Starting Pitchers Breaking Out for Fantasy Baseball: Part II - The New Strikeout Kings

May 21, 2022

Thunder Dan Palyo breaks down part two of the top starting pitcher risers in strikeout rate early in 2022 to see if their K% is sustainable. These SP could be breakouts for fantasy baseball or sell-high candidates.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote about pitchers who were striking out a lot of hitters and focused in particular on some pitchers who had seen major increases in their strikeout rates when compared to their 2021 seasons. That article can be found here and I got a lot of great feedback on it, so I wanted to reprise it here with a part two!

I wanted to check in on the pitchers who were profiled in the first article and see whether or not their strikeout rates have regressed or held steady. I'll do that first and see how those pitchers have fared over their last few starts since part one of this piece was written.

Then I'll take a look at six more pitchers who have strikeout rates in the upper 20s and analyze why they have been having success this season, as well as attempt to determine whether or not it might be sustainable.

Checking Back In

Here's a chart that I made that shows how the pitchers from part one of the article are faring as far as their strikeout rates go now when compared to when May 9th when I wrote the article.

Our top of the leaderboard is holding strong with only modest decreases for Mac, Lauer, Luzardo, and Cortes. Super Mario (aka Cortes) is the surprise there as I had him pegged for regression, and it appeared it came as he slowed down a bit, and then he went out and struck out 18 Rangers and White Sox over his two most recent starts.

Gausman has come back to around where he finished last year at 29% but was up over 30% until he only struck out three Mariners in his last start. Kyle Wright got shelled right after the first article came out and I felt vindicated, but then he struck out nine Padres in his most recent start. Cortes and Wright feel like they are going to be roller coaster rides for DFS, but for you season-long folks you will happily take the average results over the larger sample.

The only guy from the remaining group here who was a bit of a disappointment was Eovaldi. He was absolutely rocked by the Astros in his last start and allowed five home runs...in one inning! Needless to say, his ERA ballooned as a result and his K% has dropped down to a very average 23.7%. He will probably bounce back, but he may not be in the mix in terms of being an elite strikeout guy after all. Zimmermann and Blackburn were clear impostors who have regressed to around league average and we saw that coming at least.

The Best of the Rest

Remember, we aren't just looking for pitchers with 25% strikeout rates or better, we looking for pitchers who have made a noticeable jump from previous seasons and who have not already been established "strikeout kings." In the case of Hunter Greene, he's a rookie and so we don't have any prior years' data to compare to, so I simply put his AAA strikeout rate (which was weirdly exactly the same) but even that sample is relatively small.

Sean Manaea - 28.7%

Manaea is a pitcher in the truest sense of the word. He's a guy who gets it done without having an overpowering fastball and has actually seen a dip in velocity on his two-seamer from last season (sitting around 91 MPH down from 92 last year). The former Oakland hurler flirted with a 28% K rate back in 2019 but made only five starts in an injury-riddled season. Since coming over to San Diego, however, he's been awesome and the Padres have to be thrilled with what they are getting from him so far.

Sean Manaea, Wicked 78mph Breaking Ball. pic.twitter.com/yfwEdgv78x

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 19, 2022

Around the time that I wrote the article in this series, he was only around 24%, and since he's been mowing down hitters including a 12-strikeout masterpiece against Atlanta in his last start. His arsenal is pretty simple, he throws his sinker around 91 and then compliments it with an 84 MPH changeup and 79 MPH curveball. The curve has the best results in terms of getting swings and misses, but his sinker has a solid 15.5% SwStr% for a pitch that isn't thrown all that hard.

I'm looking for something that he's doing majorly different from years past, but not finding much. It might be that he's just had a few really good match-ups recently (Miami and then a slumping Braves team) or that he's being a little more aggressive with his approach. It's quite possible he dips back down into that 24-25% range where he was last year, but that's still pretty darn good. He definitely doesn't fit the profile of a 30% strikeout pitcher and I don't see him improving any further on his current mark.

Pablo Lopez - 28.4%

Pablo had a pretty mediocre outing against the Nationals since I pulled the data for this article and has since dipped down into the 27% range. So he's actually right around where he was last season. I did want to include him here, however, just to point out that he's having a terrific year and that the jump he took last year (up to 27.5% from 24.6% in 2020) is totally sustainable.

His changeup is filthy and carries a 22.3% SwStr% currently. And he's a guy who doesn't rely on fastball velocity either, as he only throws his around 93 MPH. He throws a cutter, sinker, and a curveball and has had some really impressive outings this year when he's been able to locate his stuff. Pablo is the real deal and I think he sticks around all season in this 27-28% range.

Tarik Skubal - 28.3%

Speaking of the real deal, has Tarik Skubal finally arrived? We've seen the flashes of greatness from him in both of the last two seasons, but he's also been smacked around and was a guy who we routinely stacked against in DFS because he was serving up home runs with regularity. But the 2022 version of Skubal has been really fun to watch and for the first time we are seeing high strikeout numbers and solid run prevention at the same time.

Tarik Skubal, Filthy 78mph Curveball...Bend The Knee. pic.twitter.com/KNatU1IFfm

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 10, 2022

This is the pitch that we've been waiting for! Skubal has an adequate four-seamer that he throws around 93-94 MPH and a two-seamer that tails away from RHH that he throws about as fast. And we already knew he had a plus slider, but if he continues to develop this curveball (that he throws 8-10 MPH slower than the slider) then opposing hitters are really in trouble.

This year he's reduced the number of four-seamers he is throwing, which has been a good thing since that pitch was leading to the largest number of barrels. He's throwing the slider more often (up to 28% from 23%) and the sinker (up to 21% from 13%) and that variation in speeds and movement is really messing with hitters. This is the guy of all of these pitchers who I think really has staying power and maybe even 30% or greater upside if he continues to evolve his arsenal of pitches.

Hunter Greene - 28.6%

Greene got everyone's attention when he came out throwing absolute smoke in his first few starts. He was averaging 99-100 on his fastball and was basically just trying to throw it past everyone as hard as he can. And he had plenty of success doing that.

Hunter Greene strikes out Freddie Freeman with 3 pitches over 100 mph 😳 pic.twitter.com/fQAElTF3RN

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 17, 2022

But he quickly found out a few sobering realities of pitching in the majors. One was that throwing as hard as you can for 5-6 innings isn't sustainable and we quickly saw his four-seamer drop down into the 96-98 MPH range (still fast, but not laser beam fast). And the other realization was that if you throw it really hard (and straight) that big league hitters are going to time it up and hit it a long way. Greene has allowed 11 home runs in only 33.1 innings and is giving up a 12% barrel rate. That's um...not very good.

But Greene is just a young buck and still figuring it out. He's been much better in terms of limiting contact recently, allowing only four hits over his last 12.2 innings. His walks have crept up (9 walks over that same stretch) but so have the strikeouts and he's fresh off a 9-strikeout outing against the Pirates.

The one adjustment he has seemed to make is that he's throwing his fastball less often (down to 54%) and his slider more. His slider is his best pitch with a 16.6% SwStr% and 34.8% CSW%. And when guys do make contact with the slider, it's resulting in outs (.085 xAVG, .180 xwOBA).

He's only throwing his changeup 7% of the time and it's not a very good pitch for him just yet. Like many young pitchers who throw hard, he can get away without a solid third pitch for now but it will have to be something he develops at some point if he wants to have some staying power. The fastball/slider combo is good enough, however, if he can maintain any kind of decent control we see him hang around this 28% number all season.

Frankie Montas - 27.2%

Montas was having a solid start to the season and was doing his normal, usual thing and striking out about a batter per inning until last week he really grabbed my attention when he struck out 12 Angels over six innings. That boosted his K% up over 27% and forced me to include him here with these other guys. It's not a big jump from what he saw last year or really the last three years since he was at 25% in 2020 and 26% in 2019. But I still wanted to investigate a little further.

His velocity on all four of his pitches is right around where we saw it last year. He throws a four-seamer, two-seamer, splitter, and a slider. His pitch usage helps explain the story a little, perhaps, as he's throwing the sinker (his worst swing-and-miss pitch) less often and throwing the splitter and sinker slightly more. He's also introduced a cutter that he's thrown only 4% of the time, but that pitch looks more like a change of pace pitch more than anything and hasn't missed bats.

His slider has been more effective this year as the SwStr% on it has increased from 13% to 19%. His overall SwStr% of 15.3% is really solid and the best of his career, but still only a half-point higher than in 2021. We saw him go on a streak last year where he was mowing down hitters for nearly a month and then cool off again and it's quite possible that he's just a streaky pitcher. But the overall average results have been good and his first eight starts this season have proven that 2021 was no fluke and that he's a high-end pitcher with major strikeout upside. Keep an eye on him as that 12-strikeout game might be the sign he goes on another tear.

Logan Gilbert - 28%

There were some high expectations for Gilbert entering his sophomore season this year. He struggled a bit early on in his rookie year but finished 2021 on a high note and a lot of really smart people in the industry were very high on him this Spring. His ascension into the "Strikeout King" territory is really due to his most recent back-to-back 9-strikeout outings against Toronto and Philadelphia, which really caught my eye as those are arguably two of the better offenses in baseball.

But my stat dive didn't turn up much in terms of evidence for the 3% strikeout rate bump at all. His overall SwStr% and CSW% are both down slightly from last year and his pitch mix is nearly identical to what it was in 2021. And his walk rate is up slightly, too. So if the data doesn't explain it, is it real? It's a little early in the season to tell, perhaps, but Gilbert is a big, lanky pitcher and the ball seems to jump out of his hand and get on hitters in a hurry. His velocity hasn't changed much, but he sits 95 MPH on his four-seamer and can touch 97-98 when he rears back.

Logan Gilbert, ⛽️ and K Struts. pic.twitter.com/J3OHrqDfLY

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 11, 2022

Something I know my friend Eric Samulski mentioned last season was that Gilbert was doing a poor job at tunneling his pitches and that his slider and curve deliveries looked very different. I don't claim to be the expert that he or someone like Rob Friedman are when it comes to breaking down pitchers' deliveries, but I watched a bunch of Gilbert highlights prepping for this piece and it seemed to me that he had fixed that issue a bit and perhaps that is helping a bit. And despite the increase in walks, it does appear that he's locating his fastball better and hitting corners more often instead of leaving it over the plate. I think he's obviously still a work in progress, but if he's getting these kinds of results right now and still a bit unpolished, then he could maintain this high strikeout rate or even improve it further. I'm big on control, and for me, if Gilbert can reel in the walks, perhaps he can start pitching a bit deeper into games, and keeping guys off the basepaths would allow him to go after strikeouts by attacking hitters with his plus breaking balls.

Thanks, everyone, for reading and if you all continue to enjoy these Strikeout Kings pieces, then I might just turn this into a series - who knows! Good luck in your leagues and/or in DFS, RotoBallers!

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