RADIO
Plunging into the world of football analytics is without question a great way to find fantasy sleepers for the coming season. Especially in the case of running backs, considering overall elusiveness is arguably the best way to determine how good (or bad) a player's performance was. And that's what this is all about.
I will be looking at advanced rushing data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, and on top of that, crossing those numbers with 2021 ADP values from fantasy drafts up to this date in order to find the biggest busts poised to have poor seasons this year given their 2020 numbers. All of it will be focused on how many missed tackles these players forced, how often they broke tackles relative to volume, and their tendency to accumulate yardage after contact.
The average draft position definitely plays a role here, considering many of these players are getting drafted way early when looking at his underlying numbers. Let's get to it!
2021 Missed Tackles Forced Busts
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
It's funny how the list turned out to be ordered (alphabetically), as it follows the players' ADPs (at the time of this writing) to a tee. Starting with no other than Rams rusher Cam Akers and his first-round drafting position. Uh oh, talk about a rise. Akers was getting drafted around the 46th spot in 2020 drafts, but that has gone all the way up to the 10th spot this early in the drafting season following a good-not-great campaign (101.8 total PPR points, 7.8 FPG). The thing is Los Angeles let RB Malcolm Brown go, didn't add a body to the backfield, and Akers already out-touched his main competition Darrell Henderson last season.
Akers, though not a bad rusher per se, wasn't the most efficient out there. That being said, he got better as the season grew older, going from a putrid 3.3 FPG average in W1-W10 to a much better 13.2 FPG in W11-W17. In any case, Akers was one of only 38 RBs with 150+ touches on the season. Among those, he ranked third-worst in FPG and FP per snap and second-worst in FP per touch. Ugh.
As a pure-rusher with almost no upside on the passing game (although he was quite efficient there), Akers' low six broken tackles came every 24+ rushing attempts. That's one of the worst marks league-wide. Only Joe Mixon and Jerick McKinnon averaged more ruAtt/BknTkl among those with more than three broken tackles. Akers is in a prime position when it comes to opportunity, and this doesn't mean you shouldn't draft him. I'm just hesitant he should be going as early as he is doing it nowadays.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
I am Joe Mixon no. 1 stan. Can't lie to you about that. It is what it is, and I'll die on this hill if it's necessary. But Mixon has been quite disappointing for too long. Four years into his career, Mixon has finished inside the RB1 realm just once in 2019 with one finish in the RB2, RB3, and RB4 realm in his other three years as a pro. Not what you want to know about a perennial top-25 ADP player attached to RB1 average draft positions yearly.
Mixon missed more than half of last year while playing only six games, but 2020 turned out to be really close to his best year (2018) on a per-game basis with 16.6 FPG to his sophomore's 17.4 FPG average. I guess the thing with Mixon's current ADP has all to do with competition, as Gio Bernard is gone and Cincy just brought Samaje Perine to be Mixon's backfield partner. Not the greatest second fiddle, that's for sure. Oh, and just in case, 42% of Mixon's total PPR points last season came in a single 42.1-FP game against Jacksonville. Get scared, folks.
On top of everything, Mixon broke three tackles through the 2020 season for a monster average of 39.7 rushing attempts between them. That's an insanely bad mark. So bad in fact that it's the third-worst among all 2020 rushers, the second-worst if we remove Leonard Fournette (no broken tackles at all), and the absolute worst among players with 100+ rushing attempts. The late-second ADP isn't outrageous, but RBs with similar per-snap and per-touch production are getting drafted all above 100 ADPs with the exception of Cam Akers (feel free to read his section above if you haven't already). Love is in the air, only it's vanishing quickly.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Poor Miles can't catch a break. Sanders had a fantastic rookie season that saw him finish 2019 as the RB15. In 2020, though, he missed four games entirely, playing only 12 but still rising his per-game average from 13.7 to 14.2 FPG. The missed time though reduced his total PPR points to 170.4, good for RB23, still in the RB2 realm. Entering 2021, the Eagles have opted to move on from Carson Wentz and make Jalen Hurts their QB1 while bringing Lions' cap-casualty Kerryon Johnson to their backfield. Rushing-QB + "tougher" (at least bulkier) competition is just not boding well for Sanders if you ask me.
Sanders is getting drafted at the start of the third round as we reach mid-May. That is, by all accounts, a little bit risky to say the least. I have ordered all 2020 rushers (min. 75 touches) by FP/touch and Sanders ranks in the 59th percentile with a 0.89 mark. That's on touches, though. On a per-snap basis, things are way truly worrying, and that might be the case (if not worse) once more this season with Philly bolstering the receiving corps and having Hurts as the QB1 from the get-go. Sanders' 0.29 FP/snap are in the 16th percentile among RBs in that same group. Ugh.
Only two players (Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ezekiel Elliott) have higher ADPs than Sanders' while averaging 0.34 or fewer FP/snap (36th percentile), but the upside of those two is quite higher than Sanders'. Miles Sanders also got to broke a measly nine tackles in his 12 games, which amounted to one BrkTkl every 18.2 rushing attempts. That was reflected in his high 1.34 Yards-Before-Contact/Yards-After-Contact ratio, as he had 497 YBC to 370 YAC. Sanders isn't a bad rusher but he relies a lot on volume without overly efficient numbers behind those counting stats, which makes me a little hesitant when it comes to drafting him as a near-second rounder.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
If Myles Gaskin has not been crowned the ultimate-offseason-winner, it must be as close to that as it gets. After Miami passed on adding rushers either via draft or free agency (yes, they signed Malcolm Brown, but that's a clear no. 2 RB at the very best), Myles Gaskin is now finding himself all alone in the Dolphins' backfield. Miami also let DeAndre Washington go, clearly opening the doors for Gaskin as the go-to tailback of the Fins going forward.
In 10 games last season, Gaskin put up a magnificent 164.2 PPR points to finish RB28 with an average of 16.4 FPG. Even though he missed ample time, Gaskin was steady when it came to producing points, never dropping below 9.2 and topping at 33.9 in Week 16. He already was a bell-cow in 2020, so odds are he doubles down on that come 2021. As is the case with all RBs highlighted here, though, Gaskin's gaudy numbers were more a product of high volume than they were the fruit of an over-efficient game.
Gaskin was able to break six tackles last season in 142 rushing attempts. That means he broke one every 23.7 attempts, which isn't anything to call home about. Only three other players (Mixon, Akers, and Jamaal Williams) posted worse marks while rushing the ball at least 100 times in 2020. Gaskin also posted a higher number of YBC (297) than YAC (287) and although there wasn't a wide gap there, it comes to show how he struggled to gain yardage once touched by the defense. At his current ADP of 86, I'm not too mad at getting shares of Gaskin. If he keeps getting higher as the trends show, I might seriously consider fading Gaskin for good in my drafts.
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers
Mostert's ADP tumbled a bit after the draft as the 49ers opted to draft RB Trey Sermon with a third-round pick. That nullified the room opened by Jerick McKinnon signing with Kansas City earlier this offseason, making San Francisco's backfield a three-man unit once more (Jeff Wilson Jr. should start the season as the RB2 behind Mostert).
Mostert needed a borderline-RB2 season in 2019 to get an ADP inside the first 300 picks (ADP 40) for the first time in his career entering last season. He went on to disappoint, missing half of the year and finishing RB48 with just 99.7 PPR points and a 12.5 FPG average in his eight games played. He was the best Niners tailback, but he got super-vultured on the touchdown front by Jeff Wilson Jr., who outscored Mostert with 10-to-three total touchdowns. Oh, and even McKinnon scored more, going for six scores on the year.
Rostering Mostert means risky business for fantasy GMs given his past and San Francisco's way of dealing with rushers. Mostert is also one of the most boring running backs out there. He racked up 346 YBC but only a paltry 175 YAC. The 1.98 YBC/YAC ratio was the highest (by far) by RBs with 100+ rushing attempts. Mostert only broke five tackles on the season, one every 20.8 attempts, which also ranked quite low (15th percentile among 46 RBs with 100+ ruAtt). Give the rock to Mostert, and he'll advance it until he hits the defense's wall. Once he gets there, though, consider the play dead.
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