Running Back Stat Sleepers - Elusiveness Rating

August 4, 2020

Antonio Losada identifies NFL running back sleepers and fantasy football draft targets based on elusiveness rating, highlighting those primed to bring strong value in 2020.

A lot of elements go into making a running back desirable for fantasy football. Opportunity, a good offensive line, and a good offense are all key elements. However, something equally important is how elusive those running backs are, this includes breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact.

Often players who have these traits fall into the category of the best rushers in the league. Unfortunately, sometimes elusive running backs do not have a great opportunity, a good offensive line or a good offense, leading to them being pushed down draft boards. If those running backs can get the opportunity then their ability to be elusive can be enough to make them fantasy relevant despite their offense or offensive line.

Today, I'm looking at running backs' elusive rating from the 2019 season using PFF's Elusive Rating formula (Forced Missed Tackles) / (Carries + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact per Attempt * 100), trying to highlight four potential sleepers for the 2020 fantasy football season given their 2019 numbers.

2020 Elusive Rating Sleepers

Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let's address the elephant in the room first: not only do the Bucs have two studs at wide receiver but now they also feature a great (at least formerly) tight end in Rob Gronkowski and have the GOAT-quarterback playing for them in Tom Brady. The chances for Tampa's backfield to rack up opportunities and touches will be limited, that's for sure. On top of that, they drafted Ke'Shawn Vaughn to battle Jones for carries.

With that out of the way, let's focus on the positive side of things for Jones: the RB rushed the ball 172 times for 724 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 4.21 YPC. He also logged 31 receptions on just 40 targets for 309 yards. Following PFF's Elusive Rating (ER) calculation, Jones had the sixth-best rating among rushers with 75+ carries. Not bad, huh?

In fact, Jones racked up 106 more yards after contact than before it, good for a positive-0.6 yard-difference favoring what he did after being touched by any defender. He broke 23 tackles and needed only 7.5 attempts per BT, which ranked fourth in the NFL. Again, he did all that in just 172 rushing attempts and 40 targets, so even on a shared backfield, he should get there once more in 2020. Pretty nice upside for someone getting drafted as the RB33 with a 104.3 ADP.

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks

Although Rashard Penny should increase his usage next season, Carson is still the clear go-to running back of the Seahawks. Last year, Carson carried the ball a monster 278 times for 1,230 yards on the ground and seven scores. His 4.42 YPC were the 23th-highest mark among 75+ ruAtt rushers. He also added 266 yards on 37 receptions, good for an ER of 23.1 (10th-best in the NFL).

I know the volume was super high, but that doesn't make Carson's 28 broken tackles less impressive by any means. Those 28 ranked him sixth in the league leaderboard, just four shy of leaders Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones. Carson averaged a broken tackle each 9.9 rushing attempts, which helped him average virtually two broken tackles per game. That is even more impressive and useful considering Carson logged 238 more rushing yards after contact than before, a 2.6-yard-difference in favor of the former.

There were only 10 rushers in the NFL with 75+ rushing attempts and better averages after contact than Carson, and all but Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry did so on lower volume. Carson is currently the RB22 off the board with an ADP of just 58.5 making him a potential affordable stud at the position.

Mark Ingram II, Baltimore Ravens

Ingram's and Carson's numbers can't be more similar. Playing under Lamar Jackson--and given the QBs rushing prowess--helped Ingram a lot in 2019 helping him to reach 1,018 rushing yards on just 202 rushing attempts (10 touchdowns included) while he also logged 247 receiving yards on 26/29 receptions. Can't get much more efficient.

Ingram broke 18 tackles, a low number by itself but much better if put alongside his volume: Ingram only needed 11.2 rushing attempts per broken tackle, good for the 18th-best mark among RBs with 75+ rushing attempts. In terms of pure ER, he was even better has he had the 11th-best mark in the NFL, almost the same as Carson himself.

The Ravens no. 1 RB is currently getting off draft boards even later than Carson as the RB28 with an ADP of 76.4 overall. Paying a sixth- or seventh-round pick for someone leading a backfield and playing in a fireworks-offense as Baltimore's is far from a risky move, so you can target Ingram as much as you want in your 2020 drafts without remorse.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

I have left the ultimate sleeper and flier for the last entry of the column. We all know Pollard is a no. 2 running back all day. Ezekiel Elliott is going nowhere barring injury, and Pollard is no more than a simple backup in the NFL. That being said, what a handcuff he is. Last season Pollard rushed the ball 86 times for 455 yards and a couple of touchdowns and added 107 yards through the air on 15/20 receptions.

Those stats averaged to 5.29 YPC (third-highest in the league) and made Pollard an overly-efficient player. He broke 10 tackles and needed just 8.6 rushing attempts to break one on average. That mark was the seventh-best in the league, and Pollard's finished 2019 with the highest ER in the NFL among RBs with 75+ rushing attempts. No joke, folks.

The most impressive stat of Pollard: 309 yards after contact to 146 before for a league-leading 163-yard-difference. Those 3.6 yards of difference per attempt led the league too, 0.4 above second-place Damien Williams. While it makes sense that Pollard is just the RB48 (ADP 155.7) currently given his projections, if Elliott misses time (and even if he doesn't) Pollard can turn into a league-winning late draft pick.