Running Back Stat Sleepers - Elusiveness Rating

March 23, 2022

Antonio Losada identifies NFL running back sleepers and fantasy football draft targets based on elusiveness rating, highlighting those primed to bring strong value in 2022.

A lot of elements go into making a running back desirable for fantasy football. Opportunity, a good offensive line, and a good offense are all key elements. However, something equally important is how elusive those running backs are, this includes breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact.

Often players who have these traits fall into the category of the best rushers in the league. Unfortunately, sometimes elusive running backs do not have a great opportunity, a good offensive line or a good offense, leading to them being pushed down draft boards. If those running backs can get the opportunity then their ability to be elusive can be enough to make them fantasy relevant despite their offense or offensive line.

Today, I'm looking at running backs' elusive rating from the 2021 season using PFF's Elusive Rating formula "[Forced Missed Tackles / (Carries + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact per Attempt] * 100", trying to highlight four potential sleepers for the 2022 fantasy football season given their 2021 numbers.

2022 Elusive Rating Sleepers

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

I know this is hardly a "sleeper", but it's not that I'm purely looking at bargains here. I'm rather just focusing on performance levels without caring that much about ADP given how early it is in the offseason and how much stuff has yet to happen starting with Free Agency, the draft, the summer camps, etc... Jones, he of Green Bay's three-headed monster offense will work on a very similar environment next season as he did in 2021 with the two of QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams returning to the Tundra. Positive point right there. If you asked me, it could have gone much better for Jones in 2021 in terms of, well, everything.

Yes, you're going to bitch about that assessment and how "bad" Jones was after putting up a "measly" RB11 finish in PPR leagues. To hell with that. In fact, hurray! If that lowers Jones' price entering 2022 fantasy drafts, I'm all for it. Mostly because it's not that everybody can rush the rock for nearly 800 yards while adding almost 400 more on the passing game, not to mention the rushing TDs will bounce back whether you like it or not. Jones was hella smooth at dodging tacklers, breaking 30 over the year on 223 touches (14.5% BrkTkl Rate) needing just 7.4 touches per BrkTkl, the ninth-best mark among RBs with 150+ touches. Jones' 4.64 ELU figure was also the 18th-best among those in that cohort, while his ELU100 was a top-10 mark among players with at least 200+ touches. A simple statistical nugget proving Jones' elusiveness: he racked up 62% of his rushing yardage after contact and a ratio of 1.63 YAC:YBC.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

It's been a while since Conner broke out a few years ago as Le'Veon Bell's backup when the veteran decided to sit out the 2018 season not playing for the Steelers. So all the then-sophomore Conner did was get the rock and blast ahead in possession of it bulldozing his way toward a top-30 finish in PPR formats and a sublime RB6 campaign. That, of course, boosted his ADP to that of a first-round player for the 2019 season, and though his numbers regressed a bit Conner was still good for an RB3 finish, same as in 2020. And finally out of Pittsburgh for good, the 'Zona Explosion came in 2021: 258+ PPR points and a phenomenal RB5 finish that most probably will boost Conner's ADP to a low-first/high-second round price.

Makes sense, because this guy is still hella young (entering his age-27 season in 2022) while his underlying numbers are very tasty. Conner's (probably) not going to score 15+ TDs on the ground for a second consecutive season next year, but he still put up the 24th-highest rushing yardage while also adding 375 on pass-plays (37 receptions). Conner's 6.10 ELU (check the formula in the intro) ranked as the fourth-highest mark among RBs last year, and normalizing every running back ELU mark to a per-100-touches basis he'd still be the seventh-best rusher of the year in terms of elusiveness. That's because he broke 35 tackles on 239 touches for a rate of 14.6%, the seventh-highest figure among rushers with 150+ touches and an even better fourth-best among RBs with at least 239 touches on the year (his actual mark).

Damien Harris, New England Patriots

There is nothing mind-blowing about Damien Harris' player profile. He's the typical, classic, small-but-strong-enough rusher with little to offer on the passing game. Not that we worry that much about that issue, though, given his rushing figures. And it is not that Harris is bad at catching the rock and advancing it (he went 18-of-20 receiving for 132 yards, mind you) but he's just not used on that front with New England relying heavily on him mostly on the rushing game.

Harris finished the year approaching the thousand-yard mark with 929 rushing yards on 202 carries for a monster 15 TDs on the year (add the 132 receiving yards and he sits at 1,061; only one of 23 RBs reaching that mark in 2021). Harris' 4.92 ELU was above the marks posted by the likes of Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor just to name a few. His per-100-touch was a top-12 mark, ranking above James Robinson's and Alvin Kamara's figures. The best of all is that Harris was so elusive without actual help from strong/high-volume passing game numbers, which translate purely to his elusiveness being totally linked to his rushing numbers. Harris broke 26 tackles over the season, or one every 8.5 touches. He balanced his rushing with a near 50/50 split on YAC and YAB, posting 1.07 YAC per every YAB he got.

Michael Carter, New York Jets

A fourth-round rookie leading the Jets? Why not! New York spent a mid-round pick in Carter but the rook finished the year as the best skill-position Jet after posting a 156+ PPR tally over his 14 games played, only barely topped by QB Zach Wilson's 158 FP. Carter total numbers were never going to be great because of his "low"451 snaps played, of course, but if you look at the dashboard above you will find the freshman putting up 75th-or-higher percentile numbers in pretty much all underlying categories. That's an incredible foundation to build from.

Carter, although only a 19th-percentile player at Evaded Tackles/G (3.9 per, figure above), was good enough to average the 11th-best ELU mark among RBs with 150+ touches over the year, and a ridiculous fourth-best figure on the ELU100 front. That makes all of the sense when you look at his 28 BrkTkl (15.3% rate considering all of his touches) and his fantastic production on both the ground and the passing game. Even better: Carter finished the year averaging 2.24 YAC to every YBC racking up 69.2% of his total rushing yards after contact. Here's hoping NYJ gives this man a full-time role (600+ snaps and bonafide RB1 status) and lets him loose because the potential is infinite.