Injury Spin - Five Running Backs To Target

August 6, 2018

Inside Injuries discusses five running backs they love for 2018 fantasy football drafts, based on several factors including injury histories and overall upside.

Running backs are a critical component for any winning fantasy football team, and our friends at Inside Injuries are here today to talk about some of their favorite running back draft targets for 2018.

In case you weren't aware, Inside Injuries predicts the impact of injuries on player performance by using data analytics, medical expertise and statistical modeling. You can read all about them and the great work they do on Twitter @InsideInjuries.

Today's article provides that injury spin and looks at injury histories to help solidify some draft day decisions. Some of these players may feel like more obvious candidates for fantasy football drafts, but let's not forget that every winning fantasy team starts with owning fantasy workhorses and drafting studs. Picking the right player in the early rounds is just as important as nailing those middle and late-round picks as well.

Early-Round Running Backs to Draft

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Barkley is easily this season’s most high-profile rookie, mainly because of the spectacle he caused at the 2018 Combine where he ran a 4.41 40-yard dash, completed 29 reps in the weight lifting competition (more than many offensive linemen) and basically solidified his standing as a top first round draft pick. The Giants traded up to pick Barkley with the intention of building their offense around his talents, which is why he’s already a first round pick in fantasy drafts.

Barkley has been favorably compared to Ezekiel Elliot and David Johnson in terms of his size, strength, speed, and vision. Some analysts believe that the Giants could easily vault to the top of the standings using Barkley’s running prowess to open up the passing game for Eli Manning. Most projections favor Barkley putting together a season with 1,000-plus rushing yards and roughly 30 receptions for another 400-450 yards as his floor with the potential for a lot more.

He enters his rookie season with a relatively clean injury history, and he will begin the season at a Peak (97%) Health Performance Factor. During his college years he dealt with a few minor ankle sprains. For the last time Barkley missed time during football season you have to go all the way back to 2015, when he sat out two games during his freshman season with a sprained ankle. Some fantasy owners shy away from rookies as a matter of practice, but Barkley is one rookie you can’t pass on if he happens to be available to you in the latter half of round one. As of this writing, Barkley’s average draft position is 6.3 with 5 as a high and 8 as the low according to Fantasypros.com consensus ADP data. He is either the fifth or sixth ranked running back in most expert rankings.

Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers kicked 2017 starting RB, Carlos Hyde, to the curb and signed free agent McKinnon to a four-year deal that will make him one of the highest paid running backs in the NFL. McKinnon has the size, strength and speed to be one of the NFL’s best running backs, but as we begin his fifth NFL season, he’s never been asked to carry a full running back workload. His busiest season in the ground game was 2016, when he amassed 159 carries for 539 rushing yards, and his big season in the passing game was 2017, when he caught 51 passes for 421 yards.

The 49ers are clearly committed to McKinnon as their top running back. With Jimmy Garoppolo under center and head coach Kyle Shanahan’s pass-oriented offense in place, McKinnon is in a position perfectly suited to his talents. Shanahan’s offenses have produced a Top-15 running back in five of the last six seasons, and he turned Devonta Freeman into a stud running back during his first two seasons coaching the Atlanta Falcons. McKinnon has averaged just 3.59 yards per carry over the last two seasons with Minnesota, behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranked among the bottom five NFL teams both years. The 49ers’ offensive line will enter this season ranked 16^th best in the NFL.

Of course, all the hype surrounding McKinnon’s arrival in San Francisco has driven his Average Draft Position (ADP) upward this summer, and that trend could continue as we get closer to the season opener. One major reason we’re recommending McKinnon for fantasy owners is his relatively clean injury history, especially in recent years. He’s had injuries to his lower back, shoulder and ankles as recently as 2017, but he missed just one game due to injury last season, and he has not been place on Injured Reserve since 2014. McKinnon's Injury Risk is very Low at just 8%.

Look for McKinnon to put together a season with 200-plus carries, which should produce something close to 850-1000 rushing yards. In addition, we’re projecting that he catches something like 65-75 passes for another 600-700 yards. We’re also projecting that he ends up with 8-10 touchdowns as a result of his rushing and pass efforts.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

Second-year running back Christian McCaffrey is best described as the premier boom or bust RB of the 2018 season. In the running game, McCaffrey wasn’t all that good. He racked up just 435 rushing yards on 117 carries, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. However, in the passing game, he led RBs in targets (113), was fifth in receiving yards, tied for second in receiving touchdowns, and he finished at RB16, a phenomenal accomplishment for a rookie. As good as he was, though, he ended up with just six regular season games in which he scored double-digit fantasy points and seven games in which he scored less than six.

The signing of C.J. Anderson ensures that McCaffrey won’t get all of them, but he bulked up during the offseason and will almost certainly get at least some of them. So, if you figure on another busy season with 80-100 receptions in the passing game, and somewhere around 150-160 carries in the run game, there is no reason why McCaffrey can’t finish as a Top-15 RB again this year, and possibly higher. That gives him solid RB2 value, especially in PPR formats. Inside Injuries’ algorithm favors McCaffrey because of his relatively clean medical record, and you can anticipate that he will begin this season at his Peak Health Performance Factor.

Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins

At this point, you may be sensing a theme in the narrative of these running back choices for 2018. Derrius Guice is yet another running back who comes packed with tremendous upside along with some potential risks. Guice was set to be a first-round pick in the 2018 draft, but some off-field issues derailed his status and he fell to the Washington Redskins late in the second round. The Redskins have struggled to run the ball over the last few years, so the addition of Guice, who can only be described as a draft day bargain, may turn out to be pivotal for the team’s overall outlook.

Guice is completely healthy and expected to begin the season as the Redskins’ featured running back for at least first and second down. Third down and passing situations could fall to RB Chris Thompson since he handled those situations well last season. The distribution of carries and targets to the boys in the backfield will be heavily influenced by the RB who thrives in pass protection. Both Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley lost their first and second down touches to Thompson because of their problems in pass protection schemes and catching passes out of the backfield, putting the ball on the ground, and generally ineffective running.

There is no question that Thompson will thrive in a third down/passing role, which instantly gives him some value in PPR leagues. Guice will see plenty of work on first and second down, but where he goes from there is an open question that will depend on his pass protection work and his ability to catch short passes, especially in tight windows. Projections for Guice generally have him right on the fringe of the Top 15, move the ball just enough to reach the 1,000 rushing yard threshold. But it’s the passing game that will boost his totals enough to be a fantasy stud. Just keep in mind that his upside is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of a mid-RB2.

Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas Cowboys

Elliot is probably the easiest RB to choose for a big season from this list. He trampled all over the league and led all running backs during the 2016 season with 1,631 rushing yards. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored 15 TDs. He also nabbed 11.3 yards per reception and racked up 19.7 fantasy points per game, a figure bested only by David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell.

Assuming he can stay 100 percent healthy and avoid the legal problems and suspensions that derailed his 2017 campaign, Elliot should once again produce RB1 numbers running behind what is arguably one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Last season, Elliot produced 4.1 yards per carry and 10.3 yards per reception, significantly lower than his 2016 rookie season numbers (5.1/carry, 11.3/reception) but still pretty good compared to the rest of the NFL running backs.

Fast forward to 2018, and it’s obvious that the Cowboys are planning to recapture the dynamic offense they had in 2016 with Elliot and quarterback Dak Prescott. The team is hoping that without the disruptions that Elliot’s suspension caused, they will be able to redevelop the offensive rhythm of 2016 and use Elliot’s running game to open up the passing game for Prescott as it did during their magical rookie season together. The Cowboys still have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the game and they’ve revamped the receiver corps by subtracting Dez Bryant, drafting a couple of promising rookies (Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson), and signing free agent receiver Allen Hurns.

A fully healthy Elliot enters 2018 with a Peak Health Performance Factor and the expectation that he’ll provide nothing less than Top 3 running back production. Draft him with confidence and you can pretty much “set him and forget him” in your fantasy lineup every week.

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