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Keenan Allen or Amari Cooper, who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football? Andrew Ball analyzes the two NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick in your upcoming draft.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Keenan Allen vs. Amari Cooper for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and identify how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team. Let's get into it.
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Breakdown Of Fantasy Football ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft. ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Incorporating ADP Into Your Draft Strategy
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of WRs Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
ADP Breakdown
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
WR16 - ADP: 39th Overall
At 31 years old, Keenan Allen is entering Year 11 in the National Football League. It seems like he's been around far longer than that, and yet his play tells us the opposite story. In 10 games in 2022, the veteran snagged 66 balls for 752 yards and four touchdowns. In reality, it was more like nine games. He played under 35% of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 7. Despite the injury woes, both his receptions per game and yards per game ranked third over the course of his career. In his healthy games, he ranked fourth in fantasy scoring among wide receivers.
If you had any stock in Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, or Mike Williams last season, you felt nauseous watching the Chargers' offense. Even when the trio was healthy, the ball was not pushed down the field. Herbert averaged his lowest yards gained per pass attempt, adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, and yards gained per completion.
Can new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore come in and save the day? The Cowboys, in three seasons under Moore, ranked sixth (27.1 PPG), first (31.2), and fourth (27.5) in points per game. I removed 2020 from the equation when Dak Prescott only played five games, but the offense still averaged a respectable 24.7 points per game that season. Sending the ball flying through the air has been the theme of training camp in Los Angeles.
Allen recently suggested that he won't be just an interior receiver this season, instead operating both in the slot and outside. He sees himself as CeeDee Lamb in this new offense. If he stays healthy, we may be looking up at the end of the season to Keenan Allen as a WR1.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
WR19 - ADP: 43rd Overall
There wasn't a lot of excitement surrounding Amari Cooper in fantasy football in 2022. Yet, he finished the season as the WR10 in PPR scoring, posting 78 catches for 1,160 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns. This year, he's still not the most exciting draft pick, but there's reason to be optimistic about the 29-year-old repeating his performance.
In the time Jacoby Brissett was the starting quarterback (while Deshaun Watson served his suspension), Cooper was the WR8. His production tailed off slightly with Watson under center, as the new member of the Browns learned the offense. Watson has proven he can support top wide receivers from his time in Houston (see DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller) and may have just needed some time to shake off the rust last season. Cooper is the guy, despite the addition of Elijah Moore.
The popular theory is that the Browns' offense will shift to a more pass-oriented game. Despite Kevin Stefanski's reputation as a run-first coach, Cleveland threw the ball more than they ran last season, although it was nearly a 50/50 split. With the departure of Kareem Hunt, some believe Stefanski will let Watson cook.
Despite a robust target share, a majority of Cooper's production came at home. The Browns had an extra road game in 2022, and the numbers weren't even close.
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | |
| Home (8 games) | 80 | 49 | 677 | 5 |
| Road (9 games) | 52 | 29 | 483 | 4 |
He did have two boom games on the road last season (8/113/2 in Week 11 and 3/105/2 in Week 17). If you take out those two performances, he tallied a measly 18 catches for 265 yards and zero scores in seven contests. Cooper has been inconsistent in his production dating back to his days in Oakland and Dallas. The good news is that the Browns have an extra home game in 2023.
Fantasy Football Verdict
There are reasons to be excited about the prospects of the passing games in both Cleveland and Los Angeles. The respective top wide receivers, Cooper and Allen, should benefit. Cooper will deliver boom weeks and lead you to a win, but will also disappear when you need him the most. The consistency of Allen wins out, although the argument is a lot closer in non-PPR formats.
You should feel good about having either as your WR2 in standard-sized leagues. If you decide to take two running backs and a top-tier quarterback to start your draft, snagging Keenan Allen as your consolation prize WR1 is not a bad option.
In best ball formats where you can better afford Cooper pulling a Houdini, he is the better pick.
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