RADIO
Chase Davis looks at promising NHL rookies who could disappoint and decline in their second season for fantasy hockey owners. These forwards could be draft busts.
As the NHL continues to shift to a higher skilled, faster game, more NHL coaches are entrusting their young players with better opportunities to have a greater impact offensively. The days of talented youngsters having to grind out extended periods of time on the fourth line before moving up in the lineup seems to be fading away. As a result, one of the greatest strengths fantasy owners can have is the ability to identify which young players can bring sustainable production to a team and which players are better left untouched.
Obviously, with limited experience at the world’s highest level, this can be quite the challenge. How can one predict if a stellar rookie will continue to produce in their sophomore season? Or, how can you predict if that stellar rookie season was simply a flash in the plan?
Below are four players who all had impressive rookie campaigns, but, as they gear up for their sophomore seasons, you may want to allow them to develop a bit more before picking them up in your upcoming fantasy drafts.
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Rookies Set to Disappoint in Year Two
Jumping straight into the NHL after one AHL season, Kyle Connor was easily one of the most exciting rookies of the 2017-2018 season. The 21-year-old led all rookies with 31 goals and finished fourth amongst first-year players with 57 points. The speedy left-winger showcased high-end skills with the puck and entrenched himself as a complementary piece on the Winnipeg Jets' top line with Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele for much of last season.
So then, why exactly is he on this list? Well, there are certain warning signs that should be considered prior to drafting Connor at his current pre-season Yahoo draft ranking of #96. Skating next to two elite puck distributors for more than half of his ice-time at even strength (57%), Connor's goal total likely was inflated. While last year's success certainly puts him as a front-runner to receive such top minutes once again next season, Winnipeg's numerous high-talent wingers (such as Patrick Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, and top prospect Jack Roslovic) all threaten Connor's place. In addition, the young talent does not offer much in non-scoring categories (just 16 penalty minutes, 18 hits, and 192 shots last year). Finally, Connor finished his rookie campaign with a notably high shooting percentage at 16.1%, a stark difference from his 8.3% shooting percentage in his 20-game cup of coffee in 2016-2017. There's little reason to believe that Kyle Connor won't eventually become a premiere NHL scorer, but selecting him in the eighth or ninth round of upcoming drafts seems a bit risky.
When Danton Heinen burst onto the scene with 33 points (nine goals, 17 assists) in his first 43 games headed into last year's All-Star break, the versatile winger instantly put himself on the fantasy radar. Heinen, who has produced throughout the lower levels of his career (93 points in 81 games at the University of Denver and 44 points in 64 games in his rookie AHL season) quickly became a fixture on the Bruins' checking line. However, Heinen's production proved to be unsustainable as the season progressed and the British Columbian native's ice-time decreased from 15:49 per game in the first half to 14:01 in the final half. Due to the Bruins' extensive options up front (and the arrival of Rick Nash and Ryan Donato), Heinen slid down the lineup and finished the 2017-2018 season with just 14 points (five goals, nine assists) in his final 34 games. While Heinen might eventually become a regular 20-goal scorer, his pre All-Star break scoring boom was certainly vaulted up by a high 14.9% shooting percentage.
With the high volume of talented forwards in Boston this year, Heinen doesn't appear to be entrenched in the team's top nine forward group and certainly won't crack the team's top power play unit any time soon. In addition, Heinen's value is likely hindered by his low peripheral count, registering just 135 shots on goal, 16 penalty minutes, and 45 hits. The 23-year-old forward should blossom into a mainstay on any fantasy roster in the future, but I'm just not convinced that will happen in 2018-2019.
When Jesper Bratt cracked the New Jersey Devils roster out of training camp last season, he was mostly unknown in fantasy circles. Considering Bratt wasn't taken by New Jersey until the 6th round of the 2016 NHL Draft and wasn't exactly ripping up the Swedish Elite League (39 points in 96 games) prior, it was shocking to see the undersized winger post ten points in his first ten NHL games. The Swedish forward flashed great speed and skill with the puck, jumping into a top-six role for the Devils (earning 16:15 of time-on-ice). Bratt arrived at the All-Star break with 30 points (12 goals, 18 assists) in 47 games and certainly garnered attention around the league as a potential Calder candidate. However, as the season progressed, Bratt seemed to wear down from the longer NHL season and finished with just five points (one goal, four assists) in his final 27 games post All-Star Break. As Bratt's production decreased so did his ice time at even strength (13:30) and on the power play.
Bratt should benefit from gaining more NHL experience in his second year, but with so many more intriguing options available at the back end of fantasy drafts, it's probably best to allow the 20-year-old to develop more before considering adding him in this year.
As highlighted with Danton Heinen above, one of the biggest challenges that rookies coming straight from college hockey face is being able to withstand such a dramatic increase in games their rookie season. Alexander Kerfoot, another first-year standout, stepped into the NHL and turned heads with 43 points (19 goals, 24 assists) in 79 games but happened to tail off to in the second part of the season (11 points in 34 games post-All-Star break). Additionally, despite the strong start, Kerfoot failed to cement himself into his team's top six forward group having averaged just 13:27 in ice-time last season. Until Kerfoot can gain more of his coach's trust and grab consistent minutes on the second line behind Nathan MacKinnon, there are just too many other options at center to look to in upcoming drafts.
