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Antonio Losada identifies NFL running back sleepers and fantasy football draft targets based on elusiveness rating, highlighting those primed to bring strong value in 2021.
A lot of elements go into making a running back desirable for fantasy football. Opportunity, a good offensive line, and a good offense are all key elements. However, something equally important is how elusive those running backs are, this includes breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact.
Often players who have these traits fall into the category of the best rushers in the league. Unfortunately, sometimes elusive running backs do not have a great opportunity, a good offensive line or a good offense, leading to them being pushed down draft boards. If those running backs can get the opportunity then their ability to be elusive can be enough to make them fantasy relevant despite their offense or offensive line.
Today, I'm looking at running backs' elusive rating from the 2019 season using PFF's Elusive Rating formula (Forced Missed Tackles) / (Carries + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact per Attempt * 100), trying to highlight four potential sleepers for the 2021 fantasy football season given their 2020 numbers.
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2021 Elusive Rating Sleepers
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
If you have checked the intro to this article, you already know how we define "elusiveness." If you haven't, well, let's boil it down to how good a rusher is at avoiding getting tackled considering both his carries and completed-reception plays, which means we're looking to all touches rather than just rushing actions without caring about the passing game. And on that front, not many players were as good as Gus Edwards was last season playing into Baltimore's three-headed backfield.
When it comes to this type of "rating" metrics, outliers with small samples always pop up. Well, even without applying any minimum threshold to snaps or touches for this one, Edwards would still be the 20th most-elusive RB of 2020. Applying a sanitized minimum of 75+ touches on the year, Edwards would rank 12th and into the 83rd percentile in ELU (Elusive Rating) with a 19.4 mark. That compares to Mark Ingram's 27th rank and J.K. Dobbins' 31st.
A lot of fantasy GMs are into Dobbins in the early fantasy-draft season, making his ADP sky-rocket. I'm not saying he's a bad option, but given Gus the Bus' current ADP of 131 (10th round or later in most 12-team leagues), you would at least have to consider Edwards a magnificent backup if you pick Dobbins earlier, and even an RB2 with upside for an RB1 finish if all things align for him.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Arizona passed on adding true competitors to its backfield through the draft, but they already had added veteran James Conner to it days before. The Cardinals are entering 2021 with both Chase Edmonds and the aforementioned Conner as their top-two rushers and backfield leaders. Edmonds surely looks like the go-to, every-down back of the team, but are we sure he should really out-snap/touch Conner on a per-game basis?
Conner has never played a full 16-game season, which is one of the heaviest knocks on him yearly--his health and availability. That being said, though, he's been a top-35 RB in all of the last three years, reaching at least 145.5 PPR points. His average PPG marks have dropped from 21.5 in 2018, to 14.6 and finally 12.7 last year. No bueno. But Conner is making the most of his chances, and nobody can't argue that.
When it comes to evading tackles, forcing missed ones, and overall ELU, Conner is one of the best doing it. Conner racked up 17 broken tackles, evaded 52, and posted a 15.5 ELU mark in 2020. Those three numbers rank 11th, 15th, and 17th among the 69th RBs with at least 75 touches last season. That is, Conner was at least into the 75th percentile in all of those statistical categories. With the 19th-most touches in 2020 and an RB27 finish, the slightest of improvements would see Conner finish as an RB2 in 2021.
J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team
If you have been paying attention to ADP trends, you know that Antonio Gibson is second-round material these days while his teammate J.D. McKissic is currently sitting at a 159 ADP--almost a late-round flier, that is. Am I here to say that McKissic is the better player of the two and that the collective of fantasy GMs are getting it all wrong when it comes to Washington's backfield? Nope. Am I here to offer McKissic as a very good option to fill your roster with a late pick? You bet!
Gibson was stellar at playing football in 2020. He finished RB13 with 202.2 fantasy points and an average of 14.4. Not a bad year, indeed. The "problem", though, is that the Footies ran a two-man backfield comprised of Gibson and McKissic with the latter finishing just 41 touches short of Gibson while racking up 191.4 FP himself and averaging 12 PPG on the season for an RB17 finish. Now you explain to me the near-130 ADP difference.
J.D. McKissic was better than Gibson on a per-touch basis, putting up 1.17 FP/touch to Gibson's 1.00. McKissic finished the year as a top-24 RB in ELU with a 12.0 mark, evading 27 tackles and breaking 15 (one every 16 rushing attempts). Gibson was better in all of those tackle-efficiency metrics, but again, the key here is the super-high discount in ADP and McKissic all-around game with his 589 (second-most) receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs in 2020.
Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons
With all of the information we have in hand to this day, Atlanta's RB2 projects to be... Cordarrelle Patterson? Qadree Ollison? Javian Hawkins? Ugh. What we know for sure is that Mike Davis has everything to thrive as the leading rusher of the Falcons entering 2021 after putting on a monster year backing up (and stepping into his role) Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last season.
To wit: 12 games started and 15 games played, only three of them sharing the field with CMC, and an overall 206.5 PPR points on the year for an average of 13.8 and an RB1 finish for Mike Davis, who was the 12th-best rusher of the season in PPR leagues. Just 20 RBs reached 200+ touches in 2020, Mike Davis among them. Of those making it to that group, Davis posted the seventh-highest FP/touch, broke 21 tackles (tied for the fourth-most), and evaded 72 (eighth most).
Put everything together, and Davis' 22.5 ELU mark was only bested by three rushers in 2020 with the "cheapest" of them having an ADP of 40 already compared to Davis' 87 ADP. That's more than double, and almost four full rounds of distance. Mike Davis proved his worth last season on an empty backfield with CMC out, and it is not that Atlanta has plenty of options in its backfield nowadays. Expect fireworks from Davis, folks.
Todd Gurley, Free Agent
Speaking of Atlanta... what about the now-former Falcon and still free agent Todd Gurley? I struggle thinking of a much more maligned rusher than Gurley of late. Paying Gurley five million wasn't entirely overboard, not that we care a single bit about it, though! Your NFL teams pay, we just enjoy the game.
Gurley wasn't a league-winning RB in 2020, that's right. In fact, last year was his worst since his sophomore season and all he could do was finish with 163.2 fantasy points good for RB29, not even reaching RB2 levels of play. Most of the problems came in the passing game, as he finished the year without a single receiving touchdown on 25 receptions. That being said, he still put up nine rushing TD and a career-low 678 rushing yards on 195 carries.
While those numbers don't jump off the page, Gurley was good enough to break 19 tackles (or one every 10.3 rushing attempts), evade 38 tackles, and post a 15.5 ELU mark (top-12 among RBs with 150+ touches. Even on a down year on the receiving end, Gurley still thrived on the ground. Remember, this guy is playing his age-27 season in 2021, and although he will most probably enter the season as the RB2 of the franchise that signs him, odds are he still gets a ton of reps for whoever decides to go get him. Definitely not your weekly RB1/RB2 play, but someone to keep an eye on as a late-round flier or early WW target.
