Late-Round Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Targets: WHIP

This is the next part of a series reviewing standard rotisserie league categories to identify later-round draft options and sleepers to help your fantasy team in each spot. We've already covered SP targets to help with ERA.

In this article, we're looking for starting pitchers that can help your fantasy team's WHIP. This is not an easy task. Most of the great WHIP projections go off of the board pretty quickly. After the top 30 or so starting pitchers, you are generally taking on a lot of risk. We are typically taking on some risk with late-round starting pitchers, so make sure you get at least a couple of the top-30 names on your team.

The more breathing room in pitching, the better, but for now, let's attack the WHIP category.

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The Makings of WHIP

The WHIP calculation is simply walks plus hits divided by innings pitched. Hits are pretty tough to predict since a lot of what goes into that is random. Walking hitters is much less random, that is mostly in the pitcher's sole control. For this reason, you are better off attacking low-walk pitchers late in the draft rather than trying to guess at who will allow fewer hits.

Walk rates are pretty steady year-over-year as well, giving us a high level of confidence about our projections in that category. Let's dive into some low-walk, late-round pitchers that can help bolster your team's WHIP.

The Targets

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 175)

The risk here is innings pitched, as it has been for quite a while with Kershaw. He managed just 121.2 innings last year, and has not gone above 180 since way back in 2015.

The reports about his current health are positive, and while he is on the field there is little question about his performance. Check out his BB% and WHIP totals over the last five seasons.

There is no reason to think Kershaw will suddenly bloat to a 6.0% walk rate, which keeps his WHIP projection very positive. You may only get 100 innings out of Kershaw this year, but your team's WHIP will be benefited by drafting him at the current discount.

John Means, Baltimore Orioles (ADP 220)

The lack of a strong strikeout rate does lead to him giving up more hits than you'd like (more balls in play = more hits), but he is another guy who does a fantastic job limiting walks. For his career, he has thrown 348.2 innings with an elite 5.0% walk rate. That has kept his ERA at a low 1.08 despite a more average-looking 3.82 ERA.

A big change in 2021 for Means is the ballpark. Camden Yards moved the left-field fences back and made them taller. This will probably hurt his WHIP a bit, as the outfielders will have more ground to cover, which will allow some fly-balls to drop in that otherwise would not have. It is a likely positive for his ERA as well, as the difference is sure to take away some home runs.

Either way, Means' reliably low walk rate will keep his WHIP as a positive; he's a really good value way down there in the 200's.

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (ADP 214)

We have only seen 26.2 Major League innings from Ryan, but they were good ones. He went for a 30% K% and a 5.0% BB% in those innings. This small of as sample size isn't really worth reading into, but it is backed up by his strong minor league numbers as well. In 66 innings in AAA last year, he walked just a dozen batters for a 4.8% BB%. That carried through immediately to the big leagues, and I have no reason to suspect it won't be sustained in 2022.

It is tough to project what Ryan will do overall this year since he gave up such a ridiculously high fly-ball rate and his pitch arsenal falls short of dominant. However, we can say with confidence that he will post a very usable WHIP mark given his history of just not handing out free passes.

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (ADP 100)

A little more expensive here, but not nearly as expensive as we've seen in recent years. Darvish had a disappointing line in 2021, going for a 4.22 ERA as he dealt with a big-time home run issue (1.52 HR/9). Despite those bad numbers, his WHIP remained strong at 1.09, bolstered by another strong 6.5% walk rate. Really since 2018, he has been one of the best pitchers in the game at avoiding walks.

The ground-ball rate for Darvish went in the wrong direction last year, coming down below 40% for just the second time in his career. This could actually benefit him in WHIP, however, as ground-balls go for hits less frequently than line drives or fly-balls. Darvish is one of my favorite SP targets this year with the discount we're seeing on him, and he's a really good bet to post another great WHIP in 2022.

Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox (ADP 125)

Last season was Eovaldi's best work, posting a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 182.1 innings. He especially turned it on in the second half, with a great 29.1% K%, a 4.5% BB%, and a 1.14 WHIP over his final 79 innings.

He has been pretty inconsistent in his career, but he has always managed walks well. Besides one short-sample blip in 2019, he has come in with a walk rate below 8.0% in each season since 2014. His career walk rate sits at 6.9%, and the strikeout gains were really encouraging to see late last year.

The field has noticed what Eovaldi did last year, as evidenced by his highest ADP ever. He can be a tough guy to pull the trigger on with some of the other high-upside names around him, but if you need some WHIP safety – Eovaldi is a nice pick.

Other names to consider: Jose Urquidy, Sean Manaea, Pablo Lopez, Logan Gilbert, Bailey Ober

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