RADIO
Training camp is in full swing and so are the daily tweets from beat reporters showing 30-second highlight clips of fades to the corner of the end zone or quick comments from coaches that start to cast doubt on whether we picked the right player this off-season. This is the time of the year where you just need to go with your gut.
What does my gut tell me? It’s telling me I need to buy into these backfields even though they are considered committee situations in the 2018 season. These RBBC have two running backs you could buy into, whether it’s a two-down back that will pound the football or a PPR back relying on receptions, you can invest in both.
On draft day, you should feel comfortable buying into these backfields and building a team around them. As always, different draft strategies could change your outlook on some of these players. Again, when it comes down to those tough situations, always go with your gut.
Running Back Committees to Buy in 2018
Chicago Bears - Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen
This is one of the easiest backfield committees to buy into this year. The Chicago Bears are much improved and while fantasy owners continue to gawk over the wide receivers and tight ends, it’s the run game that will see the biggest upside. The main reason is Mitch Trubisky and not because I expect huge improvements from him, but because he will need to rely on Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen for the offense to run effectively.
Howard will lose value in PPR leagues but still carries RB2 upside while Cohen would lose almost all value in standard leagues. Last year, Cohen had 53 receptions for 353 yards in the stale John Fox offense that lacked creativity and big play ability. Enter Matt Nagy who will be the opposite and knows how to get the ball in his playmakers' hands. Howard is going to be reliable on the ground again and land in the RB10 to RB14 range that he has been his first two seasons. Where will Cohen’s ceiling end up?
Cohen could have a ceiling of around 60 receptions which isn’t much more than last season, but now that the Bears have better weapons at receiver and tight end, it could lead to much larger plays from Cohen. Instead of averaging 6.7 yards per reception, Cohen could see more than 10 yards per reception. That small bump could be more than enough to make Cohen a weekly flex play in PPR leagues.
Carolina Panthers - Christian McCaffrey, C.J. Anderson
There are still a lot of Christian McCaffrey owners who don’t believe C.J. Anderson will affect the Carolina Panthers backfield. It’s going to happen folks, but the outcome isn’t that damaging for McCaffrey. There was going to be some regression regardless of who was added to the backfield because McCaffrey won’t see nearly as many targets as last season. That doesn’t mean they can’t both survive together though.
There will be plenty of opportunities and touches for these two. McCaffrey is going to be a very safe RB2 floor play but with little upside due to a healthy Greg Olsen and Curtis Samuel plus the addition D.J. Moore. If Anderson could manage 200 carries this season, that would only be 30 less than Mark Ingram in 2017. If Anderson can hit his 4.4 average yards per carry, he’ll run for over 800 yards this year and for the fun of this exercise, let’s project Anderson for six touchdowns, the same Jonathan Stewart had last season. This is playing it safe with Andersons 2018 outlook, but it would put him around 124 points, which would have been RB40 last year. In 2018, McCaffrey equals high floor and low ceiling, while Anderson equals low floor and high ceiling. Feel free to add both.
Washington Redskins - Chris Thompson
This section was supposed to talk about Derrius Guice and Chris Thompson because they were going to make a great tandem in 2018. However, the day after this article drops, Guice tears his ACL and I need to find a quick edit. I was just going to cut it out completely, but I decided to leave a part about Chris Thompson because I still really want him.
With Alex Smith at the helm last season, the Kansas City Chiefs tied for 12th most targets to running backs with 114. Since Smith is now with a new team, he could look to lean on the running backs a little more until he can develop better chemistry with the recievers, like he did in his first season with the Chiefs back in 2013. During that season, Smith targeted his running backs 234 times, the most in the league.
Through Week 10 last season in PPR leagues, Thompson was the RB11, but he only had one game with double-digit rushing attempts. He can add value even if he doesn’t get the carries. Thompson will be a flex play in PPR leagues at worst this season and who knows, the Redskins could always sign another back or trade for one. I would recommend adding Robert Kelley or Samaje Perine if you are hurting for depth at the position. You never know, they could offer some value.
Baltimore Ravens - Alex Collins, Kenneth Dixon, Javorius Allen
If you’ve had a chance to read any of my previous work or if you follow me on Twitter, you already know my support of Alex Collins this season. The Kenneth Dixon truthers won’t go away, but what they fail to realize is that I think this backfield will have multiple running backs contributing in 2018.
The Ravens have revamped the wide receiving core to help Joe Flacco, but I have no doubt the Ravens want to control the game on the ground still. Baltimore took a step in the right direction last season dropping to 11th in the NFL in passing attempts (567), after being first in 2016 (679) and first in 2015 (676). Even with the addition of new wide receivers, I expect another drop in passing attempts. The New Orleans Saints saw success with a similar game plan. The Saints were second in passing attempts behind the Ravens in 2015 and 2016 but fell to 19th in passing attempts last season while attacking opposing teams with their running backs and stopping them with a much-improved defense.
Now don’t take this as me saying Collins and Dixon or Javorius Allen are going to be comparable to Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. That won’t happen but the similarities between the two teams and their attempt to adjust game plans is hard not to notice. Collins is going to be a solid RB2 this season while either Dixon or Allen will take the role as pass-catching back. Keep an eye on that battle in camp and keep them both on your watch list.
