If at First You Don't Succeed... Second-Year NFL Breakouts

Do you remember your first year playing fantasy football? I can't talk about myself because I was 14 at the time and everyone in my league was essentially playing for the first time. But over the years, as I got older, I saw plenty of friends introduced to the world of fantasy sports. Many of you certainly experienced this as well. How did they perform? Sure, beginner's luck is a thing, but did any of them really know what they were doing?

The leap from college to the NFL is a substantial one. Not every kid is suited to come into the pros and produce right away. Often times, in fact, most times, it will be readily apparent after a year in the league that a player is just not cut out for NFL success. But that doesn't apply to everyone.

Many players show signs in year one that they have long term upside. Many players just don't get a chance in year one. Many players find themselves in an unfavorable situations year one that improve in year two. Let's take a look at some 2017 rookies that should take a step forward in 2018.

Sophomore Surgers

Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)

It is no secret that the football world is expecting a second-year leap from last year's second overall pick. I just don't think the fantasy community is recognizing how substantial of a leap it will be. After a rookie year with no weapons and one of the worst head coaches of all time, the Bears have cleaned house and revamped their offense. Mitch Trubisky is immensely talented and setup for greatness.

Trubisky did not throw for multiple touchdowns in a single game last season. Statistically, it is not pretty. As the comparison often goes, as bad as Trubisky was in 2017, Jared Goff was worse as a rookie in 2016. Few people saw the 2017 Goff leap coming. Do not miss out on the Trubisky leap. With Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton in town and a coach that understands why he should utilize Tarik Cohen all over the field, Trubisky is not just a prime late round QB target, he is the late round QB target. I will be owning Trubisky in a lot of leagues and expect him to finish as a legitimate QB1.

Pat Mahomes (QB, KC)

Deshaun Watson is the talk of the town when it comes to the 2017 NFL Draft, but remember, after Trubisky was taken as the first QB off the board, it was Pat Mahomes that went second. You've heard the tropes about Mahomes before. He's a gunslinger. He has tremendous arm talent. But unlike Trubisky and Watson, Mahomes has never really started (which kind of makes his appearance on this list "cheating," but I wanted to talk about him!) He got a Week 17 showcase last season, but was playing without Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. Mahomes didn't throw a touchdown in that game, but he did display some of that talent that has coaches and scouts salivating.

We know the Chiefs believe in Mahomes. Their offseason trade of Alex Smith to Washington might as well have been a love letter to Mahomes. Andy Reid has made some questionable coaching decisions over his career, but one thing he has always done is been willing to adapt his offense to his players. He still didn't use Hill enough last season, but perhaps that will change with Mahomes.

Equipped with one of the best supporting casts in the NFL that has now added Sammy Watkins, Mahomes is also setup for greatness. There may be growing pains and the early season schedule is not favorable, but Mahomes could prove to be a great value, particularly in the second half of the season. It would surprise me if he wasn't one of the first 12 QBs off the board in 2019 fantasy drafts.

D'Onta Foreman (RB, HOU)

D'Onta Foreman is one of the most tenuous names on this list. If all things were equal, I would be supremely confident in his ability to take this job with a strong preseason. But all things are not equal. Foreman is returning from a torn Achilles, which is admittedly worrisome for a player with his skill set.

There is reason for optimism. Science is wonderful so Foreman may eventually get close to his pre-injury form. He's not the greatest of talents, but he's better than Lamar Miller. In 2017, Miller posted a 2.9% breakaway run rate, 14.6% juke rate, and 0.81 yards created per carry. Foreman was substantially better than Miller in all three areas. Foreman is simply a better player and if he can maneuver his 23.5% snap share up to around 50%, he can easily be an RB2 playing on a good offense with a running QB and a bad defense. This all hinges on Foreman's health, though. If Foreman starts the season on the PUP list, then Miller may actually become a value.

Tarik Cohen (RB, CHI)

The Bears seemingly knew what they had in Tarik Cohen. He should not be on this list. In Weeks 1 and 2, Cohen saw 21 targets and had eight receptions in each game. Then, John Fox, in his infinite wisdom, decided that Cohen was being too productive and stopped putting him on the field. Cohen saw just 50 targets over the reason of the season.

Cohen saw double-digit carries in a game three times (and nine carries once). In those four games, he averaged 4.98 YPC. No one is suggesting he should usurp Jordan Howard and become a three-down back. He cannot and will not ever be that. But Cohen can certainly be Alvin Kamara lite.

New head coach Matt Nagy has already stated how impressive Cohen has been and how he wants to use Cohen all over the formation. Look for Cohen to see about 5-7 carries a game and 5-7 targets a game and be a legitimate PPR RB2 with RB1 upside if something were to happen to Howard.

Corey Davis (WR, TEN)

It was a bit of a lost rookie season for Corey Davis, who spent way too much time on the disabled list. He finished with just 375 yards on 34 receptions. Let's not write him off just yet. He's not Mike Williams, here. Davis actually has talent and will have every opportunity to enter the season as Marcus Mariota's #1 target.

The Titans passing offense as a whole was way too futile last season. They are due for some positive regression, particularly in the touchdown department. At 6'3, 209 lbs, Davis is well suited for red zone targets. It would be surprising at all if Mariota & co. bounced back and Davis pushed near 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.

Chris Godwin (WR, TB)

Chris Godwin will likely need an injury to actually break out, but I felt like I'd be doing the fantasy community a disservice if I left him off this list. I love Chris Godwin. He has business watching from the sidelines while the ghost of DeSean Jackson is starting in two WR sets. Godwin is so far and away a better player than Jackson at this point in Jackson's career, it's embarrassing that Dirk Koetter can be so blind to it.

Godwin is a tremendous athlete with a 95th percentile SPARQ-x score and upper third workout metrics across the board. In addition to having a superb athletic profile, we've already seen it on the field from Godwin. In four games where Godwin saw at least six targets (he saw no more than three in any others), here were his lines: 5-68 (10 targets), 5-68 (six targets), 3-98 (six targets), 7-111-1 (12 targets).

Combine elite athleticism with on-field production, an overall good offense, and a bad defense, and the pieces are there for Godwin to be a legitimate fantasy WR2. All he needs is the opportunity and is certainly worth a late round gamble.

Kenny Golladay (WR, DET)

Maybe I believe in Kenny Golladay. Or maybe I just put him here so I can call him Babytron, which is, by far, the coolest nickname in football right now (yes, I was a huge Calvin Johnson mark). Golladay is another tremendous athlete. He has an 84th percentile SPARQ-x score, a 92nd percentile speed score, and an 81st percentile catch radius. He has the benefit of playing on a high volume passing offense. Matt Stafford had attempted at least 592 passes in every season since 2011 until last season when he inexplicably only attempted 565. That is the outlier. Look for Stafford to exceed 600 pass attempts again this season.

That all bodes well for Golladay's chances of carving out a role in a passing attack that features Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. It goes without saying that an injury to either of them would bust the door wide open for Golladay, but even without an injury, Stafford can sustain three fantasy-relevant WRs and Golladay should be a target in the red zone. Golladay doesn't cost anything to draft and has serious fantasy upside if a few things break right.

George Kittle (TE, SF)

George Kittle is a super athlete. His worst workout metric is his 89th percentile burst score. His agility score is in the 100th percentile. Kittle only saw a 60.6% snap share as a rookie. That should be closer to 80-85% this season and Kittle will no longer be a rookie, which is notoriously difficult for TEs.

Kittle averaged 1.69 fantasy points per target and spent half the season playing with Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard. He has excellent hands, catching 82.5% of his catchable targets, which should only go up as he will now have a full season with the G.O.A.T., Jimmy Garoppolo.

The 49ers also lack a true WR1. Garoppolo is going to spread the ball around and utilize his athletic TE, especially in those tight windows. Kittle could end up being one of the position's best bargains.

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