Sizing Up The New York Mets Rotation

April 18, 2020

Nick Ritrivi examines the rotation options for the New York Mets heading into the 2020 MLB season for fantasy baseball purposes. Which starting pitchers (SP) might be undervalued and who could be a bust based on preseason draft ADP?

Even before New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, the Mets were looking at fielding a much different starting rotation in 2020. Zack Wheeler departed for the Phillies as a free agent in the off-season. The Mets brought Marcus Stroman in from the Blue Jays at the 2019 trade deadline. In addition, the Mets signed both Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha as free agents on one-year deals for rotational depth.

With Syndergaard undergoing successful Tommy John surgery in late March, he will now miss 12-14 months, assuming there are no setbacks in his recovery. Syndergaard, who had been looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2019 campaign, will not return until sometime in 2021. Despite his 2019 struggles, Syndergaard had the upside to deliver a top-15 starting pitcher season and help anchor the Mets rotation after Jacob deGrom. His loss creates a huge hole in the Mets rotation. It also creates a huge hole for those owners who may have drafted him as an SP2 before the injury occurred and/or was disclosed.

Once the 2020 season gets underway, the Mets will now have a starting rotation that barely resembles their 2019 Opening Day rotation of deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Steven Matz, and Jason Vargas. Below, we will size up the Mets projected 2020 rotation and explore the options the Mets have at the back-end of this new rotation. Some of these back-end rotation options may also serve as fantasy sleepers in deep mixed and NL-only league formats. The first five pitchers are listed in order of their likely spots in the starting rotation at the beginning of the season. The remaining pitchers are listed in order of their expected fantasy value.

Tier One

Tier one is made up of pitchers who are set to stay in the Mets rotation for the entire season, barring injuries. These pitchers are the most relevant on draft-day since they are locks to start the year in the starting rotation.

Jacob deGrom

Not much to discuss here that you don’t already know. Jacob deGrom, the undisputed ace of the Mets, is coming off of a second straight NL Cy Young award season. In 2019, he posted an 11-8 record, 2.43 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 255 strikeouts in 204 IP. He is currently the second pitcher off of most draft boards with an ADP of 7.83, behind only Gerrit Cole.

While wins have been an issue for deGrom over the past two seasons, thanks to a suspect Mets bullpen and poor run support, he remains a lock-down SP1 in all formats. deGrom has completed three consecutive seasons with 200 IP or more. Accordingly, he is a virtual lock for 200 strikeouts (assuming a full season is played in 2020) and league-leading ratios.

Marcus Stroman

With the season-ending injury to Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman now moves up as the number two starter in the Mets 2020 rotation. This will put added pressure on Stroman to perform. Stroman’s role in 2019 with the Mets, following his trade from Toronto, was as the fourth starter behind Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. In 32 starts in 2019, between both New York and Toronto, Stroman compiled 159 strikeouts in 184 1/3 IP while posting a 3.22 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

Stroman’s solid 2019 campaign, was, generally supported by his metrics. That said, some regression in 2020 is likely. In 2019, Stroman allowed only a 4.1% barrel rate and a 5.2-degree launch angle, metrics that were both much better than the MLB league averages. In addition, Stroman saw an increase in his strikeout rate to 20.5% in 2019 (up from 17.1% in 2018).

This was the result of Stroman’s decision to throw fewer sinkers and more sliders and cutters. Of course, this also correlated to a drop in his ground ball rate to 53.9% in 2019, though this figure was still far above the MLB average of 45.4%.

On the flip side, while Stroman did improve his strikeout rate, it still sat below the league average. In addition, though Stroman’s notoriety as a ground ball pitcher will help keep the ball in the yard, it could still adversely impact him. The Mets have a very shoddy infield defense. Peter Alonso and Robinson Cano both posted a negative six Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2019. Furthermore, Amed Rosario, a terrible defensive shortstop, posted a miserable negative 16 DRS in 2019 to go with a negative 0.8 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).

Infield defensive issues could prolong innings, saddle Stroman with higher ratios if many balls fall in for infield hits, and rack up pitch counts. Additionally, Stroman had control issues once he came over to the Mets. With the Mets in 2019, he walked 23 in just 59 2/3 innings pitched. Also, his overall 2019 xFIP of 3.99 suggests he will regress in ERA.

At an ADP of 209, Stroman makes for a fine value pick in all mixed leagues as a back-end fantasy starter. Stroman should give you innings, decent strikeouts and an ERA around 3.80-3.90. In real life, though, there is a steep drop-off from deGrom to Stroman in the Mets rotation. The loss of both Syndergaard and Wheeler, not surprisingly, will be felt by the Mets, particularly when Stroman is matching up against the SP2s on contending teams.

Tier Two

Tier two consists of pitchers who are fighting for a rotation spot. Some of these pitchers may start the season as starters and lose their job mid-season, while others are likely to be among the first replacements for those losing their starting jobs.

Rick Porcello

Penciled in as the Mets number three starter, Rick Porcello is coming off of a horrendous 2019 campaign. In 2019, he posted a 5.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 174 1/3 IP. He allowed 198 hits, including 31 home runs, and only managed 143 strikeouts. Signed to a one-year deal in the off-season for rotational depth, the Mets now must essentially bank on Porcello regaining some of the form that led him to the AL Cy Young in 2016 because of the Noah Syndergaard injury. Whether he can regain such form is very questionable. Porcello's 2019 metrics suggest he will not.

In 2019, Porcello continued the low walk rake consistency we’ve seen throughout his career, posting just a 5.9 BB%, well below the league average of 8.3%. While a positive, this superb control didn’t translate to overall success.

On the negative side, Porcello saw his overall strikeout rate from 2018 (of 23.5%) drop almost five percent to just 18.6% in 2019. In addition, Porcello’s ground ball rate dropped almost six percent to 38.9%, well below the league average. Porcello yielded an overall barrel rate of 9.6%, and a 91.8 mph exit velocity and a ridiculous 23-degree launch angle on his four-seam fastball, his most frequently used pitch.

Further, Porcello’s second most frequently used pitch, his sinker, wasn’t much better. While the launch angle, understandably, was much lower on his sinker, Porcello still yielded an 88.5 mph exit velocity on it, to go with a .305 average hit against it (and xBA of .288). These metrics strongly legitimized his high ERA, WHIP, and horrific HR rate.

If Porcello can utilize his sinker with more frequency than his four-seam fastball, as he did in his 2016 campaign, he may see some modest improvement in the HR area. Though, as stated, the sinker was nothing to write home about last season. Further, the Mets infield defense behind him won’t provide much run-saving ability.

The Mets and fantasy owners should anticipate modest improvement in 2020 from Porcello if he relies less on his four-seamer. This would still mean poor ratios including an ERA somewhere around 4.50-4.70 to go with a 1.20 to 1.30 WHIP, low strikeouts and low win totals.

At an ADP of 387, Porcello will provide deep mixed and NL-only league owners with spot starter or rotational depth value in the event of an injury. Unfortunately for the Mets, however, in real life, Porcello slots into their rotation as a very suspect number three starter.

Steven Matz

One of the great mysteries of the Mets offseason was why they placed Steven Matz into a rotation spot competition with Michael Wacha heading into 2020 spring training. If anything, Matz should have been assured of a rotation spot as the Mets number four starter ahead of both Rick Porcello and Wacha at the beginning camp.

In 2019, Matz posted an 11-10 record, to go with a 4.21 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and 153 strikeouts in 163 1/3 IP. While these numbers aren’t terribly exciting, they are much better than the numbers Porcello and Wacha posted in 2019.

Looking closely at Matz’s 2019 numbers and metrics, we see that, much like Porcello, Matz was victimized by the long ball. He allowed 27 HR in 2019, despite a strong reliance on his sinker (50.6% of pitches thrown) and a modest overall 9.9-degree launch angle allowed. His changeup appeared to be the culprit. Matz threw it 20% of the time, yielding a 12-degree launch angle, a 90 mph exit velocity and .304 xBA.

Less of reliance by Matz on his changeup could help keep the ball in the yard and keep those ratios lower. For example, in his 2016 breakout campaign, in which he posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 132 IP, Matz only utilized the changeup 12% of the time with a higher reliance on his curve, slider, and sinker.

On the bright side, while Matz’s strikeout rate of 22.1% in 2019 was equal to his career average and slightly better than the league average, it was far better than Porcello’s paltry 2019 rate. Additionally, Matz turned it up in the second half of 2019 when he struck out 75 in 79 1/3 IP and posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He continued this trend in the 2020 Grapefruit League when he posted 1.50 ERA, 0.33 WHIP and struck out five in six IP.

If Matz can rely less on his changeup, build off of his solid 2019 second half, and strong, albeit brief, spring training, he could improve his ratios closer in line with his 2019 second half. This could mean an ERA around 3.60-3.70 with a 1.20-1.30 WHIP and a decent number of strikeouts. With an ADP of 289, Matz should return solid value for mixed-league and NL-only league owners. Given his upside, Matz is a far better option for fantasy owners (and the Mets) than Porcello and Wacha.

Michael Wacha

Heading into spring training Michael Wacha was primarily viewed as a spot starter/waiver wire option for owners in very deep mixed and NL-only leagues. Although he was publicly competing for a starting rotation spot with Matz, most fantasy owners were largely, and justifiably, ignoring Wacha as a viable fantasy option. With the injury to Noah Syndergaard, the initial outlook on Wacha’s fantasy viability doesn’t change very much.

Although he now has a rotation spot in hand, Wacha is really only worth a look in very deep leagues as a waiver wire/spot starter option. That said, if he can get off to a solid start in 2020 and maintain the improved velocity we saw during the truncated Grapefruit League season, his value and outlook may increase.

Much like Rick Porcello and Steven Matz, Wacha was victimized by the long ball in 2019. In just 126 2/3 IP, Wacha allowed an incredible 26 HR. This led to an overall record of 6-7, a 4.76 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in 29 games started for the Cardinals. The Mets, always in the market for mediocre ground ball pitchers with low strikeout rates susceptible to the long ball, jumped at the chance to sign Wacha in the offseason to a one-year deal.

Wacha is, essentially, a younger version of Porcello. In 2019, Wacha posted a mere 18.5% strikeout rate, translating to just 104 strikeouts. In addition, while his 49.5% ground ball rate in 2019 was better than league average, it didn’t translate to pitching success, much like Porcello. With the Mets porous infield defense behind him (discussed earlier), Wacha’s ground ball tendencies will likely not help him fare much better in 2020.

There’s not much to like here from a fantasy standpoint. While Wacha had a strong start to his career in which he posted a 26-14 record and 3.21 ERA from 2013-2015, that success was half a decade ago. Since 2015, Wacha has suffered oblique, shoulder and knee injuries, including a recent shoulder injury that ended his 2019 campaign early in September. From a fantasy and real-life standpoint, Matz, David Peterson, Seth Lugo, and even Robert Gsellman are the better starter options in terms of potential upside and health.

Tier Three

Tier three pitchers are those who have a chance to start for the Mets this year, but none of the pitchers in tier three are likely to begin the season in the starting rotation. These pitchers likely need strong performances in the minor leagues or out of the bullpen to force their way into the rotation. They are most useful as waiver wire pickups mid-season, with the exception of Seth Lugo, who offers value in leagues that reward holds and who can help with ratios and strikeout totals.

David Peterson

David Peterson is going undrafted in mixed and NL-only re-draft leagues. This makes sense considering that Peterson, the Mets top draft pick in 2017, was originally scheduled to begin the season at Triple-A. However, with Noah Syndergaard's injury, Michael Wacha now moves into the starting rotation, leaving a hole at long relief and in the team's emergency starting pitching depth.

Let’s be honest. Things could get ugly real fast for the Mets with Rick Porcello and Wacha in the Mets rotation if their struggles carry over into 2020. Because of this rotational volatility, and a condensed season which could mean more double-headers and fewer days off, Peterson could claim a permanent “sixth” rotation spot. He would serve as a frequent spot starter or a permanent starter if either Porcello or Wacha get removed from the rotation or if the Mets suffer another injury.

In 2019, Peterson went 3-6 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 24 starts at Double-A. In 2018, over two levels, Peterson posted a solid 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 115 strikeouts over 128 IP. Further, during 2020 spring training with the Mets, Peterson impressed team officials by posting a 1.50 ERA and striking out six in six innings pitched. If Peterson begins the season with the Mets, he immediately gains value in deep mixed and NL-only leagues.

Fantasy owners in such leagues would be much better served using a late-round pick or waiver claim on Peterson, before Porcello and Wacha. In dynasty leagues, Peterson should already be rostered. Based on his pedigree, upside and potential to claim a permanent rotation spot, Peterson could be a legitimate fantasy sleeper based upon how the Mets utilize him.

Seth Lugo

Before Noah Syndergaard’s season-ending injury, Steven Matz and Michael Wacha were in a competition for the fifth starting slot. There was talk, however, that neither pitcher would actually win the role. The Mets were, instead, contemplating using Seth Lugo as an opener in the fifth rotation slot and moving Matz and Wacha to the bullpen.

Noah Syndergaard’s injury does not take such an option off the table for the Mets. Although Matz and Wacha both move into the rotation by default, the potential to use Lugo as an opener in 2020 remains in play for the same reasons that David Peterson could be moved into the rotation. Namely, frequent doubleheaders due to a condensed season resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the potential ineffectiveness of Rick Porcello and/or Wacha, or an injury.

In 2019, Lugo posted a very impressive 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP with 104 strikeouts in 80 IP. He was in the top 10% of the league in strikeout and walk rates, and his .183 xBA was in the top two percent in all of baseball. Lugo’s curve spin is one of the best in baseball. His four-seam fastball over the past two seasons, which has increased in velocity to 94.5 mph (almost three mph faster than in 2017), has been virtually unhittable.

Lugo did not start any games in 2019. However, in 2018, Lugo started five games posting a 3.91 ERA and a 4.50 strikeout to walk rate in 23 innings. In 2018, where the bulk of his usage was out of the bullpen, he posted an overall 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 103 strikeouts in 101 1/3 IP. Exemplified by his 2018 numbers, Lugo has been historically more effective out of the bullpen. As a result, the Mets have opted to primarily utilize Lugo as a reliever for the past two seasons due to the team’s suspect bullpen.

Poor starts to the 2020 season by Wacha and/or Porcello may shift the immediate needs of the team to the rotation and away from the pen. This rings true if the bullpen issues that have plagued the Mets are resolved through the Dellin Betances acquisition and bounce backs from Jeurys Familia and Edwin Diaz.

Such a scenario could result in Lugo finally getting his well-documented wish to become a full-time starter. As such, Lugo should be on all mixed and NL-only league radars. Of course, even if Lugo does not ascend to the rotation, his fantasy appeal still justifies his current 359 ADP. Owners can utilize Lugo to help with holds, ratios, and strikeouts.

Robert Gsellman

Much like Seth Lugo, inserting Robert Gsellman into the Mets rotation could weaken the Mets suspect bullpen, unless Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, and Edwin Diaz can bounce back. If they can help shore up the bullpen, the Mets may turn to Gsellman if the Mets starters suffer from injuries or Rick Porcello and/or Michael Wacha prove to be ineffective.

In 2019, Gsellman was used strictly out of the pen. He produced a 4.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and struck out 60 in 63 2/3 IP. While these numbers don’t jump off the page, Gsellman did induce very weak contact in 2019. Impressively, he allowed only a 3.7% overall barrel rate and overall exit velocity of 85.3 mph, both figures which were in the top four percent of all of MLB. He also saw a measurable increase in velocity on most of his pitches and more heavily relied on his effective slider in 2019. If these positive trends continue, he could see positive regression in both ERA and WHIP in 2020.

Although it stands to reason that if the Mets are going to the bullpen to address starting needs, they will likely go to Lugo first. But, given the potential need for starters due to the structure of a condensed season, Gsellman could get the call. As a result, fantasy owners should keep an eye on Gsellman if he eventually gets moved to the rotation. He could offer solid value as a waiver wire claim once the season gets underway if owners miss out on Lugo.

Walter Lockett

Walter Lockett will make the Mets major league team if rosters are expanded to 30 players and if the Mets deem him valuable enough to hold on to. If Lockett fails to make the team, he will be likely be waived since he is out of minor league options.

In nine appearances last season for the Mets, including four starts, Lockett posted a very unimpressive 8.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in 22 2/3 IP. Lockett only struck out 16 and his minor league numbers also show that he offers little value in the strikeout department. In eight minor league seasons, Lockett averaged under seven strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

His 2019 MLB numbers, beyond his poor ratios, further show that he was unable to pitch effectively against major league talent. His overall xBA allowed in 2019 was .311. Moreover, hitters teed-off on his primary pitch, his four-seam fastball (.390 xBA allowed), which generated just a 3.8% whiff rate.

For the Mets to entertain giving Lockett a permanent rotation spot, they would need to suffer from a number of pitching injuries. They would also need to forego using an opener and/or Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman as their fifth starter. As a result, it is more than likely that Lockett will be regulated to middle relief duties for the Mets in 2020. Accordingly, if he makes the Mets roster, Lockett offers very little in terms of fantasy appeal and should be ignored in all fantasy formats.

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