X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

Seeing The Future, Part 1: A Look At This Year's NBA Rookie Class

With most fantasy playoffs in full swing, and articles all over the place with regards to waiver pickups, stream targets and playoff match-up analysis, I figured it'd be a good time to instead take a look with an eye on the future.

2017-2018's rookie class was one of the most exciting in recent memory, and I'm going to be going over the future outlook down the road, starting with some of the bigger names in this draft class.

Let's begin with with the front-runners for Rookie of the Year.

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Will Priester (@ChiefJustice06) from RotoGrinders leads the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with his exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

Simmons has lived up to the hype and then some, posting a phenomenal season with top 60 value in standard 8-cat leagues (and top 20(!) in punt FT% builds). He has shown generational ball handling skills, especially for someone of that size, and has been the second best player on a playoff team on the rise.

What's more amazing is that Simmons has done this without any semblance of a shot. An astounding 92% of his shot attempts have come either at the rim or the short mid-range, which makes it all the more crazier that Simmons has been this productive when opponents can sag off him defensively due to the nonexistent threat of his shooting.

Player Comparison: Young LeBron James

The easiest and laziest comparison is a young LeBron. LeBron came into the league as a gifted play-making big with a suspect shot, a generational passer for someone of his size and strength. While LeBron wasn't a good shooter when he entered the league 15 years ago, he at least attempted to shoot, with 42% of his shots coming from either long mid-range or behind the arc.

It took LeBron 8 or so years to eventually become a dangerous shooter, and while it'll be hard pressed for Simmons to get to that level, there is a decent chance that he will develop somewhat of a shot down the road. The passing and play-making might be even more refined than James was at this age, so if Simmons is able to become even a 33% 3-point shooter, he will be absolutely lethal.

Ceiling: Top 30 near term, first round long term

Simmons is already close to an elite fantasy guy, and his game translates exceptionally well. In a punt FT% build, he will already be returning close to first round value next year, especially considering how valuable his out of position assists and steals are for that particular build. Even without a shot, he will be a linchpin of that build for years to come.

If he's able to develop a shot at all and become a better free-throw shooter, look out - he could end up fighting for the first overall pick a few years down the road.

 

Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz

The other contender for Rookie of the Year, Mitchell has been amazing this season, becoming the go-to scorer for a legitimate playoff team that has still played better than its record suggests. Mitchell has already been a top-60 player this year, and this includes his slow start to the season as the Jazz were still breaking in their new rookie. He's been absolutely electric leading the offense of a team that desperately needed it.

Player Comparison: James Harden

By now, everyone's seen the per 36 comparisons for Mitchell's season versus James Harden at the same age, but here it is again for reference:

Harden:

.436FG% .349 3PT% .843FT% 4.2REB 2.9AST 1.5 STL 0.4BLK 1.7TO

Mitchell:

.436FG% .348 3PT% .842FT% 3.9REB 3.9AST 1.6 STL 0.4BLK 3.0TO

That's incredible. Mitchell is already taking on more ball-handling responsibilities than Harden did commandeering OKC's second unit at the time, and it's reasonable to expect that aspect of his game to improve as he gets older.

Ceiling: Top 40 short term, first round long term

The Don is absolutely an all-star in the making, and he's already a great fantasy player who should slot comfortably into the top 40 next season. The biggest I believe that Mitchell has first round upside, regardless if he develops his play-making to the level James Harden has, is his 1.5 per game steal rate as a rookie. A large part making up the difference between first round and second round elite point guards is steals, as the guys who sit or have sat in the first round (Curry, Westbrook, Harden, Wall, CP3) all possess steal rates above 1.5, while guys like Lillard and Irving who are great but sit just outside the first round have had rates below 1.0.

Mitchell is already at that 1.5 mark as a rookie, and could have peak seasons close to 2. He's already going to be a comfortable 20+ ppg scorer next season, and if he is able to get his assists up to something like 6+ down the road, that could very well be the basis of a first round skillset.

 

Jayson Tatum

Tatum opened the season fast, posting insane efficiency for a rookie off unsustainable 3-point shooting. His shooting has since petered out a bit since that scorching start, and his output over the last 3 months has languished outside the top 100. He's still playing significant minutes for a contending team, which is great for a rookie who is still just 19 years old.

Player Comparison: Gordon Hayward

The fantasy skill-set is almost identical to Hayward, and it is easy to see Tatum developing into a similar type of player as Hayward, except a lot quicker than Gordon did. It took Gordon until his age 24 season before he developed into a borderline superstar and top 40 fantasy player, and it's reasonable to expect Tatum to reach that level by his age 21 season. The mix of good efficiency, coupled with across the board production won't make him a linchpin of any specific build, but a glue guy that can slot in a multitude of different ones.

Ceiling: Top 70 short term, top 20 long term

The one thing that could hold Tatum back from reaching a higher ceiling in fantasy is a lack of defensive stats. Tatum is only posting 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks this season, well below the types of numbers most top 20 and up guys put up in at least one of those categories. Hayward jumped to 1.4 steals in his 4th season, which is one of the main reason why he vaulted into an elite fantasy guy, and we need to see Tatum make a similar kind of jump to reach his potential. Tatum's ceiling would look something like 2 3s, with a steal and a block, which is elite production worthy of an early pick.

 

Lonzo Ball

Despite suffering through an injury riddled rookie year, Lonzo has quietly been a top-70 guy in standard builds and a ridiculous top-20 value in both punt FT% and punt FG% builds. He has one of the most unique, fantasy friendly games we have seen in a long time, and while the concerns regarding his percentages are a legitimate concern, it's a lot less so from a fantasy standpoint as you can easily punt one or both of those stats.

Player Comparison: Draymond Green

This comparison makes no sense in real life, but in fantasy there couldn't be a more perfect match. Draymond has a very similar skill-set, providing across the board production while  hurting you in the %s, but Draymond's percentages are not nearly as bad as what Lonzo posted this season, and as Lonzo develops, we can expect him to jump to a similar level of efficiency as well at some point in his career. Draymond gets you out of position assists and steals for a big man, while Lonzo gets you out of position rebounds and blocks for a guard. This is the kind of thing that makes fantasy basketball more interesting than other sports, 2 completely different players in real life can have almost identical skill-sets in our world.

Ceiling: Top 30 short term, Top 10 value in punt builds

As early as next season, Lonzo will already be a top 20 value for punt FT% and punt FG% builds, and soon, he can easily find himself returning top 10. Right now, with his low volume, he won't hurt as much in non-punt builds but the concern is as his volume ramps up, he will become a bigger drag in those categories and become purely a punt guy. There will be a year or 2 window before his efficiency catches up a bit that he will only really be viable at his ADP for those specific punt builds, but as his career progresses, we can expect him to be an insane fantasy player and remain one of the most unique players in the game today.

 

Check back next week for another back of rookies as we move on with our analysis!

 

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Clarkson7 hours ago

Out At Least A Week
Kyle Kuzma7 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Jamal Murray7 hours ago

Won't Return On Friday Night
Giannis Antetokounmpo7 hours ago

Anticipated To Play Versus Cleveland
Puka Nacua8 hours ago

Shot To Play Week 9
Jordan Love9 hours ago

Tracking To Play In Week 9
Stephen Curry11 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Yves Missi11 hours ago

Expected To Take The Court Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns11 hours ago

Available On Friday
Eric Comrie12 hours ago

Faces Blue Jackets Friday
Daniel Theis12 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Friday
David Savard12 hours ago

Sits Out Practice For Maintenance Purposes
De'Anthony Melton12 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jordan Hawkins12 hours ago

Expected To Play Friday
Alexander Romanov12 hours ago

Ready To Play Friday
Al Horford12 hours ago

Resting Against Charlotte
Evgeni Malkin12 hours ago

Takes Maintenance Day On Friday
Andrew Wiggins12 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Matchup With Houston
Rose Namajunas12 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
D'Angelo Russell12 hours ago

Will Suit Up Versus Toronto
Devon Levi12 hours ago

Returns To Sabres Crease
Clayton Kershaw12 hours ago

To Undergo Two Surgeries
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Available Against Toronto
Erin Blanchfield12 hours ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Lowe12 hours ago

Rays Pick Up Club Option On Brandon Lowe
Ryan Hartman12 hours ago

Rejoins Wild Lineup Friday
Zach LaVine12 hours ago

Will Play Against Brooklyn
12 hours ago

Nick Martinez Headed To Free Agency
Erik Cernak12 hours ago

Available On Friday
Marc-Andre Barriault12 hours ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Brent Suter12 hours ago

Inks Extension With Cincinnati
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Out Again On Friday Night
CJ McCollum12 hours ago

Out At Least Two Weeks
13 hours ago

Yankees, Mets Among Teams In Battle For Juan Soto
Anthony Black13 hours ago

Starting Versus Cleveland
Franz Wagner13 hours ago

Cleared For Friday Night
Herbert Jones13 hours ago

To Miss A Significant Amount Of Time With Shoulder Injury
Marc-Andre Barriault13 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Blake Snell13 hours ago

Opts Out Of Deal With San Francisco
Desmond Bane13 hours ago

Won't Face The 76ers
Josh Jacobs13 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Drake Maye14 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Tyler Boyd14 hours ago

Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd Listed As Questionable
Tyjae Spears14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Calvin Ridley14 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Trevin Giles14 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Noah Fant14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Brian Robinson Jr.14 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Mike Malott14 hours ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Dallas Goedert14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
DK Metcalf14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Zach Benson15 hours ago

Could Play Next Week
Jani Hakanpaa15 hours ago

And Connor Dewar Sent On Conditioning Stint
Dmitri Voronkov15 hours ago

Ready For Season Debut Friday
Jordan Love15 hours ago

Questionable Vs. Lions
Mathew Barzal15 hours ago

Getting Tests Done For Upper-Body Injury
Vladimir Tarasenko15 hours ago

Ready To Go For Saturday
Mark Stone15 hours ago

Misses Practice Due To Birth Of Child
Puka Nacua16 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Week 9
Will Levis17 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
David Njoku17 hours ago

Good To Go For Week 9
Bucky Irving17 hours ago

Absent During Friday's Practice
David Njoku17 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
Adam Thielen17 hours ago

Doubtful For Week 9
Jonathon Brooks17 hours ago

Not Expected To Play In Week 9
Tee Higgins17 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Sunday
Tyreek Hill18 hours ago

Expected To Play In Week 9
Tomás Nosek20 hours ago

Tomas Nosek Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
Leon Draisaitl21 hours ago

Leads Oilers To Victory With Three-Point Effort
Martin Necas21 hours ago

Registers Four Points In Dominant Win
Alex Ovechkin21 hours ago

Bags Three Points In Thursday's Win
21 hours ago

Royals Decline Option On Adam Frazier
Sidney Crosby21 hours ago

Drags Penguins Back On Track
21 hours ago

Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer Headed To Free Agency
William Nylander21 hours ago

Pots Two Goals Versus Seattle
21 hours ago

Milwaukee Declines Option On Wade Miley
NHL21 hours ago

Will Smith Scores First Career Goals
Lucas Giolito21 hours ago

Staying In Boston
Chris Stratton21 hours ago

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Returning To Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery22 hours ago

Staying In Arizona
1 day ago

Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn Headed For Free Agency
Roansy Contreras1 day ago

Claimed By Texas
1 day ago

Alex Kirilloff Announces Retirement
Jorge Soler1 day ago

Traded To Los Angeles
Curtis Lazar1 day ago

Out Indefinitely Following Knee Procedure
Brendson Ribeiro1 day ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado1 day ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz1 day ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton
Derrick Lewis1 day ago

Faces An Unranked Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Edmonton
2 days ago

Daniel Hudson Retires After World Series Victory
Freddie Freeman2 days ago

Drives In Two More Runs, Earns World Series MVP Honors
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron5 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Khamzat Chimaev5 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan5 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov5 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano5 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige5 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy5 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev5 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Puka Nacua - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football WR Injury Reports: Week 9 Updates For Puka Nacua, DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas Jr., Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper

We've already run the gauntlet of wide receiver injuries, but NFL action never stops, and player ailments never stop piling up throughout the season. It's odd how brutal they've been to the WR position especially. We've seen a number of star wideouts go on injured reserve, some for the rest of the season. Chris Godwin, […]


Bryce Young - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 9 Includes Jaylen Wright, Troy Franklin, Erick All Jr., and more

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Updates for Week 9: Lamar Jackson, Puka Nacua, Tee Higgins, Jordan Love, Brian Thomas Jr.

The fantasy football gods don't care about your hopes and aspirations for your team. They dole out what they want when they please. It's common for players to get injuries in a sport that involves crashing into each other at high speeds and changing direction with extreme force. It's Week 9, which means some fantasy […]


Dallas Goedert - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Reports for Tight Ends: Week 9 - Updates for T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Will Dissly

It’s time to check in on the injuries to some of the tight ends around the National Football League. The volatility at this position has been a nightmare for fantasy managers this season, and injuries across the board haven’t helped.   Being up-to-date on NFL injury news can give you an edge over your league […]


Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 9 Targets and Avoids (2024)

Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do […]


Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Week 9 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks - Main Slate (2024): Jalen Hurts, Chase Brown, Evan Engram, and more

After raiding my daughter's trick-or-treat bag leftovers, I'm battling a Halloween hangover. It's probably a similar feeling to what lots of DFS players were experiencing after last week's Main Slate, as injuries and muted outputs from several popular players were hallmarks of Week 8. That said, we're on to a Week 9 slate that features […]


Puka Nacua - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 9 (Friday Updates): Puka Nacua, DK Metcalf, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, more

We have now hit the halfway point of the NFL season, but over halfway for most fantasy football seasons. As has been the norm this season, there are plenty of injuries to top fantasy players at every position. Some remain out for the foreseeable future, some are potentially playing through injury, and some are returning […]


Jayden Daniels - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2024)

Just two teams will be on a bye during Week 9, leaving a busy slate across the NFL. Injuries will once again impact the slate, as well as some teams making changes at quarterback. Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play […]


RotoBaller NFL Betting Picks Stock

2024 NFL Week 9 Betting Picks (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard. To see ALL of Jamie's bets (and others from RotoBaller experts) then head over to the RotoBaller Discord. You'll find every bet and prop in the #NFL-BETTING-PROPS channel there!   Background My name is Jamie Calandro (@jac3600 on X) and I have […]


AJ Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS: FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 9 - Top Lineup Plays Include Bijan Robinson, A.J. Brown, T.J. Hockenson

Like a backup quarterback patiently holding the clipboard with his hat on backward, I've been summoned into action to help give you some helpful NFL DFS advice for Week 9. My good friend Dennis Clausen, who usually pens this piece, asked me to help him out this week. Don't worry - Dennis is fine, other […]


Zay Flowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 Fantasy Football Busts? Players Who May Disappoint Include Josh Jacobs, Zay Flowers, Tank Bigsby, Rachaad White, Nick Chubb, Bucky Irving

Welcome to Week 9, the midway point of the 2024 fantasy football season. It's arrived quickly for most, but there's still plenty of season left! Injuries to wide receivers have left a sour taste in the mouths of fantasy managers, therefore propping up running backs. However, some running backs may have a rough week while […]


Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 9 (2024)

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 9 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 9! With the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers on bye this week, fantasy managers will have to replace George Pickens, Najee Harris, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle in their lineups. This Week 9 matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em piece will help you make the right lineup decisions […]