Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 5

October 6, 2020

Phil Clark's fantasy football running back waiver wire pickups before Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season. These are free agent fantasy RBs to add, and potential PPR sleepers to stash.

Some of you were forced to contend with significant injuries to your running backs during the matchups of Week 4, while others experienced frustrating output and inconsistent patterns of usage. The sudden bye weeks for Tennessee, and Pittsburgh, also created unexpected challenges for anyone with Derrick Henry, or James Conner. Uncertainty surrounding the status of New England's matchup with Kansas City also caused fantasy GMs with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or any Patriot backs on their rosters to consider lineup changes. These situations have provided a reminder that all managers will need to remain extremely flexible because player availability could be altered at any time during this unique season.

We now progress into planning for Week 5, which includes the onset of eight weeks with scheduled byes. This is the designated bye week for both Detroit and Green Bay, which ensures that anyone with Aaron Jones, Adrian Peterson, or D’Andre Swift on their rosters will have to avoid starting those backs this week. It also will provide managers with an additional factor that could fuel your interest in locating alternative options on the waiver wire.

These recommendations will appear in three tiers - beginning with the most enticing and progressing to runners for fantasy GMs that are struggling with desperation. You will also find a group of backs that can be dropped in order for you to secure your replacements. After you've finished this breakdown, you can also find news updates and data-fueled analysis that is designed to help you maximize the scoring potential of your rosters.

Running Back Leaderboard

Frontrunners - Week 5 Waiver Wire Running Backs

These backs should be your top priorities among the options that are available on most waiver wires. Some will be more beneficial in PPR formats than standard. All players have 60% or less ownership in typical fantasy leagues.

Who would you rather have in fantasy football?

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 4, 2020

 

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals

37% rostered

Kenyan Drake entered Week 5 at just RB28 in points per game scoring, even though he had been averaging 19.7 touches per game. He had also been averaging 79.7 total yards per game but was primed for an enticing matchup with Carolina. The Panthers' run defense had already surrendered 345 yards and seven touchdowns to opposing runners - including 196 yards and five touchdowns to Josh Jacobs and Leonard Fournette. But Drake could only manufacture 35 yards on 13 attempts (2.7 yards per attempt) and failed to register a target against the Panthers.

Expectations had been lofty for Drake after many fantasy GMs had invested their first-round selections on the 26-year old back. But his lackluster production could open an enormous runway for Edmonds to seize an expanded workload. Edmonds capitalized on his nine touches in Carolina by generating 40 total yards and a touchdown. He has already cemented his status as a viable insurance policy for anyone with Drake on their rosters. But Edmonds also possesses the potential to emerge as a highly productive weekly starter if Drake is sidelined by injury or the Cardinals remove his feature-back responsibilities.

Joshua Kelley / Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers

Kelley - 54% rostered / Jackson - 5% rostered 

Kelley had attained a 36% snaps share and was 15^th overall with 43 rushing attempts entering Week 4. That included a whopping 22 carries that he collected in Week 2. He had also accumulated nine red zone carries, while also generating 167 yards. All of those numbers stood in contrast to Jackson, who had been involved in just 11 snaps from Weeks 1-3 while contending with a quad injury. However, both backs are worthy of targeting on your waiver wire, due to the expected absence of Austin Ekeler.

#Chargers Week 4 RB Usage with Ekeler getting knocked out early

- Joshua Kelley, 58% snaps, 9 carries, 3 targets
- Justin Jackson, 38% snaps, 6 carries, 2 targets
- Gabe Nabers, 14% snaps, 1 carry, 1 target

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 4, 2020

More details will be revealed by Ekeler’s scheduled MRI. But it appears that he will be unavailable for multiple weeks. Touches should be distributed to both Kelley and Jackson while Ekeler is sidelined. This elevates each back into flex consideration, for anyone who has been impacted by injuries or discouraging performances from your current stable of backs.  Kelley is available in nearly half of all leagues, while Jackson can be located on the waiver wire in 95% of all leagues.

D'Ernest Johnson, Cleveland Browns

1% rostered

Johnson played collegiately at South Florida, was originally signed by the Saints, and also played for the Orlando Apollos of the AAF (Alliance of American Football). He dwelled far outside the fantasy radar during that sequence and remained there while accumulating 92 total yards for Cleveland in 2019. But Johnson skyrocketed into relevance after becoming a critical resource for the Browns during their Week 4 matchup in Dallas. Johnson exploded for 95 yards on 13 attempts (7.3 yards per attempt) after Nick Chubb was sidelined by a leg injury.

Kareem Hunt generated 71 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys. But he has been contending with a groin issue, which presented Johnson with the opportunity to become involved in the Browns’ ground game. Hunt will operate as Cleveland’s lead back while Chubb is on injured reserve. But Johnson should also sustain a role in the Browns' backfield while functioning as a starter for fantasy GMs. That has elevated Johnson near the top of this week’s waiver priorities.

In The Running - Week 5 Waiver Wire Running Backs

These backs remain available on the waiver wire but are not necessarily must-adds.

Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos

52% rostered

Lindsay rushed for 24 yards on seven attempts before exiting Denver’s season opener with a turf toe issue. He has been sidelined since the injury occurred but appears primed to reemerge when the Broncos visit New England on Sunday. His workload might be managed initially, and Melvin Gordon was signed by John Elway to function as the team’s primary back. However, Lindsay’s return will prevent Gordon from approaching the massive touch total that he attained against the Jets in Week 4 (25/62% snap share).

Lindsay’s presence did not deter Elway from infusing Gordon into the backfield. But Lindsay should still collect a respectable number of touches. He became the first undrafted back to generate 1,000+ yards in consecutive seasons. That includes 2019, when he finished 16^th in attempts (224), 14^th in rushing yards (1,011), and averaged 4.5 per attempt. Anyone who is contending with running back issues due to injuries, substandard production, or the arrival of bye weeks, should seize Lindsay from their waiver wire this week.

Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints

60% rostered

Murray is making his initial appearance of the season in this column, as his availability has gradually increased to exactly 40% of all leagues.  He garnered 12+ rushing attempts during three of the Saints’ first four matchups (12/15/14) and generated 184 yards during those contests. He also accrued 62 yards during New Orleans’ victory at Detroit, while also producing his first two touchdowns of the season.

ALL ABOARD ? @LataviusM

? @NFLonFox // ? #Saints App pic.twitter.com/zssZU59sjU

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 4, 2020

However, these favorable numbers do not even present the most compelling reason to target Murray for your roster. The seventh-year back is still included within the select group of backups that can ascend into RB1 status if their responsibilities would suddenly expand. Murray commandeered lead back duties in Weeks 7-8 last season while Alvin Kamara was sidelined (ankle), and assembled 221 yards and three touchdowns. He also led all backs in scoring during that sequence and remains capable of accumulating sizable yardage if Kamara is absent during the season. This provides an incentive for anyone with Kamara on their rosters to secure Murray. It also supplies motivation for anyone else to stash him this week.

Adrian Peterson, Detroit Lions

58% rostered

The addition of Peterson appeared to create an extra layer of congestion to Detroit’s backfield committee. But despite the ongoing potential of fluctuating workloads for Peterson, Kerryon Johnson, and rookie D’Andre Swift, Peterson has consistently been entrusted with the majority of touches by Detroit’s offensive decision-makers. He has paced the Lions in carries during three of their four matchups while being allotted at least 11 attempts during those games. Swift has been deployed primarily as a pass-catcher (16 targets/13 receptions), while Kerryon Johnson has been relegated to only minuscule involvement.

? GROWN MAN TD ?@AdrianPeterson #NOvsDET | ? FOX | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/qNalP9CXiI

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) October 4, 2020

Peterson now leads Detroit's backfield in rushing attempts (54) and rushing yardage (245). That includes his workload (33 carries) and output (111 yards) during the Lions’ last two matchups, as Peterson continues to perform as the team's lead back. He is also averaging 4.8 yards per attempt while continuing to display efficiency and resilience that defy his age. He can function in the flex for fantasy GMs, although you will need to wait until after Detroit’s Week 5 back to use him.

Dark Horses - Week 5 Waiver Wire Running Backs 

This group consists of running backs that can be added if you are willing to wait for the possibility of a larger role during the year, or consider your situation to be desperate due to injuries.

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

39% rostered

Mattison’s presence in this weekly column has been consistent since he became the direct backup to Dalvin Cook. That is due to a combination of his continued availability in the majority of leagues, and the massive production that he could deliver if he suddenly inherits Minnesota’s lead back duties for any reason. Cook’s extensive workload has placed him fourth overall with 75 carries, while he has soared to the league lead in rushing yardage (424) and touchdowns (6). Mattison’s role as Minnesota’s RB2 has resulted in an average of six attempts per game. 

.@AlexMattison22 finds the end zone ?#BroncosInTheNFL | #Skol

pic.twitter.com/Cwrfjyghqf

— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) October 4, 2020

However, he has accrued 107 yards (4.6 per attempt) during his four contests and scored his first touchdown of the season during the Vikings’ Week 4 matchup in Houston. Cook is entrenched as the foundation of Minnesota’s offense. But Mattison would instantly absorb a heavy workload if Cook would be sidelined for any reason. If that scenario develops, Mattison would vault into RB1 candidacy for anyone who has secured him for their rosters.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots

26% rostered

The second-year back is now healthy after undergoing pinkie surgery in early September. He had performed impressively during training camp and was a strong candidate to seize an expanded role within the Patriots’ congested backfield prior to that issue. Harris returned to practice last week, which launched a 21-day period in which New England can activate him to their 53-man roster.

If he resurfaces for the Patriots' matchup in Kansas City as expected, he will be blended into a mix that will also include Rex Burkhead, and James White – who will also reemerge after his absence from the team. Sony Michel will be sidelined with a quad injury this week, as it remains difficult to generate a specific forecast concerning the touch distribution between New England’s backfield options, Harris did commandeer a large percentage of reps during training camp. Managers have an opportunity to secure him this week before he gains greater popularity as a roster addition.

Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams

43% rostered

Brown’s availability had steadily decreased as managers responded to Darrell Henderson’s recent statistical explosion. The second-year back had ignited for 195 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries (6.25 per attempt) in Weeks 2-3 while Brown had amassed 66 yards on 18 attempts during that span. However, even though Henderson had appeared to have commandeered lead back responsibilities following his recent surge, he only carried eight times in Week 4 and manufactured just 22 yards (2.8 per attempt).

Brown led the Rams with nine carries and generated 37 yards (4.1 per attempt). Brown also collected five of his six targets, as managers were reminded that the touch distribution between LA’s running backs can easily fluctuate under Sean McVay. Attempting to navigate the potential usage for both Brown and Henderson will become even more cumbersome whenever Cam Akers overcomes his rib injury. But Brown can still present fantasy GMs with a viable flex option. That should persuade you to secure him if he is available in your leagues.

Also-Rans - Time To Say Goodbye

These backs can be dropped in order to secure a running back with greater potential to bolster your scoring during the year.

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions 

28% rostered   

Detroit’s deployment of a second-round selection on Swift during last April’s NFL Draft was an indication that Johnson’s tenure as the Lions’ lead back was reaching a conclusion. Then, the team’s decision to sign Adrian Peterson in early September accelerated Johnson’s decline in usage. Peterson’s domination of rushing attempts and his ability to take advantage of his opportunities have separated him from Johnson – who has failed to surpass a 32% snap share in any of Detroit’s four contests.

Johnson has been allotted just 21 attempts during that sequence. He has also carried just six times during the Lions’ last two matchups and has manufactured just 25 yards during that sequence. While Swift has not been highly involved in the offense, that is destined to change. An expanded workload for the rookie would combine with Peterson’s sizable touch total to solidify the massive constraints on Johnson’s workload. This removes any reason for managers to retain him on their rosters.

Jordan Howard, Miami Dolphins

43% rostered

Howard’s weekly yardage totals have not even matched his surprisingly low touch totals. But he has inexplicably remained entrenched on rosters in over 40% of all leagues. Despite offseason expectations that Howard would function as the Dolphins’ primary back, he has carried the ball just 18 times. He has also failed to average even 1.0 yards per attempt (0.8) while manufacturing an anemic 14 yards. He did register his first reception of the season in Week 4, but he also lost three yards on that catch.

Myles Gaskin has confiscated Miami’s lead back duties (66 touches/305 total yards), and it is highly unlikely that Howard will reestablish any beneficial form of relevance. This renders him incapable of providing managers with fantasy points unless he is able to produce a touchdown near the end zone. That eliminates any reason for starting him, while also eviscerating the likelihood that he will ever function as a reliable option for your roster. This should provide the incentive for fantasy GMs to remove Howard. It will also supply the opportunity to locate an alternative option that will deliver yardage and points.

Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins

30% rostered

Gaskin’s ability to perform effectively in his new role as the Dolphins’ primary back has also presented fantasy GMs with enormous motivation to extract Breida from their rosters. Gaskin has now averaged 48 rushing yards during Miami’s four contests, while also capturing 18 of his 20 targets. This has solidified his status as the Dolphins' lead back while elevating him to a favorable location within the fantasy landscape.

However, the forecast for Breida is less favorable. He has now been relegated to 18 carries since the season opener while assembling only 72 yards. That includes his minimal involvement in Weeks 3-4 when Breida was allotted just six attempts and managed just 13 yards on the ground. Breida’s snap share has also failed to exceed 22% in any of the Dolphins’ matchups. There is no rationale for believing that Breida’s workload will expand, which leaves no incentive to keep him on your rosters.

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