March 16, 2018

Kent Shen discusses the historic rookie class of 2017/18, including fantasy performance and future outlook, starting with the rookie of the year candidates.

With most fantasy playoffs in full swing, and articles all over the place with regards to waiver pickups, stream targets and playoff match-up analysis, I figured it'd be a good time to instead take a look with an eye on the future.

2017-2018's rookie class was one of the most exciting in recent memory, and I'm going to be going over the future outlook down the road, starting with some of the bigger names in this draft class.

Let's begin with with the front-runners for Rookie of the Year.

Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

Simmons has lived up to the hype and then some, posting a phenomenal season with top 60 value in standard 8-cat leagues (and top 20(!) in punt FT% builds). He has shown generational ball handling skills, especially for someone of that size, and has been the second best player on a playoff team on the rise.

What's more amazing is that Simmons has done this without any semblance of a shot. An astounding 92% of his shot attempts have come either at the rim or the short mid-range, which makes it all the more crazier that Simmons has been this productive when opponents can sag off him defensively due to the nonexistent threat of his shooting.

Player Comparison: Young LeBron James

The easiest and laziest comparison is a young LeBron. LeBron came into the league as a gifted play-making big with a suspect shot, a generational passer for someone of his size and strength. While LeBron wasn't a good shooter when he entered the league 15 years ago, he at least attempted to shoot, with 42% of his shots coming from either long mid-range or behind the arc.

It took LeBron 8 or so years to eventually become a dangerous shooter, and while it'll be hard pressed for Simmons to get to that level, there is a decent chance that he will develop somewhat of a shot down the road. The passing and play-making might be even more refined than James was at this age, so if Simmons is able to become even a 33% 3-point shooter, he will be absolutely lethal.

Ceiling: Top 30 near term, first round long term

Simmons is already close to an elite fantasy guy, and his game translates exceptionally well. In a punt FT% build, he will already be returning close to first round value next year, especially considering how valuable his out of position assists and steals are for that particular build. Even without a shot, he will be a linchpin of that build for years to come.

If he's able to develop a shot at all and become a better free-throw shooter, look out - he could end up fighting for the first overall pick a few years down the road.

Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz

The other contender for Rookie of the Year, Mitchell has been amazing this season, becoming the go-to scorer for a legitimate playoff team that has still played better than its record suggests. Mitchell has already been a top-60 player this year, and this includes his slow start to the season as the Jazz were still breaking in their new rookie. He's been absolutely electric leading the offense of a team that desperately needed it.

Player Comparison: James Harden

By now, everyone's seen the per 36 comparisons for Mitchell's season versus James Harden at the same age, but here it is again for reference:

Harden:

.436FG% .349 3PT% .843FT% 4.2REB 2.9AST 1.5 STL 0.4BLK 1.7TO

Mitchell:

.436FG% .348 3PT% .842FT% 3.9REB 3.9AST 1.6 STL 0.4BLK 3.0TO

That's incredible. Mitchell is already taking on more ball-handling responsibilities than Harden did commandeering OKC's second unit at the time, and it's reasonable to expect that aspect of his game to improve as he gets older.

Ceiling: Top 40 short term, first round long term

The Don is absolutely an all-star in the making, and he's already a great fantasy player who should slot comfortably into the top 40 next season. The biggest I believe that Mitchell has first round upside, regardless if he develops his play-making to the level James Harden has, is his 1.5 per game steal rate as a rookie. A large part making up the difference between first round and second round elite point guards is steals, as the guys who sit or have sat in the first round (Curry, Westbrook, Harden, Wall, CP3) all possess steal rates above 1.5, while guys like Lillard and Irving who are great but sit just outside the first round have had rates below 1.0.

Mitchell is already at that 1.5 mark as a rookie, and could have peak seasons close to 2. He's already going to be a comfortable 20+ ppg scorer next season, and if he is able to get his assists up to something like 6+ down the road, that could very well be the basis of a first round skillset.

Jayson Tatum

Tatum opened the season fast, posting insane efficiency for a rookie off unsustainable 3-point shooting. His shooting has since petered out a bit since that scorching start, and his output over the last 3 months has languished outside the top 100. He's still playing significant minutes for a contending team, which is great for a rookie who is still just 19 years old.

Player Comparison: Gordon Hayward

The fantasy skill-set is almost identical to Hayward, and it is easy to see Tatum developing into a similar type of player as Hayward, except a lot quicker than Gordon did. It took Gordon until his age 24 season before he developed into a borderline superstar and top 40 fantasy player, and it's reasonable to expect Tatum to reach that level by his age 21 season. The mix of good efficiency, coupled with across the board production won't make him a linchpin of any specific build, but a glue guy that can slot in a multitude of different ones.

Ceiling: Top 70 short term, top 20 long term

The one thing that could hold Tatum back from reaching a higher ceiling in fantasy is a lack of defensive stats. Tatum is only posting 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks this season, well below the types of numbers most top 20 and up guys put up in at least one of those categories. Hayward jumped to 1.4 steals in his 4th season, which is one of the main reason why he vaulted into an elite fantasy guy, and we need to see Tatum make a similar kind of jump to reach his potential. Tatum's ceiling would look something like 2 3s, with a steal and a block, which is elite production worthy of an early pick.

Lonzo Ball

Despite suffering through an injury riddled rookie year, Lonzo has quietly been a top-70 guy in standard builds and a ridiculous top-20 value in both punt FT% and punt FG% builds. He has one of the most unique, fantasy friendly games we have seen in a long time, and while the concerns regarding his percentages are a legitimate concern, it's a lot less so from a fantasy standpoint as you can easily punt one or both of those stats.

Player Comparison: Draymond Green

This comparison makes no sense in real life, but in fantasy there couldn't be a more perfect match. Draymond has a very similar skill-set, providing across the board production while  hurting you in the %s, but Draymond's percentages are not nearly as bad as what Lonzo posted this season, and as Lonzo develops, we can expect him to jump to a similar level of efficiency as well at some point in his career. Draymond gets you out of position assists and steals for a big man, while Lonzo gets you out of position rebounds and blocks for a guard. This is the kind of thing that makes fantasy basketball more interesting than other sports, 2 completely different players in real life can have almost identical skill-sets in our world.

Ceiling: Top 30 short term, Top 10 value in punt builds

As early as next season, Lonzo will already be a top 20 value for punt FT% and punt FG% builds, and soon, he can easily find himself returning top 10. Right now, with his low volume, he won't hurt as much in non-punt builds but the concern is as his volume ramps up, he will become a bigger drag in those categories and become purely a punt guy. There will be a year or 2 window before his efficiency catches up a bit that he will only really be viable at his ADP for those specific punt builds, but as his career progresses, we can expect him to be an insane fantasy player and remain one of the most unique players in the game today.

Check back next week for another back of rookies as we move on with our analysis!

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