X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Scott Schebler & Yonder Alonso

Power is the result of two things: hitting fly balls and hitting the ball with authority. If the ball is stuck on the ground, it can't go over the fence no matter how high its exit velocity is. If a fly ball is weakly hit, it becomes nothing more than a routine play for an opposing outfielder.

The above may seem obvious, but is getting overlooked in the face of the ongoing fly ball revolution. Below are two players who have hit more fly balls this year. Scott Schebler has not generated much fanfare yet, while Yonder Alonso has become the revolution's figurehead. One of these two seems like a fluke when exit velocity is considered, while the other looks real. Any guesses which one is worth rostering?

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo formats.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Scott Schebler (OF, CIN) - 42% Owned

Schebler is hitting .252/.328/.520 with nine homers and three steals in 137 PAs so far this season. The steals are not typically associated with Schebler, but he stole 17 (three CS) as recently as 2015. As long as his success rate remains strong, he should be able to swipe 15 or so this year.

That's a nice bonus, but fantasy owners are mostly concerned with his power. Schebler has increased his FB% from 29.1 percent last year to 38 percent this year, giving him more opportunity to take advantage of his home park's cozy dimensions. His HR/FB has also increased from a solid 15.8 percent last year to 25.7 percent this season, a number that seems too high to sustain. Exit velocity suggests that he might be able to do it, though.

Last season, Schebler's fly balls and line drives had an unimpressive average exit velocity of 92.4 mph. This year, the average is up to 97.2 mph, good for 19th in all of MLB (min. 50 balls in play). He also has 11 Barrels, or hits with the perfect combination of launch angle and exit velocity, producing an ideal hit in 12.6 percent of his Batted Ball Events. This is our first year with access to this sort of data, so it remains to be seen how predictive it is. Still, hitting the ball very hard into the air seems like a strong profile to bet on.

A batter with 15 steals and around 30 homers wouldn't need a great average to prove useful in fantasy, but Schebler may have untapped potential there too. His .259 overall BABIP is being dragged down by a .167 mark on ground balls. His career mark is .229, and his .328 career batting average against the shift suggests that infielders cannot beat him by moving around the diamond. To be fair, Schebler's fly ball approach and refusal to hit line drives (career LD% of 17 percent) will still prevent him from reaching the league-average BABIP of .300. Look for a number between .270 and .280 going forward.

Schebler is still hitting sixth despite his success, dampening his counting stat outlook for the foreseeable future. If you can overlook that, you can get a 30-HR, 15-SB outfielder who shouldn't kill your average for free. Go pick him up before somebody else in your league realizes how good he is.

Verdict: Champ

 

Yonder Alonso (1B, OAK) - 63% Owned

Alonso has been even better than Schebler thus far, posting a .294/.385/.667 line with 11 dingers in 117 PAs. Like Schebler, he's doing it by dramatically increasing his FB% (33.3 percent last year to 53.2 percent this). While a batter can change his approach to hit more balls into the air, even the best usually have to settle for a FB% of around 45 percent. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that Alonso's FB% is going down a little.

Alonso also lacks the impressive airborne exit velocity Schebler offers. His flies and liners have averaged 94.9 mph this year, good for 51st in the major leagues. It's a nice step up from last year's mark of 92.3 mph, but it certainly isn't elite. Alonso is not pulling his flies with any more frequency either (19.5 percent against a career rate of 17 percent), making it much more challenging to believe his HR/FB spike (26.8 percent) relative to his career rate (8 percent).

Alonso's sheer volume of fly balls should make him a 20-HR bat, but his current pace suggests twice that number. It would be a mistake to project Alonso for nine more homers for the rest of the year to "make up" for his hot start, as the first 11 are already banked and will not affect his future performance. A 20-HR pace the rest of the way (about four per month) plus the 11 he's already hit would leave him just shy of 30 for the year, a reasonable updated projection.

Alonso has always had a plus eye (27.9 percent career chase rate), but his new approach at the plate is even better (22.9 percent chase rate). He should also strikeout less often (21.4 percent K%) if his SwStr% of 8.7 percent holds up. However, a first baseman has a harder path to must-own status than an outfielder. If you didn't get Alonso's first 11 bombs, he may not be worth acquiring now.

Verdict: Chump

 

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ausar Thompson14 mins ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Zach Collins19 mins ago

Cleared To Play Thursday
Domantas Sabonis20 mins ago

Gets Through Full Practice
Chris Paul22 mins ago

Good To Go Thursday
Brock Purdy24 mins ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Malik Monk30 mins ago

Making Progress
George Kittle30 mins ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Tre Mann39 mins ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Miles Bridges45 mins ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Vince Williams Jr.53 mins ago

Out At Least A Month
Scottie Barnes59 mins ago

Returning On Thursday
Alex Ovechkin1 hour ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Paul George1 hour ago

Out At Least Two Games
Aaron Gordon1 hour ago

Availability In Question For Friday
Zach Hyman1 hour ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson1 hour ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Dorian Finney-Smith1 hour ago

Uncertain To Face The Sixers
Yaroslav Askarov1 hour ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Jalen Hurts1 hour ago

Practices In Full On Thursday
Nicolas Claxton1 hour ago

Questionable Versus Philly
Nikola Jokic2 hours ago

Absent From Practice On Thursday
Mikael Granlund2 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Cam Thomas2 hours ago

Probable On Friday Night
Alexandar Georgiev2 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope2 hours ago

Out On Thursday Night
TB2 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Will Miss Thursday's Game
DeMar DeRozan2 hours ago

Intends To Make His Return Friday Versus Clippers
Frederik Andersen2 hours ago

To Miss 8-12 Weeks
Jake Ferguson2 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Sam LaPorta2 hours ago

Looking Good For A Week 12 Return
Terry Rozier2 hours ago

Could Return For Sunday's Matchup With Dallas
Sam Darnold2 hours ago

Upgrades To Full Participation, On Track To Play
Isiah Pacheco2 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
D'Andre Swift3 hours ago

Upgrades To Limited Participant On Thursday
Luka Doncic3 hours ago

Expected To Miss At Least A Week
CeeDee Lamb3 hours ago

Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Ladd McConkey3 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Thursday
Mike Evans3 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
DeVonta Smith4 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger5 hours ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
Brandin Cooks5 hours ago

Preparing To Play In Week 12
CeeDee Lamb5 hours ago

Not Seen At Thursday's Practice
5 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Aaron Rodgers6 hours ago

Jets Owner Suggested Benching Aaron Rodgers
Mike Evans7 hours ago

Practicing Again On Thursday
Chandler Stephenson8 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson8 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist9 hours ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies9 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund9 hours ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine9 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Ausar Thompson9 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Thursday
Walker Kessler9 hours ago

Still Missing For Jazz
Chris Sale20 hours ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal20 hours ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat22 hours ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English22 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin22 hours ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy22 hours ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Josh Jacobs23 hours ago

Limited With Multiple Injuries
DeVonta Smith23 hours ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Seth Jones1 day ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Limited With Foot Injury
Max Domi1 day ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jalen Hurts1 day ago

Limited On Wednesday
Connor Ingram1 day ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Jake Ferguson1 day ago

Picks Up A DNP On Wednesday
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen1 day ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
Alex Tuch1 day ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Jordan Eberle1 day ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
Ludvig Aberg1 day ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole1 day ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
2 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
2 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
2 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
2 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer3 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
3 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
3 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva3 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy3 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
Nick Martinez4 days ago

Signs Qualifying Offer With Reds
4 days ago

Luis Severino Likely To Decline Qualifying Offer From Mets
James Llontop4 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig4 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal4 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic4 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones4 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP