Running Back Committees to Target for Fantasy Football Drafts - A.J. Dillon, Tyler Allgeier, David Montgomery, more

August 29, 2023

Andersen Pickard addresses four NFL teams expected to run fantasy football running back committee schemes that can be safe draft targets for the upcoming 2023 season.

Running. Back. Committee. One of the scariest phrases in fantasy football. Just typing that gave me chills.

Fantasy football managers often avoid backfield committees, and for good reason. After all, they bring uncertainty. It's not the best idea to spend one of your prized draft picks on a player whose ceiling could be 50 percent of offensive snaps and whose floor is riding the bench for most of the season.

However, not all backfield committees are bad. As NFL teams grow increasingly dependent on multiple running backs, the idea of drafting one or both members of a running back committee has become less daunting. Here are four teams that should be able to find a proper balance in the backfield, making their running backs very solid fantasy football options in 2023.

Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery

The Lions seemed to complicate their backfield by signing David Montgomery to join D'Andre Swift this offseason. Then, the situation became even more murky when they spent a first-round pick on Jahmyr Gibbs. However, a subsequent trade sending Swift to the Eagles answered important questions and provided clarity about this backfield heading into 2023.

Gibbs was the second running back off the board, though the Lions claim they would have been comfortable taking him sixth overall when Bijan Robinson was still available. Regardless of whether that's true, the hype around Gibbs is real. He posted 926 rushing yards, 444 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns during his final season at Alabama. He also owns an impressive 4.36 40-yard dash time and a strong 25.0 percent college dominator score. He should serve as the Lions' primary pass-catching option out of the backfield while also sharing hand-offs with Montgomery.

Meanwhile, Montgomery stays in the NFC North after totaling 801 rushing yards, 316 receiving yards, and six touchdowns through 16 games with the Bears last season. He played 64.7 percent of snaps, finishing the year with 37 red-zone touches and 81 evaded tackles. He also showed promise as a pass-catcher in 2022 but could drift away from that role in Detroit. Still, he is a physical runner with strong instincts and could pick up right where Jamaal Williams (1,139 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns) left off.

With Gibbs handling a large receiving role and Montgomery getting red-zone work, there is room for both backs to thrive. Both players have shown they can handle large volumes, which bodes very well for their ability to co-exist this coming season. There's no need to stay away from the Lions' lead-backs in 2023.

Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier

Given how Allgeier exceeded expectations as a rookie last year, it seemed like the Falcons could afford to wait until the third or fourth rounds of the draft to add another running back. Keyword: seemed. In actuality, Atlanta spent its first-round pick on Robinson, the consensus No. 1 running back in the draft.

Allgeier was a late bloomer in 2022, but once he started to perform, he didn't slow down. From Weeks 15 to 18, Allgeier totaled 79 carries, 431 rushing yards, six catches, 52 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Over that span, he ranked as the RB5 overall in PPR leagues, putting him ahead of studs like Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs. Perhaps most promising is that Allgeier's four-week span of dominance coincided with Desmond Ridder's first four starts in the NFL. The two rookies developed an instant rapport, and there's reason to be excited about both players in 2023.

Robinson, meanwhile, is one of this decade's top running back prospects. In addition to totaling 3,316 yards and 35 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Texas, he also produced impressive metrics and workout results, ultimately leading to his selection at No. 8 overall.

Robinson is a consensus top-12 fantasy running back and is even being selected in the first round of some drafts, so there's no denying the hype. He's a high-end option regardless of the players around simply because of his young legs and the ways in which he can dominate the running game.

Yet, there is also room for Allgeier to exist. Last season, the Falcons had the lowest carry rate for their RB1 among all 32 NFL teams. What does this mean? When Atlanta dialed up a run play, it gave the ball to its RB1 just 56 percent of the time. Its RB2, RB3, and other players handled the remaining 44 percent. Not only was 56 percent the lowest mark in the NFL, but it was an enormous distance away from a team like the Las Vegas Raiders, who boasted an 89.6 percent carry rate for its RB1.

With Robinson on the roster, Atlanta's RB1 carry rate is likely to increase, so maybe we can't expect the backfield to operate exactly as it did in 2022. Still, the data shows that the Falcons are unafraid to disperse touches among its running backs. Arthur Smith raved about Allgeier earlier this offseason, and Robinson ran some routes as a wide receiver early in OTAs. There is clearly an opportunity for both players to get on the field and thrive this coming season, so there's no reason to avoid either young back.

Green Bay Packers: Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon

Perhaps the most often discussed and trusted running back tandem over the past couple of seasons is the two-headed monster in Green Bay. Jones and Dillon are dominant in both the rushing and receiving attacks, helping to keep the Packers relatively competitive even after Davante Adams was traded away last year.

Last season, Jones owned a 13.4 percent target rate and 81.9 percent catch rate, dropping just six passes over the whole year. In the rushing attack, he created 893 and plays behind a very strong offensive line.

Dillon, meanwhile, had a slow start to the season but came on strong over the final two months. He averaged an impressive 14.5 points per game from Weeks 12 to 17, ranking sixth among all NFL running backs and producing 4.1 points per week more than Jones during that span. Among some of Dillon's most impressive statistics were his 60 evaded tackles, 7.4 yards per reception, and four drops.

Green Bay's 456 rushes in 2022 ranked right in the middle of the NFL, and yet Jones and Dillon were both able to co-exist. Now, with Aaron Rodgers and Allen Lazard gone, the expectation is that the Packers and new starting quarterback Jordan Love will rely on an even heavier rushing attack. We can realistically project Jones as a top-12 fantasy running back while Dillon, who is more than a handcuff at this point, is a top-24 option with upside.

Washington Commanders: Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson

One of the most polarizing committees in football is the one that exists in Washington, D.C., where Robinson and Gibson are working on carving out their own roles in a mediocre-at-best offense. Despite concerns about the coaching staff, poor quarterback play, and the running backs' respective skill sets, all signs point to both Robinson and Gibson being viable fantasy options in 2023, especially at their current price tags.

The fantasy football community has been relatively low on Gibson despite him finishing as the RB13, RB12, and RB27 over his three seasons in the NFL. He has consistently been a steady RB2/FLEX play, showing off the pass-catching skills that made him such an appealing prospect when he was coming out of Memphis. Although the 2022 season wasn't the greatest for Gibson, who missed two games and took a backseat behind Robinson, there's reason to be optimistic heading into 2023.

With J.D. McKissic released and Eric Bieniemy taking over as Washington's offensive coordinator, Gibson has a chance to excel. Look no further than Jerick McKinnon, who thrived in Bieniemy's system and was the RB5 in PPR leagues from Weeks 9 to 17 last season. Head coach Ron Rivera recently mentioned that Gibson could become a "matchup nightmare" for opposing defenses, presumably alluding to his ability to catch passes and pick up yardage. He has the opportunity to deliver steady production in Bieniemy's system, all while serving as a reliable security blanket for Sam Howell.

Then, of course, there's Robinson, who is less polarizing than Gibson but is still being undervalued in fantasy drafts. The rookie made a remarkable return after being shot during an armed robbery last August. He went on to total 797 rushing yards, 60 receiving yards, and three touchdowns through 12 games. We know his role heading into 2023: plenty of touches on the ground and heavy usage around the goal line, which makes up for his lack of production in the receiving attack.

With Robinson handling early downs and goal-line situations and Gibson filling a key role that figures to give him plenty of receptions and yardage, these two backs should complement each other quite nicely in 2023. Robinson's ADP of 104.5 ranks him as the RB36 overall while Gibson's ADP of 95.2 translates to RB31. Both have RB2/FLEX appeal, and intelligent fantasy managers will have no qualms about rostering both backs in 2023.

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