Second Basemen Set to Breakout in 2020

February 28, 2020

Kipp Heisterman examines second basemen who could break out in 2020 for fantasy baseball teams. These young 2B may be undervalued draft targets and sleepers.

The purpose of this article, as the title suggests, is to identify second basemen who have shown the potential to have a breakout season heading into 2020. These will be players that were likely on waivers at some point in your league during 2019 and may or may not have been added down the stretch.

In 2020, these second basemen should be able to contribute to fantasy teams from Jump Street. The requisites for the players in this article are to be non-rookies and to have shown the ability at some point in their career to provide meaningful fantasy value

Now that the ground rules have been laid out, let's take a look at some second basemen you may not have considered that could significantly help your fantasy team in 2020.

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Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays

Cavan Biggio has been highly touted in the Blue Jays system since he was selected in the fifth round of the 2016 MLB Draft. This tends to happen when you are the son of a former MLB player and Hall-of-Famer. Biggio made his debut on May 24, 2019, and went on to slash .234/.364/.429 with 16 HR, 48 RBI 66 R, 14 SB, and 71 BB in just 354 at-bats. He provides plenty of value with his ability to hit for some power, run the bases, and get on base at a high clip. A deeper look into his metrics should tell us what we can expect in 2020.

Biggio did not initially hit for power in the minor leagues but came on strong in 2018 when he launched 26 bombs with AA New Hampshire. He followed up that campaign with 22 home runs in 2019 over 143 games between AAA Buffalo and the Blue Jays. He was able to do this by improving his power profile. In 2019, Biggio had a 9.0% barrel rate, 88.7 mph exit velocity, .426 xSLG, and 40.1% hard-hit rate. Each of these ranked above league average, which is solid for a rookie to be able to achieve. He also added in an insane 20.1 launch angel, which ranked 8.9 above league average. He also plays in a park at the Rogers Centre that ranked number one overall for park factors in terms of home runs. Therefore, further progression in 2020 with a full season under his belt could certainly result in a 25 home run season.

Biggio also has a tremendous ability to get on base. In 2019, he walked a whopping 71 times in only 354 at-bats, which was good for a walk rate of 16.5% and ranked him in the top two percent of the league. This shows tremendous patience for such a young player. He was able to do this by keeping his chase rate down to 13.5%, which was well below the league average of 28.3%. His ability to get on base at such a high clip is also what allows him to steal so efficiently.

Biggio snagged 14 bases in 2019 and was not caught on any of those attempts. While he is not the fastest player in the league as noted by his sprint speed of 28.3 ft/sec, he is still ranked in the 81st percentile of the league. He brings a solid skillset of patience and speed to the table, which is what makes him so effective on the basepaths.

In 2020, Biggio looks poised for a breakout season and could certainly figure into starting roles on fantasy rosters in the early going despite his ADP of 139 and being the 14th second baseman off of the board.

Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

Brandon Lowe is a prime breakout candidate at second base heading into 2020 after his injury-riddled 2019 campaign limited him to just 296 at-bats throughout 82 games. He is another second baseman that can provide power, the ability to get on base, and a little bit of speed. He finished 2019 with a slash line of .270, .336/.514 with 17 HR, 51 RBI, 42 R, 5 SB, and 25 BB. Again, this was all done in just 296 at-bats.

His power profile was very strong in 2019 and came on the heels of a 22 home run output between AA Montgomery and AAA Durham over 100 games in 2018. He put up a ridiculous 16.3% barrel rate to go along with a 91.1 mph exit velocity, .507 xSLG, and 46.2% hard-hit rate. Each of these was above the league average. He, like many young players, struggled with a high strikeout rate, which came in at 34.6%. It's a very high rate, but it only brings his career strikeout rate to 22.8% across all four levels of professional ball. Therefore, 2019's strikeout rate could be an outlier.

Lowe has also shown the ability to hit for average throughout his young career. In the minors, he was a .279 hitter over 327 games. He continued to show this profile last season as he hit .270 over his 82 games. While a majority of his success comes vs. right-handed pitching as noted by his .278 average in 2019, he is not dreadful vs. lefties. In 2019, he hit .242 vs. left-handed pitching and can certainly improve if allowed to face lefties more often. He also crushes fastballs and offspeed pitches to the tune of a .596 SLG and .600 SLG, respectively.

Lowe is projected to hit at the top of the Rays lineup vs. righties in 2020, which will give him plenty of opportunities to score runs and steal bases. While stealing bases has not been his strong suit in the minors, he was able to steal five bases in his 82 games last season and has a sprint speed ranked in the 69th percentile. Therefore, double-digit steals could be attainable throughout a full season. He is also projected to hit sixth vs. lefties, so he can certainly knock runs in from this spot if he can improve vs. lefties, which one could expect as he gets more accustomed to facing them.

Overall, Lowe has solid potential heading into 2020 as long as he can stay healthy. He currently has an ADP of 199 and is being taken as the 21st overall second baseman. This means he is being drafted in the middle of round 16. This is a great spot to grab him and take a shot at his potential breakout.

Michael Chavis, Boston Red Sox

Michael Chavis was thurst into action in 2019 after Dustin Pedroia went down in April with what ended up being a season-ending knee injury. Chavis filled in admirably throughout 95 games until shoulder and oblique injuries derailed his season as well. For those 95 games, Chavis slashed .254/.322/.444 with 18 HR, 58 RBI, 46 R, and 31 BB.

Chavis has shown above-average power throughout his career. His 2017 PED induced season notwithstanding, Chavis has averaged approximately 25 home runs per 162 games played. He hit 31 between high A and AA in 2017, but was then suspended for use of Turinbol, which was a banned substance. Upon his return from suspension, Chavis promptly hit nine home runs over just 46 games across three levels in 2018.

Chavis' power metrics in 2019 were solid. He had an especially strong barrel rate of 11.4%, which was 5.1% above average and also had an 88.8 mph exit velocity that ranked 1.3% above average. What was impressive is the fact that he was able to slug .518 off breaking balls with such limited playing time in the big leagues. If he can hit breaking balls with such thump, it shouldn't be too long before he can improve on his .424 and .333 SLG on fastballs and offspeed pitches, respectively. It would be more troublesome if the numbers were reversed as young players tend to hit the fastball and struggle with breaking balls.

Chavis is projected to hit fifth in the Red Sox lineup vs. lefties and sixth vs. righties, which is great news for his run production. The Red Sox may have lost Mookie Betts, but this is still a team that could rank near the top of baseball in terms of runs scored as they ranked fourth in all of baseball in 2019. He currently has an ADP of 267 and is the 29th second baseman off of the board. This means he is being drafted in round 22 of 12-team mixed leagues. Grab him here if you can or don't be afraid to reach up slightly and take him around ADP 255 ahead of someone like Luis Arraez.

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