Evaluating MLB Rookie Performances for Fantasy Baseball - Week 10

September 19, 2020

Rookies and prospects who have recently been called up to the Major Leagues. Andrew Ericksen evaluates the most relevant rookies for Week 10 of the 2020 fantasy baseball season.

While this past week didn’t feature as many headline-grabbing MLB debuts as previous weeks, there was certainly no shortage of prospect call-ups around the league.

It’s going to be hard for any call-ups going forward to make a difference in the 2020 fantasy season, but the five players below are all players who have dynasty league implications.

One more time, we’ll take a look at how these top prospects should all be valued as we go into the final stretch of the 2020 season.

Braxton Garrett (SP, MIA)

Miami Marlins pitcher Braxton Garrett made an impressive MLB debut this past Sunday against the Philadelphia Phillies. Garrett pitched five innings and allowed three hits, two walks and one earned run while striking out six.

Garrett mostly found his success with his secondary pitches in his debut. His curveball, which he threw 32% of the time, induced a whiff rate of 38.5%, while his changeup, which he threw 10.7% of the time, earned a whiff rate of 50%. His primary pitch, a four-seamer that had an average velocity of 89.5 miles per hour, wasn’t quite as effective. Phillies batters hit .286 against the pitch and it resulted in his lone run of the day, a solo shot from fellow rookie Alec Bohm in the second inning.

The 23-year-old Garrett split the 2019 season at High-A and Double-A, pitching 106.2 innings and posting a 3.54 ERA and 1.275 WHIP while averaging 10 K/9. The Marlins should have a crowded competition for their rotation next year, but Garrett has a decent shot to make the cut. He doesn’t need to be highly prioritized in dynasty leagues just yet, but if he’s trending towards a rotation spot when spring training comes around next year, he’s worthy of taking a chance on.

Mickey Moniak (OF, PHI)

The first overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Mickey Moniak, made his long-awaited debut as a pinch-runner on Wednesday. The following day, he got his first start and went 0-for-4 with a walk.

Moniak has the makings of an extremely valuable fantasy asset. Last year, over 119 games at Double-A, Moniak hit 11 home runs, 28 doubles and 13 triples while adding 15 stolen bases. He had a slash line of .252/.303/.439.

Now 22 years old, Moniak should still have some developing power upside. The best-case scenario for him is a pesky leadoff hitter with power. Think something like a George Springer type.

It’s a bit of a question as to how long it will take for Moniak to reach his potential and find an everyday role with the Phillies, but there’s no question that he’s a very valuable dynasty league asset. If he underwhelms in the final week of this strange MLB season and his owner gets a bit down on him, jump on the buy-low opportunity.

Tanner Houck (SP, BOS)

It’s been a rough year for Boston baseball, but recently called-up pitcher Tanner Houck at least offered a brief glimpse of positivity. In his MLB debut against the Miami Marlins this past Tuesday, Houck pitched five scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and three walks while striking out seven.

During his debut, Houck saw his low-80s slider register a put-away percentage of 44.4% while his low-90s sinker averaged a remarkable 30.9 inches of vertical drop, 8.4 inches more than league average. Unfortunately, he may have had a bit of luck on his side during the start. He gave up a hard-hit rate of 33.3% and registered an xERA of 4.01.

Houck had a bit of an underwhelming run in the minors coming into this season. Last year, over 107.2 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A, Houck posted a 4.01 ERA and 1.402 WHIP while averaging 8.9 K/9. The previous year, at High-A, his numbers were slightly worse: 4.24 ERA, 1.429 WHIP, 8.4 K/9.

Boston’s complete deficiency of starting pitching right now could lead to Houck having a role on the team next year, but there’s not enough of a proven track record to suggest he’d be able to put together a solid year if he lands a rotation spot.

Zach McKinstry (INF, LAD)

25-year-old Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Zach McKinstry has been floating around in the minors for longer than most of the prospects we’ve featured in this weekly piece. McKinstry was a 33^rd round draft pick of the Dodgers in 2016. Since then, he’s slowly worked his way through the Dodgers’ system, finally leading to his MLB debut this past week, which came as a pinch hitter in Wednesday’s game.

McKinstry had a phenomenal season split between Double-A and Triple-A last year. Over 121 games, he slashed .300/.366/.516 and tallied 19 home runs, 78 RBI, 70 runs and eight stolen bases. He also showed fantastic plate discipline with just 92 strikeouts compared with 43 walks.

McKinstry played second, third and shortstop in the minors. Unfortunately, the Dodgers are so deep with position players, that McKinstry’s versatility might not play a factor right away. Given how impressive his 2019 season was, McKinstry could be as MLB-ready as any prospect we’ve seen this year, but the playing time situation is conversely, about as cloudy as it can get. He needs to be rostered in all dynasty leagues. He might be a bit frustrating next year as the Dodgers will likely platoon him, but his upside if he lands an everyday role is extremely high.

Blake Cederlind (SP, PIT)

Flame-throwing Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Blake Cederlind made his MLB debut on Tuesday, pitching a smooth, hitless sixth inning against the Cincinnati Reds.

Cederlind pitched 59.1 innings through multiple minor league levels last year and posted a 2.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 8.3 K/9. The 24-year-old Cederlind earned a lot of buzz in the Pirates organization this offseason, primarily for his velocity, but he tested positive for COVID-19 in July, which understandably set back his progression.

In his MLB debut, Cederlind threw his fastball six times and it had an average velocity of 98.2 miles per hour, inducing a 25% whiff rate. He only threw one other pitch in the game, a slider that had an average velocity of 89.7 miles per hour and registered a whiff rate of 33.3%.

Look for Cederlind to play a key role in the Pirates bullpen next year. He’s likely to be a setup man, but could also be a dark horse as a potential closer. While his minor league ratios last year were fantastic, his strikeout rate wasn’t high enough to make him a high priority for dynasty owners going into the offseason. Just be ready to keep an eye on spring training developments with him next year.

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