit velocity and 33.1% hard-hit rate are both in the top 30% of baseball and he has kept the ball on the ground for the most part with a launch angle of 13 degrees.

The second thing that stands out has been Lynn's strikeout numbers. Lynn has made his way into my Strikeout Rate Risers article several times and has a 27.1% K rate with an 12.3% swinging-strike rate. Lynn relies mostly on fastballs (51.6% four-seamer, 16.8% sinker, 15.2% cutter), but has been able to get swings and misses thanks to the movement he has gotten on those pitches. Specifically, the spin rates on his fastball and cutter are in the top 10% of baseball. His movement combined with a high level of control has allowed Lynn to miss bats as well as avoid hard contact.

Lynn has been a standout fantasy option but faces a tough Astros matchup on the road this week. I could understand if fantasy owners did not want to risk it by benching him, but, given how much he has helped teams all season, I would not have a problem starting him this week.

 

Noah Syndergaard - New York Mets

(10-8, 4.15 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 4.2 WAR)

Our second WAR stud has not provided what fantasy owners were hoping for this season but still has a high WAR. Noah Syndergaard has a mediocre 4.15 ERA and a 24.2% K rate this season; however, his WAR indicates that he has been one of the most valuable starters. Let's take a look at how these conflicting numbers can exist. 

The main thing that is helping Syndergaard is his FIP. His 3.53 FIP is much better than his ERA, indicating that he has gotten unlucky. This jives with his batted-ball profile; Thor's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the top 15% of baseball and he has kept the ball on the ground with a 9.4-degree launch angle. His SIERA doesn't quite back all of this up though. His 4.07 SIERA suggests that, despite his batted-ball profile, his results have been what they should be.

It has been an interesting season for Syndergaard, which has made thing frustrating for fantasy owners. He has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts and has to go to Coors Field this week. It would be a very tough decision to sit him this week, but I wouldn't blame owners for doing so.  

 

WAR Duds

All stats current as of 9/16/19

 

Wade Miley - Houston Astros

(14-5, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 1.9 WAR)

Our first WAR dud has a lowly WAR despite being a huge fantasy contributor. Wade Miley has completely restarted his career with the development of his cutter and has been contributing on a competitive Astros team. His numbers have regressed a bit over the course of the season, but he still has only the 49th-highest WAR among qualified starting pitchers. Should this fact impact fantasy owners' decisions on whether to start him or not for the final few weeks? 

Let me quickly reassure those that have Miley; he may not be the sexiest fantasy option as we all know, but he has been a solid pitcher this season. I will first point out the aspects of Miley's game that may contribute to his low WAR. First, he has not pitched all that deep into games. Miley has averaged roughly 5 1/3 innings per start, which isn't awful but isn't great. Second, he has had relatively low strikeout numbers. The switch to the cutter has helped him immensely but is not conducive to striking out hitters. His 19.9% strikeout rate isn't poor, but it is hard to rack up strikeouts when you throw an 87-MPH cutter 47% of the time.

The biggest factor in Miley's low WAR has been his high FIP (4.42). This stat, along with his SIERA (4.76), suggests that Miley is overachieving and may be benefitting from his team's defense rather than his actual skills. However, there is conflicting evidence to support Miley's performance. His batted-ball profile has been strong this season (87-MPH average exit velocity, 32.1% hard-hit- rate, 7.8-degree launch angle).

Miley had thrown a few poor games recently but rebounded nicely in his last start. He will face a Mike Trout-less Angels this week; given his overall season performance, I would be starting Miley.

 

Yu Darvish - Chicago Cubs

(6-6, 3.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.0 WAR)

Our second WAR dud had a slow start to the season but has been providing more of what fantasy owners have expected lately. Yu Darvish now has respectable stats, but his WAR sits below many other starters. Should this matter down the stretch?

The bottom line is that Darvish has pitched extremely well lately. His 2.01 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 2.52 SIERA over his last five starts indicate that everything is clicking. Further, nothing really stands out in his season stats. He has managed to last about 5 2/3 innings per start, which isn't great but isn't awful. Further, his batted-ball profile has been slightly below average on the season. However, everything else has looked fine, especially of late.   

Darvish has figured things out and he looks like a higher-end fantasy asset once again. He has a two-start week, taking on the Reds in a decent matchup and the Cardinals in a tougher one. Regardless, I would not hesitate to use Darvish this week, despite his WAR.

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez55 mins ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk1 hour ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King1 hour ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich1 hour ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram1 hour ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender1 hour ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III1 hour ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington2 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson2 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer2 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams2 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge2 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews2 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones2 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin3 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice3 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep3 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson3 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell3 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao3 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry3 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey3 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt3 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz4 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman4 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford4 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi4 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen5 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick5 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners5 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay5 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López5 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland5 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia6 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti6 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL6 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette6 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus6 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants6 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears6 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Sam Ehlinger6 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele7 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns7 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals7 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter7 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry7 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips7 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith7 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball7 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter7 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey7 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton7 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale7 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant8 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal8 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II8 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons8 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young8 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser8 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo8 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud8 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart8 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba8 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga8 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry8 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown8 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault8 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere8 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn9 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro9 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions11 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans11 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders11 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear12 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins12 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL12 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä12 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway12 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys12 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal12 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy12 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris12 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk12 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth14 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp14 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim15 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood15 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau15 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole15 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith19 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment19 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka19 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov19 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov19 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes19 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]