RADIO
He's Baaaaack (And Could be a Sneaky Draft Value)
Despite media outlets everywhere outside the Capital Beltway proclaiming Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg as the face of the franchise, true Washingtonians know that Ryan Zimmerman is the real National treasure. Since he was drafted fourth overall in 2005, Zim has been the Opening Day starter at third base and a staple in the heart of the lineup, when healthy.
Even after Jayson Werth, Harper, Strasburg and Ivan Rodriguez have entered the mix at some point in time, it seems that however Zim goes, so go the Nationals. He has suffered some injuries over the past few seasons and missed 100 games in 2014, mainly because of a hamstring strain. But despite all the time he has missed, he has remained as tough as Clint Eastwood. Regardless of his previous injuries, I'm here to tell you that he should provide great fantasy value in 2015 if he stays healthy.
The Good
When he’s on, he is as good as any hitter in the league. During an injury plagued 2014 campaign, Zim hit at or around his career slash line posting a .280/.342/.449 line (career .286/.352/.476) - but did see a drastic decrease in his power. His 7.8% HR/FB rate was by far the lowest of his career. Now that he’s 100% healthy, we probably won’t see a dramatic Hindenburg-like explosion in his power numbers. We're more likely to witness a steady return to his career average of 13.3% HR/FB.
Zimmerman is projected for a slight decrease in power numbers compared to his career average. Even so, he will continue to hit for power and drive in runs using the entire field. There’s no reason to think his .346 wOBA and 120 wRC+ pace will decline as he continues to be a solid line drive and opposite field hitter.
The Bad
It seems that every ground ball to third base over the last two years has kept Nationals fans on edge. It would get worse as the ten year veteran cocked back to fire to first. The collective cringe of Nats fans when Zimmerman was flinging to first could be heard in Baltimore.
Since 2010, the only season he has posted a defensive WAR above absolute zero was in 2012 (1.3 dWAR) and his total dWAR is a whopping -13.1. Yikes. Once upon a time Zim actually won a Gold Glove award. Those days are gone. The departure of Adam LaRoche opens the door for Zimmerman to move to first base. Throwing should be less of an issue, but it’s still best for fantasy owners in deeper and defensive category leagues to think twice about potential growing pains and errors.
The Ugly
Now for the million, or 100 million, dollar question: is he really healthy? If you’re a superstitious person, then you’ll feel pretty good knowing that he only misses considerable time (over 20 games) due to injury every three seasons - 56 games missed in 2008, 61 games in 2011 and 101 in 2014. Not exactly a ringing endorsement but some of us baseball aficionados are weirdos.
Everyone in the Washington Nationals organization is excited for Zimmerman’s return as they say he is actually 100% healthy. There’s really no way to accurately project when and if a player will get injured. It is safe to say that injury prone guys are at a higher risk.
The Verdict
Considering his low overall numbers from 2014, it’s safe to assume that Zimmerman will fall in most drafts. If he does drop to the middle or late rounds, don’t be afraid to jump on him to get maximum value from your pick. If he can stay healthy, Zim should reach the 20 HR and 80 RBI plateau with a .280 AVG by season’s end. Those may seem like lofty numbers, but those projections are right on par with his career performances. He should also be eligible at three positions in 2015 (1B, 3B and OF) in most leagues, giving him some added roster flexibility and fantasy value. If you’re on the fence in early rounds, don’t be afraid to take the veteran third first basemen.
