Running Back Duos To Target on Draft Day - Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon, Devin Singletary, James Cook, and more

August 9, 2022

Each year there are running backs from the same team that both finish inside the top 24. Josh Constantinou highlights five backfields duos to target in 2022.

There are generally two types of backfield compositions in the NFL. The first is the workhorse approach, where one running back receives a high percentage of the overall volume and all other running backs are merely backups or insurance backs, who are only relevant for fantasy if the starter becomes injured. While this is ideal for fantasy, teams are consistently moving away from this approach to reduce injuries and keep their running backs fresh and explosive.

The second is the committee backfield, where multiple running backs receive a significant portion of the work. Although this reduces their overall volume for fantasy, they can still be very productive and impactful. Many of these situations will be fruitful for fantasy, so knowing which ones to target during the draft season will provide you with a distinct advantage.

Below you'll find some historical information on successful duos along with five backfields to target in 2022.

Historical Top-24 Duos

Although most fantasy managers will be forced to start running backs who finish outside the top-24, those inside the top-24 are the true difference makers over the course of a season. With this in mind, we'll set the bar as RB24 or better when reviewing the past five years of running back finishes, using a half-PPR scoring format.

There has been at least one duo each of the past five seasons with a total of 11. Depicted in the chart you'll find the year, team, and the name and fantasy finish of each player.

Top-24 RB Duos (2017-2021)

In most of the examples above, the first running back finishes inside the top-15 while the second finishes outside the top-20. This would align with teams utilizing a feature back, where the first player takes on the lead role and the second player receives a marginally lesser role.

There are also two examples of both players finishing outside the top-15, including the Broncos duo (Williams and Gordon) last season and the Vikings duo (McKinnon and Murray) in 2017. Additionally, there were two occasions where both players finished inside the top-10, which is very impressive. This included the Browns duo (Chubb and Hunt) in 2020 as well as the Saints duo (Kamara and Ingram) in 2017.

This illustrates the two different paths to success. The first is where both players have an almost identical split with similar value and the other is where the lead back is elite and the secondary back is still very productive.

Predictive Measures

In addition to having the knowledge of two possible paths mentioned above, it is also beneficial to explore some of the key metrics that were consistent among the 11 duos. This will enable a more accurate prediction of the duos to target in 2022.

The first three categories examined are the standard rushing statistics (attempts, yards, and touchdowns), which provide information about the volume and efficiency of the teams' running game. The next two are quantifying the success of the teams' offense (points per game and team record) and the final metric is measuring the involvement of the backfield in the passing game (running back target share).

Accompanying each category is the range of rankings the 11 teams fell within, the average ranking, and the percentage that finished in the top-15, also known as the top half of the league.

Top-24 Duo Team Metrics & Rankings

The rushing attempts and yards both had a very wide range, with seven of the 11 (64%) teams inside the top-15, including four inside the top-10. They also both had an average rank of 14th, meaning most of the teams were above average in rushing volume.

The rushing touchdowns were a little more top-heavy with a smaller range, a higher average rank of 11th, and eight of the 11 teams (73%) inside the top-15, including six inside the top-11. This makes a lot of sense because as we know touchdowns are paramount in fantasy.

When assessing the overall offense, the range was again fairly wide for both points per game and team record but the average ranking of 13th and 10th, respectively, were quite high. There were again eight inside the top-15 (73%) with all eight inside the top-nine for team record, including two occurrences of the team finishing first overall. This means generally the higher scoring, better offenses will be the ones to produce a top-24 duo.

The target share was very interesting because it was so polarized with a range from 1st-28th, including seven teams inside the top-nine and three leading the league. The teams that were not as potent on offense, were often the ones passing more due to game script, which was how their duo produced for fantasy.

Overall, this tells us that teams with a strong offense and a high-volume, efficient rushing attack are the most likely to produce top-24 duos, especially when their backfield is more involved in the passing game. There is, however, also an opportunity for the teams with a lesser offense to get there if the target share is very high.

Now that we know what to look for and the two compositions of backfields (even split or lead back with secondary back), let's explore the five backfields to target in 2022.

Repeat Customers

The first three backfields are proven because they were already on the list previously. This is a logical place to start given that past success is the strongest indicator of future success in fantasy football.

Duo #1 - Williams and Gordon (Denver Broncos)

After just completing this feat last season and receiving a massive quarterback upgrade, this duo is a no-brainer to target. Acquiring Russell Wilson should position this team to contend for both the division and playoffs, accumulating 10-14 wins in the process. Furthermore, they ranked 23rd in points per game last year, which they will undoubtedly best this season.

With Williams now projected to take over the lead role, he has top-12 upside and figures to be a top-15 back. He received 53 targets last season and will remain very involved in the receiving game again, likely improving on his RB17 finish in 2021.

Here's an example of his talent in the receiving game.

This moves Gordon, who the team trusts and values, into the secondary back role. With an innate ability to find the endzone, producing 10 total touchdowns again last year, Gordon has landed on this list three of the past four seasons, demonstrating his reliability and talent. He may see a dip from his RB18 finish but could very easily finish inside the top-24 one more time.

Duo #2 - Jones and Dillon (Green Bay Packers)

These two were the other duo to land on this list in 2021 and while the offense could regress, their utilization and target share makes them another great target. The Packers lost Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, creating 224 vacated targets. Although they signed Sammy Watkins and drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, it's unlikely those three along with Allen Lazard absorb all those vacated targets, meaning more will go to Jones and Dillon.

Jones finished as the RB12 mostly because of his pass-catching with a final line of 52 receptions for 391 yards and six touchdowns. What's intriguing is he only had four rushing touchdowns, tying a career low. If this number increases even a small amount and he sees an increase in his receiving workload, he will jump back into the top-10 again. Moreover, even if that does not happen and he drops a few spots, there is no chance he finishes lower than the RB24, outside of injury.

Dillon snuck in as the RB23 after cementing his role as the grinder, closing out the games they were leading in. This was coupled with an increase in his receiving work, averaging about three targets per game from Week 9 onwards. An increased role and the Packers relying more heavily on their rushing attack sets him up for a big season as a top-24 back with top-15 upside.

He is difficult for defenders to tackle, forcing 31 missed tackles and gaining an average of 3.18 yards after contact in 2021, as observed on this touchdown run.

Duo #3 - Chubb and Hunt (Cleveland Browns)

While this duo did not technically land here last year, they were on here in 2020 and on pace to be here again in 2021 before injury struck. Chubb actually finished as the RB11 with over 1,400 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns. Hunt had an awesome start as the RB8 over the first six weeks before getting hurt and eventually finishing as the RB48.

The Browns do not profile as a strong offense with a winning record; however, this duo has the ability to overcome subpar quarterback play in a low-scoring offense as they have done before. Deshaun Watson is currently projected to miss somewhere between four and 17 games this season, leaving Jacoby Brissett to lead this team. Granted, this is not a promising outlook, it will force the team to continue relying heavily on their rushing attack until or if Watson is on the field.

Chubb will again finish with 1,000-plus yards and push for 10-plus touchdowns as a top-15 back, while Hunt soaks up targets in the receiving game, offering him a realistic chance to end as a top-24 back as well.

This highlight showcases the home run play ability Chubb still possesses.

New To The Fold

The next two options have never been on this list but definitely warrant targeting in 2022.

Duo #1 - Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys)

These two were actually quite close last season, finishing as the RB6 and RB28. Thus, it would not be a stretch for them to both land inside the top-24 this season. The Cowboys led the league in points per game and finished second in touchdowns per game. Therefore, they fit the mold of a powerful offense with a strong rushing attack that figures to score a lot of points.

Despite the offseason debate about whether Elliot has lost some of his efficiency and explosiveness, all sides would agree that top-24 is not a high bar for him to meet. He accumulated over 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 12 combined touchdowns in 2021, with a secure workload in a potent offense entering 2022.

Pollard on the other hand was incredibly efficient and effective, with 17 explosive runs (10+ yards), 27 forced missed tackles and an average of 5.5 yards per attempt. He also had 46 targets, a number that could increase with Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson gone and Michael Gallup still recovering from injury.

Here Pollard turns a broken play into a huge touchdown run.

Duo #2 - Devin Singletary and James Cook (Buffalo Bills)

In one of the league's most electrifying offenses, it's easy to get excited about almost every offensive skill position player. The Bills were in the top-five in nearly every offensive metric last season, including third in points per game, third in touchdowns per game, first in red zone opportunities, and first in average scoring margin.

Singletary himself was extremely impressive, ending the year as the overall RB2 during the final six weeks of the season. Obviously, no one views him as a top-five back but with the first and second-down role seemingly locked down to begin the season, he could easily finish inside the top-24, even inside the top-20.

His newest counterpart Cook, the rookie out of Georgia, enters with exceptional pass-catching in his profile, primed to secure the third-down role in this pass-happy offense. There is also a possibility Cook overtakes Singletary during the season and becomes the lead back, which would boost his fantasy finish and odds of finishing inside the top-24. It's also possible they'll both be on the field at the same time with Cook used as a receiver, something he frequently did in college as seen in this clip.

This situation likens to the Broncos last season, where both players are heavily involved and produce for fantasy, ending in that RB15-24 range.

Conclusion

It's important to recognize that some of the most valuable fantasy running backs are in a committee. This is becoming the rule rather than the exception, which requires us as fantasy managers to adjust and adapt.

There will inevitably be at least one duo of teammates that finish in the top-24 this year, if not more, so targeting these situations is an effective way to land valuable players on your roster, many of which come at a relatively low cost. Make sure each of these five duos is on your draft cheat sheet and you are prepared to target them for 2022.

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