Six Undervalued Draft Targets for Mixed Leagues

February 20, 2020

Nick Ritrivi looks at six undervalued MLB players to target in drafts for the 2020 fantasy baseball season. These players can be considered sleepers for your 5x5 mixed-league drafts.

Heading into 2020, there are a number of players who had poor 2019 campaigns that should bounce back strong. Some of these players are presently undervalued by fantasy owners for one reason or another.

In this article, I'll identify a few such players who should outperform their current ADP in 2020. While each of these players carry some risk, the potential return on investment makes them attractive options in the middle-to-late rounds of drafts.

I will give you a quick snippet of information on the player in a BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) format, with some meatier analysis to follow. If you're the type that finds yourself thinking TLDR while reading detailed analysis, then the first section is all you need! But you're already here, and are undoubtedly looking for ways to waste more time at the day job, so please, read on!

Corey Kluber (SP, TEX)

BLUF: Kluber’s usual slow start last April was immediately followed by a fractured right arm in May and subsequent oblique strain ending his season after only 35.2 innings pitched.  A healthy 2020 for Kluber in Texas should return owners SP2/3 value at a discounted ADP of 97.

Rationale: Kluber came into 2019 as the ace of the Indians, having finished third in the AL Cy Young voting in 2018. He was coming off of his fifth consecutive season having thrown over 200 innings and striking out over 200 batters. Despite this consistent streak of dominance, a 2-3 record, 5.80 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts in just 35.2 innings pitched in 2019 has some owners believing he’s nearing the end of his useful life as a fantasy asset. This is not the case. Kluber is a notoriously slow starter. Before he was able to get going in 2019, one freak injury combined with an oblique strain ended his season. Despite a small sample size before the injuries, Kluber showed the same fastball velocity, with only slight declines in velocity on his sinker, cutter, and curve (less than 1 MPH), in 2019 when compared to 2018. Additionally, Kluber yielded a lower overall exit velocity in 2019 versus 2018 and his SwStk rate of 12.3% was in line with his 2018 figure of 12.0%.

Turning 34 in April, we should not expect Kluber to throw another 200 IP season in 2020, especially having been sidelined since last May. That said, it is not out of the question to expect Kluber to rebound with a 160-to-180 IP campaign. Additionally, Kluber has strong career stats against the four AL West teams that he will be facing with more frequency now that he is with the Rangers. While the new Globe Life Field presents some uncertainty with regard to how it will play for pitchers, it has, roughly, similar dimensions to Progressive Field in Cleveland. As such, Kluber's new home stadium may not have much of an impact on his performance.

Owners looking to add Kluber to their rotation as a potential SP2 at a discounted round eight price tag (in 12-team league drafts) should do so. With nothing from his brief 2019 campaign suggesting an immediate drop-off in skill set, Kluber should bounce-back with numbers more closely aligned to his 2018 totals, albeit pro-rated to account for roughly 20-40 fewer IP.

Justin Upton (OF, LAA)

BLUF: Upton only hit 12 home runs in an injury-plagued 2019. Assuming he can stay healthy in 2020, Upton should yield numbers at or near his 2018 production, minus the steals. Owners should take advantage of the 228 ADP price tag.

Rationale: 2019 turned out to be a brutal season for Upton as a result of turf toe and subsequent knee issues he dealt with. He managed only 256 plate appearances hitting just 12 HR to go with 40 RBI and a .215 batting average. Despite the disappointing season, signs do not evidence a sudden decline in his hitting skills at age 32. His 2019 HR rate and Zone Contact % was in line with prior seasons. In addition, Upton’s launch angle of 18.5 degrees was significantly higher than 2018 and his exit velocity on FB/LD of 93 MPH was on par with Nolan Arenado’s. While his strikeout rate did increase from 2018, his 2019 BABIP was .261 suggesting that his overall .215 AVG was worse than it should have been.

Prior to 2019, Upton had been able to avoid the injury bug, logging over 600 plate appearances every season since 2011. Assuming he has overcome the injuries that plagued him last season, a repeat of his 2018 numbers including a .257 AVG, 30 HR and 85 RBI in a much improved Angels’ lineup is likely. Of course, owners should not expect much in terms of steals from Upton going forward.

Matthew Boyd (SP, DET)

BLUF: Elite strikeouts without the high price tag. If he can reduce his Fly-Ball% and, therefore, limit home runs, improvement in ERA will follow. Potential as an SP3 exists at a low-cost if he can keep the ball in the yard.

Rationale: Despite posting a career-high 238 strikeouts in just 185.1 innings pitched in 2019, with a 1.23 WHIP, Boyd is still viewed as an SP4/5 in 12-15 team leagues due to his HR issues. The long ball is Boyd’s kryptonite, exacerbated last season in which he allowed 39 HR leading to a 4.56 ERA and 9-12 record in 32 starts.

There are some encouraging signs for Boyd. First, his xFIP in 2019 was 3.88, an improvement on a 4.72 xFIP in 2018. In addition, his strikeout totals which were, in part, supported by a 14.0% SwStk that was greatly improved from 2018, appear legitimate. Of course, the bad news is that his HR frequency actually worsened as the season went on and, not surprisingly, his second-half ERA was 5.51 compared to a first-half ERA of 3.87.

At a present ADP of 168, Boyd certainly enters 2020 drafts undervalued.  A less risk-averse owner should jump on Boyd at this price tag and enjoy elite Ks at a discount. While you may need to counter Boyd’s inflated ERA with a more boring ratio-type pitcher such as Kyle Hendricks, the elite K ceiling makes him a great option around rounds 11 through 14. If Boyd can mitigate his HR/FB issues, a big "if", his ERA would fall closer in line with last season’s xFIP making him a legitimate SP2/3 at a fraction of the cost.

Hunter Dozier (3B/OF, KC)

BLUF: Had a breakout season in 2019, but is still undervalued heading into 2020. Peripherals and pedigree support last season’s breakout. This season may be the best last chance to get in on Dozier at a discounted draft price.

Rationale: Despite hitting .279 with 26 home runs, 84 RBI and a .348 on-base percentage in 2019, Dozier still has an undervalued ADP of 183 heading into 2020. Owners may be reluctant to buy into Dozier’s breakout given his past MLB struggles or believe that it may have been the result of a juiced ball. His peripheral stats, however, do support his 2019 accomplishments and point to more of the same going forward. As a first-round pick by the Royals in 2013, the pedigree was there. His breakout just took longer than expected.

In 2019, Dozier’s numbers were supported by his 16.7 degree launch angle, a 94.2 MPH exit velocity on FB/LD which was equal to that of Mookie Betts, a 42.6 hard-hit % and a significant reduction in his ground ball rates from years past. In addition, Dozier’s splits were consistent in both halves of the season and against both lefties and righties.

Owners looking for value at third base and in the outfield should target Dozier if he falls in drafts due to the belief that 2019 totals were a one-off headed for regression. This season could be the last chance to get Dozier at a reduced draft price or, in the case of keeper and dynasty formats, at a low-trade cost from skeptical current owners.

Garrett Hampson (2B/OF, COL)

BLUF: Elite speed. Overall, not a great 2019 from Hampson, but his September was quite impressive. A full-time role could lead to 30-40 steals with a potential five-category impact.

Rationale: While Hampson had a disappointing 2019 campaign hitting just .247-8-27-40-15 in 299 at-bats, the 25-year old seemed to figure things out late in the season. In September, Hampson hit .318 with five home runs and nine steals in just 88 at-bats. With elite speed in the MLB 99^th percentile, we could easily see 30-to-40 steals from Hampson as a starter during the course of a full season.

With an ADP of 172, he is currently undervalued given his stolen base potential. A career minor league average of .311 suggests September was no fluke. In addition, with Coors Field as his home, he projects as a 15-20 HR hitter over a full season.

Those that miss out on Hampson in redraft league drafts should, nevertheless, continue to monitor him as the season progresses. If he struggles early or is sent down to Triple-A to open 2020 due to roster constraints in Colorado, be ready to pounce on an impatient owner not willing to wait for him to right the ship or return. This strategy particularly holds true for keeper and dynasty league owners since fantasy returns on Hampson, beyond what he may produce in 2020, could be elite in 2021 and beyond.

Miles Mikolas (SP, STL)

BLUF: Drafting Mikolas is not for the faint of heart. He is a deep-league or NL-only option due to elbow injury. A horrible March and April impacted his overall 2019 numbers. A solid second-half in 2019 suggests a bounce-back in 2020. He can be a cheap source of wins, as well as ERA and WHIP ratios if he returns from injury. Just watch those home runs.

Rationale: Wait, what? Why is Mikolas on this list with his elbow barking? Well, before the flexor-tendon elbow issue was disclosed, signs pointed to a bounce-back in 2020. Specifically, in the second half of 2019, Mikolas posted a 3.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 84 IP. Additionally, Mikolas maintained his elite walk-rate capabilities all season. 2019 even saw his strikeout rate climb to 18.8% from 18.1% in 2018, although nobody will ever mistake Mikolas for a strikeout pitcher. On the downside, Mikolas did allow 26 HR last season, 10 more than in 2018. While Mikolas did suffer from the long ball, those struggles came largely on his slider and sinker, perhaps due to the new ball used the MLB. Of note, his pitch velocities remained similar to those in 2018, except for his slider which dipped one MPH (which also may explain why he allowed seven more HR off of his slider in 2019 than in 2018).

With the recent news that Mikolas will miss the start of the 2020 season due to his elbow, his current ADP of 224 will plummet. The good news is that an MRI conducted on February 16 revealed no structural damage. However, Mikolas was placed on a no-pitch regiment until mid-March following a PRP injection on February 18. This will impact his availability to begin the season and owners will, justifiably, shy away from him in drafts. As such, he will likely be left for the waiver wire in shallow formats or the very latest rounds in deep and NL-only leagues.

Assuming Mikolas can return healthy sometime in May, his 2020 outlook falls somewhere between his 2018 breakout and 2019 disappointment. In other words, numbers similar to the ones he put up in the second half of last season in terms of elite WHIP, solid ERA and modest win totals adjusted for a late-May season start.

Provided you have the room to carry him through April and part of May on a deep bench or in an IL roster spot, Mikolas is worth a look. Of course, if the injury has been downplayed by the Cardinals and/or ultimately proves to be far more serious, you haven’t lost much in terms of a late draft pick or a waiver claim.

Other Players to Consider:

• Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, BOS)
• Edwin Diaz (RP, NYM)
• Andrew McCutchen (OF, PHI)
• Joey Lucchesi (SP, SD)
• Yandy Diaz (3B, TB)

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