X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Scott Schebler & Yonder Alonso

Rick Lucks analyzes Scott Schebler & Yonder Alonso to determine whether they will have year-long fantasy value for the 2017 MLB season.

Power is the result of two things: hitting fly balls and hitting the ball with authority. If the ball is stuck on the ground, it can't go over the fence no matter how high its exit velocity is. If a fly ball is weakly hit, it becomes nothing more than a routine play for an opposing outfielder.

The above may seem obvious, but is getting overlooked in the face of the ongoing fly ball revolution. Below are two players who have hit more fly balls this year. Scott Schebler has not generated much fanfare yet, while Yonder Alonso has become the revolution's figurehead. One of these two seems like a fluke when exit velocity is considered, while the other looks real. Any guesses which one is worth rostering?

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo formats.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Scott Schebler (OF, CIN) - 42% Owned

Schebler is hitting .252/.328/.520 with nine homers and three steals in 137 PAs so far this season. The steals are not typically associated with Schebler, but he stole 17 (three CS) as recently as 2015. As long as his success rate remains strong, he should be able to swipe 15 or so this year.

That's a nice bonus, but fantasy owners are mostly concerned with his power. Schebler has increased his FB% from 29.1 percent last year to 38 percent this year, giving him more opportunity to take advantage of his home park's cozy dimensions. His HR/FB has also increased from a solid 15.8 percent last year to 25.7 percent this season, a number that seems too high to sustain. Exit velocity suggests that he might be able to do it, though.

Last season, Schebler's fly balls and line drives had an unimpressive average exit velocity of 92.4 mph. This year, the average is up to 97.2 mph, good for 19th in all of MLB (min. 50 balls in play). He also has 11 Barrels, or hits with the perfect combination of launch angle and exit velocity, producing an ideal hit in 12.6 percent of his Batted Ball Events. This is our first year with access to this sort of data, so it remains to be seen how predictive it is. Still, hitting the ball very hard into the air seems like a strong profile to bet on.

A batter with 15 steals and around 30 homers wouldn't need a great average to prove useful in fantasy, but Schebler may have untapped potential there too. His .259 overall BABIP is being dragged down by a .167 mark on ground balls. His career mark is .229, and his .328 career batting average against the shift suggests that infielders cannot beat him by moving around the diamond. To be fair, Schebler's fly ball approach and refusal to hit line drives (career LD% of 17 percent) will still prevent him from reaching the league-average BABIP of .300. Look for a number between .270 and .280 going forward.

Schebler is still hitting sixth despite his success, dampening his counting stat outlook for the foreseeable future. If you can overlook that, you can get a 30-HR, 15-SB outfielder who shouldn't kill your average for free. Go pick him up before somebody else in your league realizes how good he is.

Verdict: Champ

 

Yonder Alonso (1B, OAK) - 63% Owned

Alonso has been even better than Schebler thus far, posting a .294/.385/.667 line with 11 dingers in 117 PAs. Like Schebler, he's doing it by dramatically increasing his FB% (33.3 percent last year to 53.2 percent this). While a batter can change his approach to hit more balls into the air, even the best usually have to settle for a FB% of around 45 percent. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that Alonso's FB% is going down a little.

Alonso also lacks the impressive airborne exit velocity Schebler offers. His flies and liners have averaged 94.9 mph this year, good for 51st in the major leagues. It's a nice step up from last year's mark of 92.3 mph, but it certainly isn't elite. Alonso is not pulling his flies with any more frequency either (19.5 percent against a career rate of 17 percent), making it much more challenging to believe his HR/FB spike (26.8 percent) relative to his career rate (8 percent).

Alonso's sheer volume of fly balls should make him a 20-HR bat, but his current pace suggests twice that number. It would be a mistake to project Alonso for nine more homers for the rest of the year to "make up" for his hot start, as the first 11 are already banked and will not affect his future performance. A 20-HR pace the rest of the way (about four per month) plus the 11 he's already hit would leave him just shy of 30 for the year, a reasonable updated projection.

Alonso has always had a plus eye (27.9 percent career chase rate), but his new approach at the plate is even better (22.9 percent chase rate). He should also strikeout less often (21.4 percent K%) if his SwStr% of 8.7 percent holds up. However, a first baseman has a harder path to must-own status than an outfielder. If you didn't get Alonso's first 11 bombs, he may not be worth acquiring now.

Verdict: Chump

 

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nikola Jokić21 mins ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play On Friday
Hunter Brown28 mins ago

Registers Eight Strikeouts
Jonathan Kuminga32 mins ago

Back On Thursday Night
Christian Walker34 mins ago

Mashes Homer In Win
Freddie Freeman43 mins ago

Heading To Injured List
Miles Boykin2 hours ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson3 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield3 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum3 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George3 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes3 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton3 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell3 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole4 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes4 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Cedric Mullins4 hours ago

Goes Deep In Loss To Boston
Jonathan Drouin4 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey4 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev4 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun4 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Taijuan Walker4 hours ago

Blanks Rockies For Six Innings To Earn First Win
Tanner Houck4 hours ago

Picks Up No-Decision In Four-Inning Outing
Olli Määttä4 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Alex Bregman4 hours ago

Fills The Box Score In Win Over Orioles
Dylan Guenther4 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Jorge Polanco5 hours ago

Reinstated From Paternity List
Anthony Duclair5 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Carlos Rodriguez5 hours ago

Joining Brewers On Thursday
Alex Pietrangelo5 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk5 hours ago

Out On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu5 hours ago

"About A Week Away" From Taking Live At-Bats
Devin Williams5 hours ago

To Return From Paternity List On Friday
Jake Fraley5 hours ago

Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley Sitting Against A Lefty
Trey McBride5 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith6 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
Jeferson Quero6 hours ago

Set Back With Hamstring Injury
Eguy Rosario6 hours ago

Clears Waivers, Outrighted To Triple-A
Xavier Isaac6 hours ago

Rays Hopeful Xavier Isaac Will Return In A Couple Of Weeks
Angel Genao7 hours ago

Won't Return Until June
Austin Wells7 hours ago

Being Rested On Thursday
Paul Goldschmidt7 hours ago

Sitting In Finale Against Arizona
Masataka Yoshida7 hours ago

Not Ready For Rehab Assignment
Edward Cabrera7 hours ago

Goes Three Innings In Rehab Start
7 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Jake McCarthy7 hours ago

Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy Sitting On Thursday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
New York Giants7 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Dallas Cowboys8 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Washington Commanders8 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs9 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints9 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III12 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson13 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes13 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley13 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl13 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard13 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James13 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann15 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake15 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin15 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov15 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe15 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers23 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
24 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals1 day ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell1 day ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1 day ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 day ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford1 day ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm1 day ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Samuel Girard1 day ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta1 day ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz1 day ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
1 day ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
1 day ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF