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Brandon analyzes Miles Sanders and J.K. Dobbins and tells you which running back you should pick in 2023 fantasy football drafts.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Miles Sanders and J.K. Dobbins for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans alike with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is the Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team.
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends. It also helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to see which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of RBs Miles Sanders and J.K. Dobbins and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
RB19 - ADP: 48th Overall
Sanders turned in what proved to be a career year in 2022, as he hit career highs across the board (259 carries for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns). He also managed to stay healthy throughout the year, playing a full schedule for only the second time in his career. But the interesting thing was the continuous decline for Sanders in the receiving game (20 receptions) that coincided with the emergence of Jalen Hurts. With only 60 targets over the last two years, Sanders's appeal as a back with upside in PPR formats has waned.
However, what has gone right for him is the change in offensive philosophy for the Eagles, switching to a very run-heavy scheme. Being number one in the NFL in positive game script in 2022 allowed them to be third in run plays per game (31.9). Sanders was able to capitalize on this as he finished top 10 in carries, yards, and touchdowns. But his lack of usage as a receiver capped his upside in PPR, limiting him to finish as RB21 in fantasy PPG (12.7).
Sanders used his big year on the ground to cash in and move to Carolina as the new lead back for the Panthers. The Panthers will have an entirely new look to their offense in 2023 as Frank Reich has taken over as head coach. The team also has a new face of the franchise in rookie quarterback Bryce Young. With a rookie QB comes a typical desire to lean on the running game to offset the pressure. This should lead to Sanders being a heavily-used back, especially early on during the season, as the offense works to gel.
But how will Sanders perform going from an offensive line in Philadelphia that is perennially one of the best in the league, to a unit in Carolina that is projected to be a middle-tier line? If his efficiency as a runner takes a hit, do not expect a sudden uptick in usage as a receiver to help soften the blow. This all adds up to Sanders being a low-end RB2 to high-end RB3 by the end of the 2023 season.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
RB20 - ADP: 52nd Overall
Dobbins was another case in a long history of running backs coming back from an ACL injury and struggling with performance the following year. After missing the first two games of 2022, Dobbins returned for four weeks in Week 3, and you could tell that he was not ready. Playing in less than 50% of the snaps in each game, Dobbins could only manage one weekly finish above RB46 (RB10 in Week 4). This prompted the Ravens and Dobbins to shut things down again as he missed the next six games.
Once he returned, he flashed that upside that we have seen in the past. From Weeks 14-17, he led the league in rushing yards (397). However, due to a lack of usage in the passing game (one reception) and only one touchdown, he could only muster 11.8 fantasy PPG over that span (RB26). It was truly a lost year for Dobbins, and one that some fantasy managers could likely hold against him heading into the 2023 season.
Going into the 2023 season, Dobbins is now a year removed from the injury. That's not to say there aren't negatives circling him at the moment. The team has a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken. He is expected to implement a more pass-friendly system that will bring the Ravens out of the Stone Age that we have been accustomed to seeing. Additionally, Dobbins has just recently been removed from the PUP as he has made clear his desire to obtain an extension to remain with the team beyond this season. If he can return to the team focused and ready, there is a light at the end of the tunnel regarding his potential value for 2023.
This new offense could lead to running lanes opening up, something we did not see a season ago when the Ravens led the league in facing stacked front defenses (35.9%). Dobbins saw 7.2 defenders in the box on average which was second at the position. Now with defenses potentially having to defend a more vertical passing attack, Dobbins will get to see more space behind an offensive line that could be one of the best in the league. With a healthy season and offensive efficiency, Dobbins could put together a solid 2023 as an RB2 for fantasy managers.
Fantasy Football Verdict
With these two running backs falling in the proverbial "running back dead-zone", they both are looked at as afterthoughts in drafts. Couple that with the fact that both are viewed as one-dimensional backs who bring more value in standard or half-point PPR leagues than they do in full-point PPR formats. When it comes down to deciding on either of these two running backs, you want to grasp a hold of any upside possible.
With that in mind, I would choose J.K. Dobbins. I feel more confident in the Ravens' offense as opposed to the Panthers' situation with a rookie QB learning the ropes. With neither Dobbins nor Sanders presenting much upside as pass catchers, it comes down to who may find the end zone more. I believe that will be Dobbins. He should be the player that fantasy managers select if presented with the decision during drafts.
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