RADIO
David A Marcillo takes a look at the unsettled bullpens in the American League to find draft targets in the 2021 fantasy baseball season.
"Spring stats don't matter." "Grapefruit and Cactus League games don't count." "Everyone is just working on something." These are all things we hear before baseball season, and they're mostly true. However, injuries certainly count, and there have been a few major ones already in March when baseball doesn't count.
The National League seems to have more set bullpen roles, at least at this point of the year, than the American League. The AL features more committees as well as more question marks. Bullpen roles will be tracked daily in our Closers and Saves Bullpen Depth Charts so make sure to keep an eye on those as the season begins.
With about a week until Opening Day 2021, several bullpens in the American League still aren't set, at least not to a point where fantasy managers can feel comfortable about all of their closers. Let's take a look at the bullpens in the AL where things remain up in the air.
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Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles bullpen was supposed to be easy this year. Hunter Harvey was supposed to open the year in the ninth inning and there was no reason to think he wouldn't hang onto that role all year. In fact, there were plenty of reasons to think he'd excel in that role. But then an oblique injury got in the way of all of those plans. Harvey is expected to be out until late May or early June, and the Orioles are expected to mix and match in the ninth inning with guys like Cesar Valdez and Tanner Scott.
Valdez is a 36-year-old with only 65 big league innings on his resume. He was excellent in 2020, posting a 1.26 ERA/2.14 FIP in a small sample of 14 1/3 innings. Tanner Scott has more strikeout upside, but also exhibited occasional bouts with a lack of control last season. Still, he also posted a sparkling ERA in the shortened 2020 season, putting up a 1.31 mark with a 3.48 FIP. Both Valdez and Scott should be solid enough to hold down the ninth inning until Harvey is ready to return, but neither one is likely to make enough noise to really be a must-add in fantasy formats. Also, Valdez could end up in a more versatile role, as he's even started some games in Grapefruit League play. Still, fantasy managers desperate for one more closer should keep an eye on the Orioles bullpen and grab whichever guy seems to be laying claim to the ninth inning.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays bullpen seemed more or less settled, with Nick Anderson set to take on the majority of save chances. But then injury hit this bullpen too, and Anderson is not expected to pitch again until after the All-Star Break. He's dealing with a torn ligament in his elbow, but luckily, surgery has not been recommended. That leaves the Rays with plenty of solid relievers still in their bullpen, but no clear ninth-inning role.
The early favorites are Peter Fairbanks and Diego Castillo. Fairbanks has shown plenty of swing-and-miss stuff the past two years, but has also had some struggles with control along the way. His only two big-league saves came in 2019. Castillo has a somewhat similar profile to Fairbanks: plenty of strikeouts, but plenty of walks to go with them. Castillo has 12 saves in his career but may be used in a more versatile role. Truth is, all of the Rays relievers could be used in versatile roles with the closer being a different guy each day depending on what happened the day before. For now, this seems like a bullpen to avoid in most standard fantasy formats.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays bullpen is another one that was supposed to be all settled coming into the season, with free-agent signing Kirby Yates ticketed for the ninth inning. Yates underwent Tommy John Surgery this week though, and won't pitch again until the 2022 season. While the team has not yet made an official announcement, recent spring usage surely points to Jordan Romano taking on the closer's role.
Romano was fantastic in 2020, posting a 1.23 ERA with a 36.8 K%. He also showed decent control, posting a walk rate of 8.8 BB%. There's some risk involved in Romano, as he only has 30 major league innings on his resume, but there's plenty of upside there too. Romano should hold the job all season as long as he pitches well, and he's currently going very late if at all in most standard drafts.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins bullpen had firmly established roles last season, but the team lost Sergio Romo, Trevor May, and Tyler Clippard to free agency in the offseason. Their closer from the last two years, Taylor Rogers, will be back though. Rogers saved 30 games in 2019 then led the team with nine in 2020. The Twins also went out and signed former White Sox closer Alex Colome and former Angels closer Hansel Robles. The three will form a solid back end of the bullpen, with Colome and Rogers likely sharing save chances.
Manager Rocco Baldelli has stated that both Colome and Rogers will finish "a lot of games" this season, and added that he is unlikely to name a full-time closer. Unless one of those two guys gets injured, this will be a hard bullpen to trust in standard formats. In holds leagues, however, both Colome and Rogers are strong options.
Detroit Tigers
Last month, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said he would name a closer before Opening Day. This week, he changed his mind. Hinch has now said that he won't name a closer until after Opening Day, if at all. Gregory Soto is the best reliever in the Detroit bullpen and has performed well this spring. He was expected to be the team's closer, but they might want to be able to use him in more of a fireman role instead of limiting him to just save chances.
Joe Jimenez and Bryan Garcia spent time in the ninth inning last season, but neither one inspired much confidence. Buck Farmer and Jose Cisnero could mix in late in games as well. If Soto does indeed end up with the role, he's worth a look in mixed leagues, but if not, this could be another bullpen to avoid, at least at the beginning of the season.
Texas Rangers
Another bullpen that should have been easy and straightforward had a hardware store full of wrenches thrown into the gears this spring. Jose Leclerc was supposed to close in Texas, with Jonathan Hernandez and Joely Rodriguez setting up. Now, all three of those pitchers are injured, leaving the Rangers with a huge empty space at the end of games. The current frontrunners for saves are non-roster invitees Matt Bush and Ian Kennedy. Bush has apparently "looked great" in spring camp, but the former first overall pick hasn't pitched in a big-league game since 2018. Kennedy, meanwhile, was excellent in 2019, saving 30 games with a 3.41 ERA (backed up by a 2.99 FIP). His 2020 was a whole different story though. In 14 innings, he posted an even 9.00 ERA/8.83 FIP.
Bush seems like the frontrunner for the closer's role based on Cactus League performance, but Kennedy's experience may give him a slight edge when it comes down to it. For now, this is another bullpen to mostly avoid in fantasy, although both Bush and Kennedy can certainly be taken with a final-round pick.
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