September Speed Demons: Who Can Keep Up The Pace?

March 31, 2020

Eric Samulski looks at undervalued fantasy baseball stolen base sleepers who look to sustain their SB numbers from last September for 2020 fantasy baseball.

Earlier this preseason, I took a look at the hitters who experienced a power spike in the final month of the 2019 season in hopes of identifying adjustments that might lead to a 2020 breakout.

Next, it's time to look at the players whose September stolen base numbers stood out from the rest of their 2019 seasons.

Unfortunately, after a deeper dive, far fewer of them seem like sure bets for 2020 than the power bats did. So while there still might be some value to be had here, we have to be cautious about over-drafting the following names.

Garrett Hampson (2B/OF, COL)

September stats: .318/.368/.534, 5 HR, 8 RBI, 16 R, 9 SB

One reason for Hampson's strong September was that he saw almost double the at-bats of his next best month. More at-bats led to more hits, which led to more stolen bases. That's a pretty simple recipe, especially for a rookie just getting used to the Major League level. After inconsistent early playing time, September seemed to be when Hampson started to figure things out.

In addition to his xwOBA climbing aggressively (pictured above), his xBA rose from .161 on 8/28 to .276 by 9/29. His K% also fell from 40% on 8/28 to 20% on 9/29, which seems, again, to make sense. Hampson started making more consistent contact, which led to a higher batting average, which led to more opportunities to make use of his top-end speed.

Earlier this offseason, Jeff Zimmerman suggested that we should care more about home-to-first times than sprint speed when trying to figure out which hitters have the potential to be the most effective base stealers.

We also have Statcast's Bolt metric, which is "any run where the Sprint Speed (defined as "feet per second in a player's fastest one-second window") of the runner is at least 30 ft/sec." Hampson registered a 4.06 home-to-first speed, which tied him with Nationals shortstop Trea Turner for 19th in the league. His bolts were also good for fifth in the league despite his limited playing time.

Despite this legitimate speed, what's disappointing is that his batting average improvement came with a massive launch angle decrease and no growth in exit velocity, which remained between 83-85 mph (below league average). This all tracks with Hampson's Minor League performance, which paints him as a solid hitter (around .270) who won't give you much power or OPS value but will steal bases provided he gets opportunities.

Therein lies the problem. As of right now, Hampson doesn't have opportunity on his side. Ryan McMahon is at second base and looked strong this spring. Nolan Arenado is still currently a Rockie and locked into third base, and Sam Hilliard has shown more upside than Hampson, so he's slotted into left field.

Now, Arenado may be traded, Dahl may get hurt, or Hilliard might flop. The Rockies might also give Ian Desmond more reps in the outfield, but this isn't exactly the organization I want to trust to get their most dynamic players on the field. Since Hampson's main skill is his speed, he can still be valuable to the team as a utility player and pinch-runner. If that's the case, he's going to get less than 300 plate appearances and struggle to steal more than 15 bases. I would spend my FAAB on him if he backed into a starting job and I needed steals, but I'm not prioritizing him in any drafts.

Jon Berti (SS/OF, MIA)

September stats: .287/.347/.345, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 16 R, 9 SB

This article won't all be virtual cold water, but Berti is another player I'm not super high on. At least I feel comfortable about Hampson's ability to get on base in order to steal; I simply don't think Berti is an average Major League hitter. Even in his solid September last year, the 29-year-old rookie had an xwOBA that fluctuated between .302 and .218. Never once did it reach the Major League average level.

Similarly, his xBA began the month at .219 and reached .261 briefly before falling to .246. His average launch angle never got close to Major League average, and his exit velocity also hovered around 85 mph all season before dipping lower in September.

In addition to all of that, his K% was above Major League average for almost the entirety of the second half of the season. His BB% was only 8.4% on the season, and he has no starting job in Miami, so it's hard for him to make good on his sprint speed, which was 37th best in the league, right in line with Hilliard and Royals infielder Nicky Lopez (who Berti compares to).

Yes, Berti will likely be a jack-of-all-trades for the Marlins and could even see starts at second if Isan Diaz continues to struggle, but he doesn't make consistent contact and has little to no power, so he's going to give you next to no fantasy value other than steals.

Victor Reyes (OF, DET)

September stats: .330/.354/.491, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 8 R, 6 SB

Hey, look, another player without a starting job heading into 2020. At least this one I'm intrigued by. As a 25-year-old in his second season with the Tigers, Reyes got almost all of his action in August and September, hitting .313 over the second half of the season with 3 HR, 22 RBI, 24 R and 8 SB.

During his Minor League career, Reyes was a .290 or higher hitter in many stops and his .330 average in September is borne out by his xBA, which, despite a crazy slump in the middle of the month, reached well over .300 for most of the second half and finished the season at .284.

Perhaps equally as intriguing is that his launch angle spent much of September (outside of the aforementioned slump) between 10 and 12 degrees, after a 6-degree launch angle in 2018. Meanwhile, his Hard hit% climbed from 12% on 9/1 to 46% on 9/29.

So we've got a young player with a solid batting average floor, starting to raise his launch angle and hit the ball harder consistently. What's not to like about that? Especially when that player also has 91st-percentile sprint speed and is one extended slump from JaCoby Jones (another favorite of mine), Cameron Maybin, or Christin Stewart away from regular at-bats.

While Reyes' 4.21 home-to-first time isn't as good as some of the players on this list, it ties him with Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson and Maybin, so it's not nothing. Reyes may not be 12-team league relevant, but all 15-team owners should keep an eye out if he starts seeing regular playing time.

Tommy Edman (2B/3B, STL)

September stats: .350/.417/.660, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 22 R, 6 SB

Edman's breakout was more of a two-month stretch than just September, hitting .329 with 7 HR, 22 RBI, 41 R, and 9 SB from August on. That .350 September batting average was propped up by a .395 BABIP, even though the xBA supported the well above league-average results.

Even at his lowest point, marked here on September 8th, Edman had a league-average xBA, which then only improved as the month went on. In part because of his speed, Edman has always had relatively high BABIPs, which have kept his Minor League averages around .280 or higher.

What's more, his league average exit velocity and 14.1-degree launch angle also suggest that Edman's home run totals over the second half of the season aren't entirely fluky. Over a full season, given consistent playing time, Edelman could push for 15 home runs, which would give him considerable fantasy value when paired with his 97th-percentile speed.

Edman's 4.12 home-to-first time put him 33rd in the league, and his 23 bolts were higher than Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies and Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich, which indicates that Edman has the speed to be a consistent stolen base threat - he simply needs ABs.

Currently, Edman is not a projected starter; however, Matt Carpenter is not the picture of health at 3B, and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been experiencing elbow pain that has caused him to be sidelined recently. If either sits, Edman has a starting spot, and that doesn't even account for the inconsistent career that Kolten Wong has had as the team's second baseman. They all provide excellent defensive value, but Edman is no slouch either, so it's not hard to see him end the season with 500 at-bats, which would make a 15-home run, 20-stolen base season possible and puts him easily tops among the four speed-demons mentioned above.

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