RADIO
If you consume any sort of March Madness content, the first thing you'll hear is how good teams must be in KenPom. Or to be exact, how they rank in offensive and defensive efficiency. I'm going to touch on the handful of teams who actually can win the NCAA Tournament, but for the most part, those numbers don't mean much when it comes to game-by-game breakdowns. Here's an example:
When filling out my bracket, I prefer to revert to this advice, 'Almost anyone can make the Final Four, only a select few can win the title.'
Here, I'm going to break down every first-round matchup and pod with game-by-game and futures bets. For my money, the South region is not nearly as strong as the East. But, this region does possess some of the best individual talent in the field with matchup-dependent nuances at every level. Can Houston bully their way into a Final Four or will one of these studs lead their team through a magical run?
1. Houston (-23.5) vs 16. Longwood
A few days of rest will do wonders for the Houston Cougars. J'Wan Roberts needs to get healthier with them already being short-handed in the post. Still, Jamal Shead is a Wooden Award finalist and has shown the ability to carry the Cougars. The injuries give me pause for their long-term outlook, but this is overall a solid path to make the second weekend.
I will say that Longwood is the best 16-seed by a wide margin. Their strength of schedule is horrendous but they rebound well and get to the foul line. Although the tempo should be slow, you'd like them to shoot more threes and increase variance to pull an upset.
Kelvin Sampson-led teams rarely lose to mid-majors because of their brutal ball-pressure defense and the way they attack the offensive glass. Over time this pressure overwhelms teams without depth, even in a low possession battle. No bet for me and I'll be closely monitoring Houston's health for the following rounds.
8. Nebraska (-1.5) vs 9. Texas A&M
My second bet was on Texas A&M +3. First of all, I believe the SEC is a more competitive conference than the Big 10 overall. The Huskers are 335th in Haslametrics "Away From Home" metric, while the Aggies are 40th. Second, A&M has a massive rebounding edge. A potentially worse shooting night on a neutral court should give the advantage to the team that dominates the glass.
However, A&M isn't perfect and can clearly shoot poorly on any given night. They're 353rd in 3-point percentage whereas Nebraska is 70th. We'll need another big game from All-SEC guard Wade Taylor IV who's averaging nearly 19 ppg and coming off back-to-back 30-point outings. Rebounding is my key here, but I'd like to back A&M at +2 or better.
5. Wisconsin (-4.5) vs 12. James Madison
Hooo buddy this one should be a doozy. James Madison is 31-3 including a win in East Lansing over Michigan State. Yes, the rest of their schedule leaves a lot to be desired but you have to applaud any team with over 30 wins for an incredible season. Meanwhile, the Badgers are starting to look good once again as they beat Purdue en route to a Big 10 runner-up finish. AJ Storr finally looks like a stud but Max Klesmit is the real x-factor to me. When he shoots the ball well, Wisconsin's offense can move at a high level. When he doesn't, they end up forcing half-court offense through Tyler Wahl in the mid-post often leading to disgustingly slow low-percentage looks late in the shot clock.
JMU doesn't necessarily have the frontcourt size to hang with Steven Crowl and Wahl, but they do two things very well. The Dukes are 39th nationally in defensive turnover rate and top 100 in rebounding meaning they apply ball pressure and crash the glass, leading to extra possessions and scoring opportunities. Specific to this matchup, we have contrasting styles where Wisconsin is a solid rebounding team that's shown the ability to control the tempo and take care of the ball. I am intrigued at how JMU's lack of frontcourt depth and playstyle will affect the Badger's offense. If they try to feed the post, it actually could benefit the 12 seed from an efficiency standpoint. On the contrary, James Madison struggled twice against Appalachian State who also plays a slower tempo with solid play down low. Although I haven't bet anything yet, I think there's a little value on the underdog and wouldn't be shocked to see either result on Friday.
4. Duke (-11.5) vs 13. Vermont
The Blue Devils are a hard team to put a finger on, having losses to Georgia Tech and Arkansas but beating Baylor and Michigan State at neutral sites. I'm actually starting to like this Duke team right when others are hopping off the bandwagon. Depending on who wins the 12/5 game, they may run into a rugged JMU squad before a clash with the toughest team in the country, Houston. Kyle Filipowski, a projected lottery pick, paired with Mark Mitchell and Ryan Young, make a solid frontcourt. This post presence should help them against an undersized Vermont squad. The Catamounts play a high-variance style (slow tempo and shoot a lot of threes), making them a trendy upset pick in recent years. Unless they're on fire from deep, however, I think Duke's post-presence will overwhelm them throughout the game.
Duke's efficiency profiles as a team that can make a championship run, but relying so heavily on Jeremy Roach may not be the most effective game plan against a team like Houston or even James Madison.
6. Texas Tech (-5) vs 11. NC State
This is the first matchup I just don't really care much for. Texas Tech is a little overrated, and NC State has played quite poorly for multiple stretches. Wolfpack guard DJ Horne is possibly the best player on the court, but the Red Raiders have the next four or so. Tech has a solid post presence in Warren Washington, but the 7-footer has been injured and is questionable to return for the NCAA Tournament. Without Washington, America's favorite DJ Burns Jr. should have the ability to own the paint.
Regardless of whether the big man suits up or not, Tech's guard play should hold Horne at bay while getting plenty of decent looks from the outside. The Red Raiders advance here, I just don't think there's enough confidence to place a bet.
3. Kentucky (-13.5) vs 14. Oakland
The age-old question: What are we supposed to do with the Kentucky Wildcats in our bracket? They play with a fast pace and are incredible offensively, but just putrid defensively. Their guards don't want to work to stay in front of the ball, and big men don't play physically against a true post scorer. But, they can hoop. I mean true, unfiltered bucket-getters at any level. Reed Sheppard is shooting over 50% (!!) from three on the season, and the combo of Antonio Reeves and Rob Dillingham can go for 40+ in any matchup.
Greg Kampe made sure his Oakland squad was tested in the non-conference, playing six Quad 1 games despite only winning one. Horizon League teams are hardly this battle-tested, and the Golden Grizzlies shouldn't be scared of the stage.
Oakland's zone defense can give certain teams fits, but it shouldn't slow down the Wildcats given their propensity to score from deep. If IPFW can score 90+ on the Griz, I think Kentucky can name their score.
7. Florida vs 10. Boise State / Colorado
I don't have much on this matchup until we see who the 10 seed is, but I will say that I really liked the Gators until this past weekend when starting center Micah Handlogten suffered a season-ending injury. Florida, led by my guy Tyrese Samuel, is one of the few teams with enough frontcourt depth to compete. However, they thrive on the offensive glass. Without Handlogten, they lose rebounding and rim protection, which can only hurt the long-term outlook of a team with an already shaky defensive profile. Meanwhile, I also like both of the potential 10 seeds. Either opponent should open around a possession, and I'm currently undecided on who advances to face Marquette.
2. Marquette (-14) vs 15. Western Kentucky
The big news from Big East Runner-Up Marquette is that star guard Tyler Kolek should return for their first-round matchup. He's missed the last six matchups, including losses to UConn and Creighton. Kolek is the straw that stirs Marquette's drink, ranking third nationally in assist rate with the ability to score at all three levels.
Western Kentucky plays the fastest tempo in the country, which is not favorable against the Golden Eagles. Marquette is elite at forcing turnovers and getting back on defense, limiting the Hilltoppers' transition opportunities and easy buckets. The C-USA champion also has a low three-point rate, making this a bad matchup for a 15-seed upset.
Region Picks
Assuming Houston's health improves, I could see this region being relatively chalky. It certainly isn't a cakewalk but is also not as touchy as the West Region. James Madison could make a Sweet 16 run, but it's hard to see them getting past the Cougars. Other double-digit seeds are relatively underwhelming, although the play-in winner of Boise vs Colorado has some intrigue. Despite Kentucky's flaws, I think they got a great draw in a weaker pod before potentially facing a team they match up decent with. I fear Houston would bully Kentucky down low, but they also don't run a ton of sets for back-to-basket post players so you never know. With the Wildcats' defensive flaws, they could lose in the first weekend or make a Final Four run a la Miami from a year ago. The safe pick is Houston, but if you want to be different I recommend choosing from the bottom half of this region.
My current NCAA Tournament Bets:
Florida Atlantic ML (+114 Draftkings), risk 1u to win 1.14u
Texas A&M +3 (-110 Draftkings), risk 1u to win .91u
Drake ML (+105 Draftkings), risk 1u to win 1.05u
YTD 132-108-2 ,+10.97u
New Mexico to make Final Four (+2500 BetMGM) risk .4u to win 10u
Futures: 0-2, -.6u
Follow me on Twitter @DrRoddy_ or here for up-to-date bets
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